# Padelnomics — Content Strategy & Launch Plan

> Living doc. Last updated: 2026-02-25.
> Related: `docs/MARKETING.md` (channel strategy), `scratch/padel-hall-guide.md` (content source material)

---

## Status of Existing GTM Documentation

| Doc | Status | Notes |
|-----|--------|-------|
| `docs/MARKETING.md` | ✅ Active source of truth | Full channel strategy, audiences, revenue phases, timelines |
| `research/PLAN.md` | ⚠️ Superseded | Good phase reference but MARKETING.md overrides |
| `memory/launch-strategy.md` | ❌ Missing | Referenced in MARKETING.md but never created |
| This file | ✅ Content plan | Cornerstone articles, research sessions, timeline |

---

## The Content Map

The entrepreneur customer journey maps directly to content needs:

| Journey Stage | Question They Ask | Demand Phase | Content Gap? |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Explore** | "Is padel viable in my area?" | Passive | C1 ✅ planned |
| **Plan** | "How many courts? What will it cost?" | Active | C2 ✅ planned |
| **Finance** | "How do I fund this?" | Deciding | C3 + C6 ✅ planned |
| **Build** | "Who builds it? What's the process?" | Deciding | C8 ⚠️ gap — added |
| **Mitigate** | "What can go wrong?" | Deciding | C7 ⚠️ gap — added |
| **Launch** | "How do I price? What's my opening plan?" | Consuming | Phase 3 content |
| **Run** | "How am I performing vs. market?" | Consuming | Phase 3 content |
| **Scale** | "Should I open location #2?" | — | Phase 4 content |

Source material: `scratch/padel-hall-guide.md` — covers all 7 stages, ready to convert to articles.

---

## Pillar Page (write last)

**"The Complete Guide to Building a Padel Hall in Germany (2026)"**

- ~4,000 words, full table of contents, links to all 8 spokes
- Ranks for head terms: "padel halle bauen" / "padel hall guide"
- Every pSEO city page links here; every cornerstone links here
- Write after all 8 spokes exist

---

## Cornerstone Articles (8 Spokes)

### C1 — Investment Case
**"Is Padel Still a Good Investment in 2026? What the Booking Data Actually Says"**

| | |
|---|---|
| Journey stage | Explore |
| Primary keyword | "padel investment 2026" / "ist padel noch profitabel" |
| Unique asset | Playtomic DuckDB occupancy data — proprietary |
| Guide sections | Market & Demand questions + Risk Register (Trend/Fad Risk) |
| Product CTA | Market map + planner |
| **Research session** | 2 hrs: pull DuckDB occupancy trends by quarter, distribution across venues (% >70%, % <40%), fastest-growing cities. Add honest fad risk section (squash comparison from guide) — counterintuitive honesty earns backlinks |

---

### C2 — The Cost Bible
**"How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany in 2026? Complete CAPEX Breakdown"**

| | |
|---|---|
| Journey stage | Plan |
| Primary keyword | "padel halle kosten" / "padel court cost germany" |
| Unique asset | `market-research-padel-costs-2026.md` — real city-level pricing data already collected |
| Guide sections | Financial questions + Expert Financial Calculation (CAPEX table €930K–€1.9M) |
| Product CTA | ROI Calculator |
| **Research session** | 1 hr: data already in `research/market-research-padel-costs-2026.md`. Extract guide's CAPEX table + city pricing data + sensitivity analysis. 90-minute write, not a research session. |

---

### C3 — The Business Plan Article
**"What German Banks Actually Want to See in a Padel Hall Business Plan"**

| | |
|---|---|
| Journey stage | Finance |
| Primary keyword | "padel halle business plan" / "padel business plan bank" |
| Unique asset | Lender perspective: DSCR 1.2–1.5x requirement, covenant compliance — not covered anywhere in padel space |
| Guide sections | Legal & Organizational + Plans You Need to Create + Corporate Finance (covenants) |
| Product CTA | Business Plan PDF (€99) + Business Plan Pro (€39/mo) |
| **Research session** | 3 hrs (highest priority for product linkage): LinkedIn outreach to 5 German sports facility owners — ask what bank financing surprised them. Check current KfW programs (ERP-Kapital für Gründung, Unternehmerkredit). One real quote transforms the article. |

---

### C4 — The Market Report (write FIRST)
**"State of Padel Europe Q1 2026: Market Intelligence Report"**

| | |
|---|---|
| Journey stage | Explore (all stages — PR piece) |
| Primary keyword | Not SEO-primary — email gate + backlinks + brand authority |
| Unique asset | Playtomic data as the entire product |
| Guide sections | Market & Demand questions |
| Product CTA | Email gate → welcome sequence → planner |
| **Research session** | 4 hrs (do before launch): pull DuckDB — total venues by country, occupancy distribution, pricing by country, fastest-growing cities, YoY venue growth. Supplement with FIP player registration stats + national federation press releases from 2025. 10-page PDF. Gate it. |

---

### C5 — The Location Guide
**"Where to Build a Padel Hall in Germany: A Data-Driven Demand Analysis"**

| | |
|---|---|
| Journey stage | Explore → Plan |
| Primary keyword | "padel standort analyse" / "where to open padel hall germany" |
| Unique asset | DuckDB demand gap metric: population density ÷ venue count, weighted by occupancy |
| Guide sections | "How to Decide Where to Build" (8 criteria, all written in guide) |
| Product CTA | City-specific planner scenario + market map |
| **Research session** | 2 hrs: rank top 20 German cities by demand gap score. Layer in destatis.de disposable income data. Create one shareable table. Guide sections convert directly to prose. Hub for all city pSEO pages to link back to. |

---

### C6 — The Financing Guide
**"How to Finance a Padel Hall in Germany: Loans, Grants, and KfW Programs in 2026"**

| | |
|---|---|
| Journey stage | Finance |
| Primary keyword | "padel halle finanzierung" / "padel hall financing germany" |
| Unique asset | KfW program breakdown + Bundesland-specific grants — not covered anywhere in the padel space |
| Guide sections | Corporate Finance (WACC, lease vs. buy, subsidies & grants, VAT, covenant compliance) |
| Product CTA | Business Plan PDF (has financing structure section) |
| **Research session** | 2 hrs: KfW website — find ERP-Kapital für Gründung, Unternehmerkredit. Check NRW.BANK, Bayern Kapital, Investitionsbank Berlin. Note personal guarantee exposure section — most underestimated risk, will be shared widely. |

---

### C7 — The Risk Register *(NEW)*
**"The 15 Risks of Opening a Padel Hall That Most Investors Underestimate"**

| | |
|---|---|
| Journey stage | Plan → Finance |
| Primary keyword | "padel hall investment risks" / "padel halle risiken" |
| Unique asset | DuckDB illustration of competitor cannibalization (city with 3 halls opening in 18 months — occupancy impact visible in data) |
| Guide sections | Risk Register (entire section — 7 categories, already fully written in guide) |
| Product CTA | Planner sensitivity analysis tab directly addresses most of these risks |
| **Research session** | 30 mins: guide is 80% of the article. Only unique layer needed: find a German city in DuckDB where supply surged and per-hall bookings dropped. One visualization. |

---

### C8 — The Build Guide *(NEW)*
**"How to Build a Padel Hall: The 5-Phase Process From Feasibility to Opening Day"**

| | |
|---|---|
| Journey stage | Build |
| Primary keyword | "padel halle bauen" / "how to build a padel hall" |
| Unique asset | Founding member builder quotes: "top 3 mistakes clients make during planning/construction" |
| Guide sections | Steps — In Detail (5 phases, 23 steps, all written) + Product & Scope questions |
| Product CTA | Builder directory ("connect with verified padel hall builders") — highest directory CTR of any cornerstone |
| **Research session** | 1 hr: ask 1–2 founding member suppliers: "Was machen Kunden in der Planungsphase am häufigsten falsch?" Their quotes are the entire unique layer. |

---

## Internal Linking Architecture

```
                    ┌─────────────────────────────────┐
                    │   THE COMPLETE GUIDE (Pillar)    │
                    └────────────┬────────────────────┘
                                 │ links to all 8 spokes
          ┌──────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┐
          ▼                      ▼                          ▼
     [C1: Investment]      [C2: Cost Bible]         [C3: Business Plan]
          │                      │                          │
          ▼                      ▼                          ▼
     [C4: Market Report]   [C5: Location] ◄──── all pSEO city pages
                                 │                          │
                          [C7: Risk Register]     [C6: Financing]
                                                            │
                                                   [C8: Build Guide]
                                                            │
                                                      /directory
                                 │
                         all roads → /planner → email capture
```

---

## Launch Timeline

### Now — Go-live config (hours, not days)
- [ ] Switch Paddle to production
- [ ] Verify Resend production API key
- [ ] Wipe 5 test suppliers (example.com entries)
- [ ] Publish SEO articles from admin panel
- [ ] Submit sitemap to Google Search Console
- [ ] Begin C4 research session (Market Report)

### Week 1
| Day | Action |
|-----|--------|
| 1–2 | Publish State of Padel Q1 2026 PDF (C4) + email gate live |
| 1–3 | Write C2 (Cost Bible) — existing data, low research burden |
| 2–5 | Publish first 50 pSEO city pages (3/day stagger, top cities by DuckDB coverage) |
| 3–5 | 30–50 supplier outreach emails, founding member pitch |
| 5 | C2 published |
| 5–7 | LinkedIn: first 3 posts |

### Week 2
| Day | Action |
|-----|--------|
| 1–3 | Write C1 (Investment Case) — DuckDB data pull |
| 3–5 | LinkedIn outreach: 5 German sports facility owners (C3 interview material) |
| 5–7 | C1 published + LinkedIn + Reddit/Facebook communities |

### Week 3
| Day | Action |
|-----|--------|
| 1–3 | Write C7 (Risk Register) — mostly from guide |
| 3–5 | Write C5 (Location Guide) — demand gap analysis |
| 5–7 | Both published + cross-linked to live pSEO pages |

### Week 4
| Day | Action |
|-----|--------|
| 1–3 | C3 research session (KfW programs + LinkedIn interview results) |
| 3–5 | Write C8 (Build Guide) — use founding member quotes |
| 5–7 | C3 + C8 published |

### Month 2
| | Action |
|---|---|
| Week 5–6 | C6 (Financing Guide) |
| Week 6–7 | Market map UI |
| Week 7–8 | Write Pillar Page (The Complete Guide) — all 8 spokes exist |

---

## pSEO Launch Sequence

**Phase 1 (launch):** Top 50 German cities — those with richest DuckDB rows (highest `padel_venue_count`, most non-null fields).
**Phase 2 (Week 2–4):** DACH tier-2 cities as GSC indexing confirms Phase 1 is healthy.
**Phase 3 (Month 2):** English pages for UK, Netherlands, France.

**Rule:** Any city where data would produce near-identical content to another city → `noindex` until data improves.

Monitor: GSC indexing rate. If <80% of Phase 1 pages indexed within 3 weeks, pause Phase 2 expansion.

---

## Phase 3 Content (Month 3–6)

These require operational data to write well — plan when your user base has matured:

- **"Padel Hall Pricing Benchmarks: What Operators Actually Charge in 2026"** — scraped Playtomic data. Feeds Market Intelligence subscription pitch.
- **"How to Fill Your Courts: The Padel Hall Marketing Playbook"** — "Launch" stage. Precedes operational analytics product.
- **"Padel Hall KPIs: What Good Looks Like at 6/12/24 Months"** — "Run" stage. Uses occupancy benchmarks. Teases benchmarking dashboard.

## Phase 4 Content (Month 6–12)

- **"Should You Open a Second Location? An Expansion Framework"** — "Scale" stage. Cites guide's optionality value and multi-site valuation premium. Enterprise product entry point.
- **"The Padel Franchise Model: Numbers, Risks, and Whether It Makes Sense"** — new segment. Large deal sizes.
- **Country-specific cost bibles** — replicate C2 for UK (data in `market-research-padel-costs-2026.md`), France, Netherlands.
- **Quarterly "State of Padel" reports** — same format as C4, every quarter. Compounds email list. Becomes the industry reference.

## The Newsletter Play (Month 6+)

Once State of Padel reports hit 500+ downloads and email list hits 1,000+: repackage as "The Padel Business Report" — bi-weekly newsletter. Monetize at €200–1,000/week sponsorships from equipment suppliers and builders. Media moat layer on top of data moat.
