# Padelnomics — Jobs-to-Be-Done Analysis

---

## Customer Segment 1: The Padel Entrepreneur (Primary)

This is your core user — someone considering building a padel facility. They might be a tennis club owner, a real estate developer, a sports enthusiast with capital, or a serial entrepreneur who spotted the padel trend.

### Job Statement

```
When I'm seriously considering investing €200K-2M+ in a padel facility,
I want to validate the opportunity with real data and build a credible financial case,
so I can make a confident go/no-go decision and secure the funding I need.
```

### Job Layers

**Functional Job:**
"I need to figure out if building padel courts in my target area will generate a positive return — what it'll cost, what I'll earn, how long until I break even, and whether the local market can support it."

**Emotional Job (Personal):**
"I want to feel like a smart, diligent investor who did their homework — not like someone who gambled six figures on a hype trend. I need to feel confident that I've stress-tested every assumption before I commit my savings or sign a lease."

**Social Job:**
"I want my business partner / spouse / bank / investors to see me as someone who made a rigorous, data-driven decision. When I present this plan, I need it to look professional and thorough — not like something I built in a spreadsheet at midnight."

**Why all three matter for Padelnomics:** Most competitors (Padelfinder, generic spreadsheet templates) address the functional job partially at best. Nobody addresses the emotional and social jobs. The entrepreneur lying awake at 2am wondering "am I making a huge mistake?" — that anxiety is where Padelnomics creates loyalty. The bank meeting where they present a professional business plan instead of a napkin sketch — that's where Padelnomics justifies premium pricing.

### Struggling Moments

These are the specific triggers that send someone searching for a solution:

1. **"I've been talking about this for months and I need to decide."**
   The entrepreneur has been casually interested in padel for a while. Maybe they play. Maybe they saw a friend's facility. Something tips them from casual interest to "I need to actually run the numbers." Often triggered by: a specific property becoming available, a partner saying "let's do this," or seeing a competitor open nearby.

2. **"The bank asked for a business plan and I have no idea what to put in it."**
   They've decided to pursue it but hit the financing wall. Banks want projections, DSCR ratios, sensitivity analysis. They're staring at a blank Excel sheet feeling overwhelmed. They Google "padel court business plan" or "padel court ROI."

3. **"I found conflicting information and I don't know what to trust."**
   One article says padel courts cost €25K each, another says €60K. One consultant says 60% utilization is realistic, another says 40%. They're paralyzed by contradictory data and need a single source of truth.

4. **"A competitor just opened 20 minutes away and I need to know if there's still room."**
   Market timing pressure. They thought they had first-mover advantage but now someone else is building. They need to quickly assess whether the market can support another facility.

5. **"My partner/spouse is skeptical and I need proof this isn't crazy."**
   The social job in action. They need ammunition for a conversation at home. A professional-looking financial model carries more weight than "trust me, padel is booming."

### Four Forces of Switching

```
FORCES PUSHING TOWARD PADELNOMICS:          FORCES RESISTING SWITCH:

1. PUSH OF CURRENT SITUATION                3. ANXIETY OF THE NEW
   "I've spent 3 weeks on a spreadsheet        "Can I trust these numbers? What if
    and I still don't know if the numbers        the model has wrong assumptions
    are right. I keep second-guessing            for my market? I'm basing a huge
    every assumption."                           decision on a tool I just found."

   "I found Padelfinder but they just           "What if I input my data and the tool
    connect me with builders — they               says it's a bad idea? Do I trust that
    don't help me figure out if I SHOULD          more than my gut feeling?"
    build in the first place."
                                             4. HABIT OF THE PRESENT
   "I hired a consultant for €5K and he         "I already started my own spreadsheet
    gave me a generic PDF that doesn't           and put 20 hours into it. Switching
    let me change any assumptions."              feels like wasting that time."

2. PULL OF PADELNOMICS                          "My accountant friend offered to help
   "60+ variables I can tweak, instant           me build a model for free. I'd feel
    recalculation, sensitivity analysis —         bad going to a tool instead."
    this is exactly what I was trying
    to build in Excel."                         "I don't need fancy software. A
                                                 spreadsheet is fine. I just need to
   "It looks professional enough to              know the basics."
    show to a bank. That alone saves
    me €2-5K in consulting fees."

   "They also connect me with builders
    and financing — so it's not just
    planning, it's the whole journey."
```

**The math:** Push + Pull easily exceeds Anxiety + Habit for anyone who's seriously considering a €200K+ investment. The key unlock is reducing Anxiety — specifically around data trust and accuracy. If someone believes your numbers are reliable, the switch is a no-brainer.

**Actionable implications:**

| Force | What Padelnomics Should Do |
|-------|--------------------------|
| **Amplify Push** | Marketing copy should use their exact language: "Stop guessing. Stop second-guessing your spreadsheet." Show the pain of bad decisions — "Facilities that got their utilization estimate wrong by 10% lost €X in year one." |
| **Strengthen Pull** | The public calculator IS the pull. Let them experience the value before signing up. The instant recalculation, the professional metrics (IRR, MOIC, DSCR) — these signal "this is serious." |
| **Reduce Anxiety** | This is your #1 priority. Show methodology. Cite data sources. Display "Based on market data from X venues." Add testimonials from people who used the tool to successfully secure funding. Consider a "How accurate is this?" explainer page. |
| **Break Habit** | Allow spreadsheet import ("Already have a model? Import your assumptions"). Don't make them start from zero. Acknowledge their existing work and build on it. |

### Current Solutions (What They "Hire" Today)

| Solution | Hired Because | Fired Because |
|----------|--------------|---------------|
| **DIY spreadsheet** | Free, full control, feels productive | Takes weeks, no benchmarks, looks amateur to banks, constant second-guessing |
| **Hired consultant** (€3-10K) | Expertise, credibility, professional output | Expensive, slow (4-8 weeks), static document you can't tweak, often generic |
| **Padelfinder lead gen form** | Quick, connects to builders | Doesn't answer "should I build?" — skips straight to "who builds it?" |
| **Talking to builder sales reps** | Free, they're eager to help | Biased — builder always says "yes, build!" They sell courts, not objectivity |
| **Doing nothing / waiting** | Safe, no risk | Costs opportunity as competitors move, anxiety grows, market moves on |
| **Generic business plan templates** | Cheap (€20-50), structured format | Not padel-specific, wrong assumptions, still need to research every number |

**Key insight:** The most dangerous competitor isn't another tool — it's the DIY spreadsheet and the biased builder sales rep. Together, they give the entrepreneur a false sense of confidence. Padelnomics needs to position against these: "Your spreadsheet doesn't know the market. Your builder wants to sell you courts. You need an unbiased planning tool."

---

## Customer Segment 2: The Court Builder / Supplier (Revenue Side)

### Job Statement

```
When I'm trying to grow my padel court construction business in a booming but chaotic market,
I want a reliable stream of qualified prospects who are seriously planning to build,
so I can focus on closing deals instead of chasing cold leads.
```

### Job Layers

**Functional Job:**
"I need to find people who are actually going to build padel courts — not tire-kickers, not people who are 'just exploring.' I need leads with budgets, timelines, and locations so I can prioritize my sales effort."

**Emotional Job:**
"I want to feel like I have visibility into where the market is going — not like I'm flying blind, reacting to random inquiries. I want to feel in control of my pipeline."

**Social Job:**
"I want to be seen as the go-to builder in my region. When someone thinks 'padel court,' I want to be the first name that comes up. My profile and presence should signal quality and credibility."

### Struggling Moments

1. **"We quote 20 projects but only close 3. Most leads aren't serious."** Quality over quantity. They waste time on entrepreneurs who are years away from building.

2. **"A new competitor opened in our region and they're undercutting on price."** They need market intelligence to know where demand is shifting and how to differentiate.

3. **"We have capacity to take on 5 more projects this quarter but our pipeline is thin."** Sales pressure. They need lead flow they can rely on, not feast-or-famine.

4. **"I keep hearing padel is growing in [new region] but I don't know if it's worth expanding there."** Market expansion decisions without data.

### Four Forces

| Force | Builder-Specific Pattern |
|-------|------------------------|
| **Push** | "Trade shows cost €10K+ and generate mediocre leads. Google Ads are expensive. Cold outreach has a 2% response rate. Our current lead gen is expensive and unreliable." |
| **Pull** | "Padelnomics leads have already run financial projections — they're serious. They've thought about budget, timeline, and location. That's a qualified lead." |
| **Anxiety** | "What if the lead quality is low? What if we pay for a subscription and get 2 leads/month? What if we're just listed alongside our cheapest competitor?" |
| **Habit** | "We've always relied on trade shows and referrals. That's how this industry works. A website sending us leads feels... new." |

**Actionable implications:**
- **Reduce anxiety** by offering a free trial period (3 months of leads, then convert to subscription)
- **Break habit** by showing ROI math: "Your average project is worth €50K+. If we send you 5 qualified leads/month and you close 1, that's €50K revenue for €249/mo."
- **Differentiate your leads** — emphasize that Padelnomics leads have already built financial models. They're not browsing. They're planning.

### Current Solutions

| Solution | Hired Because | Fired Because |
|----------|--------------|---------------|
| **Padelfinder** | Established, has traffic in Germany | Generic leads, no qualification, don't know if lead is serious |
| **Trade shows (FSB Cologne etc.)** | Face-to-face, relationship building | €10K+ per event, 2-3 per year max, many tire-kickers |
| **Google/Meta Ads** | Immediate traffic, targetable | Expensive (€20-80/click), landing page optimization is a full-time job |
| **Referrals from existing clients** | Highest quality, trust built in | Unpredictable, can't scale, depends on client satisfaction |
| **Sportstaettenrechner** | Broader reach (all sports facilities), established | Not padel-specific, leads mixed with football/tennis/etc. |

**Key insight:** Padelnomics leads are qualitatively different from any other lead source because the entrepreneur has already modeled their financials. A builder receiving a lead that includes "6 courts, indoor, €400K budget, targeting 55% utilization, Berlin area, 2026 Q3 timeline" can write a targeted proposal in an hour instead of spending 3 calls qualifying a vague inquiry.

---

## Customer Segment 3: The Operating Venue Owner (Future — Retention Play)

### Job Statement

```
When I'm running a padel facility and can't tell if my performance is good or bad
compared to similar venues,
I want benchmarks and market data specific to my type of venue and region,
so I can identify what to fix, price optimally, and spot problems before they become crises.
```

### Job Layers

**Functional Job:**
"I need to know if 52% utilization is good or bad for a 6-court indoor facility in my city, whether my €45/hour pricing is leaving money on the table, and whether the new facility opening 15km away is going to kill my business."

**Emotional Job:**
"I want to feel confident I'm running this well — not constantly anxious that I'm missing something obvious. I opened a padel facility because I love the sport, but now I'm drowning in operational decisions I'm not sure I'm getting right."

**Social Job:**
"When my investors ask how we're doing relative to the market, I want to give them a data-backed answer — not 'I think we're doing fine.'"

### Struggling Moments

1. **"A new competitor just opened nearby."** Immediate threat. They need to know how this will affect them and how to respond.

2. **"Our midweek utilization dropped 15% and I don't know why."** Something changed but they don't have enough data to diagnose it.

3. **"Quarterly board meeting is next week and they're going to ask about market comps."** Social job pressure — they need benchmarks to present.

4. **"I think we're underpricing but I'm scared to raise prices and lose players."** Pricing paralysis from lack of market data.

### Four Forces

| Force | Operator-Specific Pattern |
|-------|-------------------------|
| **Push** | "I have Playtomic's basic dashboard but it just shows MY bookings. I have no idea how I compare to anyone else." |
| **Pull** | "Padelnomics shows me anonymized benchmarks from venues like mine. I can see I'm 12% below average utilization and it tells me where to look." |
| **Anxiety** | "Is the benchmark data actually accurate? How many venues is it based on? What if my 'comparable' venues are nothing like mine?" |
| **Habit** | "I've been running this venue for 2 years based on gut feel. It's been fine. Do I really need a dashboard?" |

**Key DaaS insight:** This is the segment where your Playtomic scraping data becomes mission-critical. Operators can't benchmark themselves without market data. Nobody else aggregates this. Your data moat IS the product for this segment.

---

## Customer Segment 4: The Financing Partner (Ancillary Revenue)

### Job Statement

```
When I'm evaluating loan applications for sports facility projects I don't fully understand,
I want standardized financial models and market validation specific to padel,
so I can assess risk accurately and approve deals faster without becoming a padel expert myself.
```

### Job Layers

**Functional Job:**
"I need to assess whether this padel facility will generate enough cash flow to service the debt. I need industry-standard metrics: DSCR, utilization benchmarks, comparable venue performance, market growth data."

**Emotional Job:**
"I want to feel confident I'm not approving a vanity project. Padel is new to me — I've financed gyms and tennis clubs but this feels different. I need reassurance this is a real industry."

**Social Job:**
"If this loan defaults, my credit committee will ask me what due diligence I did. I need to show I used industry benchmarks, not just the borrower's optimistic spreadsheet."

### Struggling Moment

"An entrepreneur just submitted a loan application for a €500K padel facility. The business plan looks decent but I have no way to validate their utilization and revenue assumptions. I need market comps."

**Implication for Padelnomics:** Padelnomics business plan exports should be specifically designed to answer a lender's questions — DSCR, sensitivities, market comps, break-even analysis. When a lender sees a Padelnomics plan, it should instantly signal: "This person did their homework, and these numbers are benchmarked against real market data." This is a distribution channel, not just a feature — if lenders start requesting Padelnomics plans as part of due diligence, you've created a pull mechanism where borrowers MUST use your tool.

---

## Competitive Job Map

```
                    SERVES THE FUNCTIONAL JOB WELL
                              ↑
                              |
   Hired consultant           |          Playtomic (for operators)
   (€5-10K, accurate          |          (has booking data, but
    but static, slow,         |           only for their own venue,
    expensive)                |           no market benchmarks)
                              |
  ←───────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────→
  DOESN'T SERVE               |         SERVES THE
  EMOTIONAL/SOCIAL JOB        |         EMOTIONAL/SOCIAL JOB
                              |
   DIY spreadsheet            |          ★ PADELNOMICS ★
   (functional-ish but        |          (serves functional job +
    makes you feel anxious    |           makes you feel confident +
    and look amateur)         |           makes you look professional)
                              |
   Builder sales reps         |
   (biased info, makes you    |
    feel sold to)             |
                              |
   Padelfinder                |
   (skips the planning job    |
    entirely — just leads)    |
                              |
                              ↓
                    DOESN'T SERVE THE FUNCTIONAL JOB
```

**Padelnomics occupies the ideal quadrant:** Strong on functional (60+ variable model, real metrics) AND strong on emotional/social (feels professional, looks credible to banks, reduces anxiety through data).

The vulnerable competitors are:
- **DIY spreadsheets** — serve functional job poorly, emotional/social job not at all
- **Builder sales reps** — actively harmful to the emotional job (you feel sold to, not informed)
- **Padelfinder** — doesn't even attempt the planning job

The serious competitor is:
- **Hired consultants** — serve functional well but fail on emotional (it's their model, not yours — you can't tweak it) and are prohibitively expensive for most indie padel entrepreneurs

---

## Key Non-Obvious Insights

**1. The job is never "I need a calculator."**
It's "I need to feel confident committing €200K+ of my money/my investors' money to this project." The calculator is the vehicle. Confidence is the destination. Every feature, every UI decision, every piece of copy should be evaluated against: "Does this increase the user's confidence?"

**2. The social job is wildly underserved and is your pricing lever.**
Nobody else helps padel entrepreneurs look professional in front of banks and investors. A PDF business plan export with real metrics, market benchmarks, and sensitivity analysis is worth €2-5K in consulting fees. You can charge €39-79/mo because the alternative is a €5K consultant. The social job justifies premium pricing.

**3. The most important trust signal is methodology transparency.**
For a DaaS product, anxiety about data accuracy is the #1 churn driver. One bad number in a financial projection could cause someone to lose faith in the entire platform. Show your work: "Utilization benchmark of 58% based on aggregated data from 340 venues across Germany, Q4 2025." Cite sources. Show sample sizes. This is what Bloomberg does — the data is only valuable if people trust it.

**4. Builders don't just want leads — they want intelligence.**
The subscription that retains builders long-term isn't "X leads per month" (that's transactional and they'll churn when leads dry up). It's "here's where the market is going" — demand heatmaps, pipeline visibility, pricing trends. That's ongoing value that justifies ongoing payment even in slow months.

**5. The struggling moment for operators IS the moment you acquire them.**
An operating venue owner doesn't think about benchmarking until something goes wrong — a competitor opens, utilization drops, or an investor asks a hard question. Your marketing for the Operate stage should target these crisis moments: "New competitor opening nearby? See how it will affect your market." This is Google Ads gold — high intent, high anxiety, high willingness to pay for answers.

**6. Lenders as a distribution moat.**
If you can get 2-3 banks to recommend Padelnomics business plans as part of their loan application process, you've created a pull mechanism that competitors can't replicate. The entrepreneur doesn't choose Padelnomics — their bank requires it. This turns a push marketing challenge into a pull distribution advantage.

---

## Implications Matrix

| Insight | Product Implication | Marketing Implication | Pricing Implication |
|---------|--------------------|-----------------------|--------------------|
| The job is confidence, not calculation | Every screen should reinforce "you're making a smart decision" — green/red indicators, benchmark comparisons, risk flags | Lead with "Make confident decisions" not "Calculate your ROI" | Anchor to consulting fees avoided (€5K), not to software cost |
| Social job is underserved | Business plan PDF export must be beautiful and bank-ready — this is the #1 premium feature | Show before/after: amateur spreadsheet vs. Padelnomics output | Business plan export alone justifies €39-79/mo |
| Anxiety about data kills DaaS | Show methodology everywhere, cite sources, display sample sizes, add "data freshness" indicators | Testimonials should focus on "I trusted the data and it was right" stories | Offer money-back guarantee anchored to data accuracy |
| Builders want intelligence, not just leads | Build market intelligence dashboard, not just a lead inbox | Sell "unfair market advantage" not "leads" | Tiered pricing by intelligence depth, not lead count |
| Operator struggling moments = acquisition triggers | Build "Competitive Threat Alert" as a hook product — free, email-gated | Google Ads on "new padel competitor opened" / "padel utilization dropping" | Initial month free, then €79-199/mo once they see the data |
| Lender distribution moat | Make the PDF export specifically answer lender due diligence questions (DSCR, comps, sensitivity) | Cold-pitch 5 banks: "When padel loan apps come in, recommend they use Padelnomics" | Consider free tier for bank-referred users (bank pays, not entrepreneur) |

---

## Recommended Switch Interviews

To validate and refine this analysis, talk to these 3 groups:

**Group 1: People who recently built a padel facility (8-10 interviews)**
Focus on their planning journey. "Take me back to when you first decided to seriously pursue this. What did you use to model the financials? What was the hardest part? What almost made you give up? What did you show the bank?"

**Group 2: People who considered building but didn't (5-8 interviews)**
The most valuable group. "What stopped you? Was it the numbers? Uncertainty? Couldn't get financing? What would have changed your mind?" These reveal the exact anxieties and habits you need to overcome.

**Group 3: Builders who receive leads from various sources (5 interviews)**
"What makes a good lead vs. a bad lead? How do you currently find projects? What's the worst part of your sales process? If you could know one thing about the market that you don't know today, what would it be?"

These interviews aren't for validating willingness to pay — they're for understanding existing behavior and refining your job statements. Willingness to pay gets validated through the landing page, calculator usage, and builder outreach you're already doing.

---

## Landing Page Rewrite (Based on JTBD)

Current headline: "Plan Your Padel Business in Minutes, Not Months"
This is good but functional. Here's a JTBD-informed version:

```
HEADLINE:     Make your padel investment with confidence, not guesswork
SUBHEADLINE:  The financial planning platform that helps padel entrepreneurs
              build investor-ready business cases in minutes
PUSH:         "Stop second-guessing your spreadsheet. Stop paying €5K for
              a consultant's static PDF. Stop relying on builder sales reps
              to tell you the numbers work."
PULL:         "60+ variables. Sensitivity analysis. Bank-ready metrics.
              Real market benchmarks. All updated as the market moves."
SOCIAL PROOF: "Used by X entrepreneurs to plan €Xm+ in padel investments"
              (even if X is small — "47 entrepreneurs" is more credible
              than no number at all)
ANXIETY FIX:  "Start free. No credit card. Your data stays private."
CTA:          "Start Your Plan — Free"
```
