merge: Opportunity Score v7 calibration fix

transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/foundation/dim_locations.sql

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
 --   foundation.dim_countries → country_name_en, country_slug, median_income_pps
 --   stg_nuts2_boundaries + stg_regional_income → EU NUTS-2/NUTS-1 income (spatial join)
 --   stg_income_usa       → US state-level income (PPS-normalised)
---   stg_padel_courts     → padel venue count + nearest court distance (km)
+--   foundation.dim_venues → padel venue count + nearest court distance (km)
 --   stg_tennis_courts    → tennis court count within 25km radius
 --
 -- Income resolution cascade:
@@ -137,10 +137,12 @@ us_income AS (
     PARTITION BY m.admin1_code ORDER BY s.ref_year DESC
   ) = 1
 ),
--- Padel court lat/lon for distance and density calculations
+-- Padel venue lat/lon for distance and density calculations.
+-- Uses dim_venues (deduplicated OSM + Playtomic) instead of stg_padel_courts (OSM only)
+-- so Playtomic-only venues are visible to spatial lookups.
 padel_courts AS (
   SELECT lat, lon, country_code
-  FROM staging.stg_padel_courts
+  FROM foundation.dim_venues
   WHERE lat IS NOT NULL AND lon IS NOT NULL
 ),
 -- Nearest padel court distance per location (bbox pre-filter → exact sphere distance)

transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/serving/location_profiles.sql

@@ -19,19 +19,20 @@
 --   10 pts  economic context  — income PPS normalised to 25,000 ceiling
 --   10 pts  data quality      — completeness discount
 --
--- Padelnomics Opportunity Score (Marktpotenzial-Score v6, 0–100):
+-- Padelnomics Opportunity Score (Marktpotenzial-Score v7, 0–100):
 --   "Where should I build a padel court?"
 --   Computed for ALL locations — zero-court locations score highest on supply deficit.
 --   H3 catchment methodology: addressable market and supply deficit use a regional
 --   H3 catchment (res-5 cell + 6 neighbours, ~24km radius).
 --
---   v6 changes: lower density ceiling 8→5/100k (saturated markets hit zero-gap sooner),
+--   v7 changes: country-level supply saturation dampener on supply deficit.
---   increase supply deficit weight 35→40 pts, reduce addressable market 25→20 pts,
+--   Saturated countries (Spain 7.4/100k) get dampened supply deficit (×0.30 → 12 pts max).
---   invert market validation (high country maturity = LESS opportunity).
+--   Emerging markets (Germany 0.24/100k) are nearly unaffected (×0.98 → ~39 pts).
+--   Floor at 0.3 so supply deficit never fully vanishes.
 --
 --   20 pts  addressable market        — log-scaled catchment population, ceiling 500K
 --   15 pts  economic power            — income PPS, normalised to 35,000
---   40 pts  supply deficit            — max(density gap, distance gap); eliminates double-count
+--   40 pts  supply deficit            — max(density gap, distance gap) × country dampener
 --   10 pts  sports culture            — tennis court density as racquet-sport adoption proxy
 --    5 pts  construction affordability — income relative to construction costs (PLI)
 --   10 pts  market headroom           — inverse country-level avg market maturity
@@ -209,17 +210,34 @@ country_market AS (
   WHERE market_score > 0
   GROUP BY country_code
 ),
--- Step 3: add opportunity_score using country market validation signal.
+-- Step 3: country-level supply saturation — venues per 100K at the country level.
+-- Used to dampen supply deficit in saturated markets (Spain, Sweden).
+country_supply AS (
+  SELECT
+    country_code,
+    SUM(city_padel_venue_count)                                             AS country_venues,
+    SUM(population)                                                         AS country_pop,
+    CASE WHEN SUM(population) > 0
+         THEN SUM(city_padel_venue_count) * 100000.0 / SUM(population)
+         ELSE 0
+    END                                                                     AS venues_per_100k
+  FROM foundation.dim_cities
+  WHERE population > 0
+  GROUP BY country_code
+),
+-- Step 4: add opportunity_score using country market validation + supply saturation.
 scored AS (
   SELECT ms.*,
-    -- ── Opportunity Score (Marktpotenzial-Score v6, H3 catchment) ──────────
+    -- ── Opportunity Score (Marktpotenzial-Score v7, H3 catchment) ──────────
     ROUND(
       -- Addressable market (20 pts): log-scaled catchment population, ceiling 500K
       20.0 * LEAST(1.0, LN(GREATEST(catchment_population, 1)) / LN(500000))
       -- Economic power (15 pts): income PPS normalised to 35,000
       + 15.0 * LEAST(1.0, COALESCE(median_income_pps, 15000) / 35000.0)
       -- Supply deficit (40 pts): max of density gap and distance gap.
-      -- Ceiling 5/100k (down from 8): Spain at 6-16/100k now hits zero-gap.
+      -- Dampened by country-level supply saturation:
+      --   Spain (7.4/100k) → dampener 0.30 → 12 pts max
+      --   Germany (0.24/100k) → dampener 0.98 → ~39 pts max
       + 40.0 * GREATEST(
           -- density-based gap (H3 catchment): 0 courts = 1.0, 5/100k = 0.0
           GREATEST(0.0, 1.0 - COALESCE(
@@ -230,6 +248,8 @@ scored AS (
           -- distance-based gap: 30km+ = 1.0, 0km = 0.0; NULL = 0.5
           COALESCE(LEAST(1.0, nearest_padel_court_km / 30.0), 0.5)
         )
+        -- Country supply dampener: floor 0.3 so deficit never fully vanishes
+        * GREATEST(0.3, 1.0 - COALESCE(cs.venues_per_100k, 0.0) / 10.0)
       -- Sports culture (10 pts): tennis density as racquet-sport adoption proxy.
       -- Ceiling 50 courts within 25km. Harmless when tennis data is zero (contributes 0).
       + 10.0 * LEAST(1.0, COALESCE(tennis_courts_within_25km, 0) / 50.0)
@@ -247,6 +267,7 @@ scored AS (
     , 1) AS opportunity_score
   FROM market_scored ms
   LEFT JOIN country_market cm ON ms.country_code = cm.country_code
+  LEFT JOIN country_supply cs ON ms.country_code = cs.country_code
 )
 SELECT
   s.geoname_id,