add research folder with market docs, strategy notes, and KfW files

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

research/padelnomics-master-strategy.md

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+# Padelnomics — Master Strategy Document
+
+*Everything we've discussed, synthesized into one reference. February 2026.*
+
+---
+
+## Table of Contents
+
+1. What Padelnomics Is
+2. Origin & Strategic Context
+3. Positioning & Competitive Landscape
+4. The 7-Stage Customer Journey (Full Product Vision)
+5. Jobs-to-Be-Done Analysis
+6. Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas
+7. Wardley Map & Build vs. Buy
+8. Lean Canvas
+9. Demand-Side Sales & Buying Timeline
+10. Beachhead & Crossing the Chasm
+11. RICE Feature Prioritization
+12. Data Architecture & Flywheel
+13. Monetization Model
+14. Free Tool Flywheel (Finanzfluss Model)
+15. Internationalization Strategy
+16. Sportstaettenrechner Competitive Intelligence
+17. Builder Acquisition Strategy
+18. Ungating Strategy
+19. Revenue Projections & Path to Profitability
+20. Execution Roadmap
+21. Decision Log
+22. Reference Models & Inspirations
+
+---
+
+## 1. What Padelnomics Is
+
+Padelnomics is a DaaS + SaaS intelligence platform for padel court entrepreneurs. It helps anyone considering building, financing, or operating a padel facility make confident, data-driven decisions across the entire lifecycle — from first idea to scaled portfolio.
+
+**One-line positioning:**
+> "The only platform that helps you plan, fund, and build a padel facility with real market data — not guesswork."
+
+**What we are NOT:** A booking platform (that's Playtomic), a player-side app, or a generic sports facility tool (that's Sportstaettenrechner). We serve the supply side of the padel industry exclusively — the people investing €200K-2M+ to build and run padel businesses.
+
+**Current state (Feb 2026):**
+- padelnomics.io is live with a 60+ variable financial planner
+- Quick ROI estimate on homepage (6 inputs)
+- Journey framing: Plan → Finance → Build → Operate
+- Professional metrics: IRR, MOIC, DSCR, cash-on-cash yield
+- No paying customers yet
+- No free public-facing tools (calculator requires signup)
+- No builder partnerships yet
+- No scraped market data yet
+
+---
+
+## 2. Origin & Strategic Context
+
+**Starting point:** Evaluated multiple padel business ideas through a DaaS lens using Kpler (commodity intelligence platform) as the reference model. Kpler bootstrapped for 8 years before taking €200M, was cashflow-positive in its first quarter, and grew to €100M+ ARR by aggregating 500+ data sources for commodity traders.
+
+**Key strategic decisions made:**
+- Avoid competing with Playtomic (player-side booking platform)
+- Target supply-side entrepreneurs and builders instead
+- Start with a calculator/lead gen tool (proven by Sportstaettenrechner model)
+- Layer market intelligence on top over time
+- Build the "Bloomberg for padel entrepreneurs" serving the full lifecycle
+
+**Why DaaS + SaaS hybrid works for padel:**
+- High-stakes decisions: Building courts = €200K-2M+ investment
+- Information asymmetry: Market data (utilization, pricing, density) is fragmented across Playtomic, Google Maps, and anecdotes
+- Willingness to pay: B2B customers making six-figure decisions will pay for decision support
+- Data compounds: Every calculator use, every scrape, every builder quote generates intelligence that makes the platform smarter
+
+---
+
+## 3. Positioning & Competitive Landscape
+
+### Direct Competitors
+
+**Padelfinder (padelfinder.de)**
+- Germany's leading padel court directory
+- Connects entrepreneurs with builders via lead gen
+- Does NOT help with planning, financial modeling, or market intelligence
+- Has SEO authority and builder relationships
+- Padelnomics differentiates by: intelligence over directory, planning over matching
+
+**Sportstaettenrechner (sportstaettenrechner.de)**
+- Generic sports facility calculator + builder directory
+- Covers all sports (padel, tennis, football, etc.) — not padel-specific
+- Proven model: 40,000+ project starters since 2016, 492 monthly inquiries, 19,800 monthly visitors
+- Three-tier builder pricing: Basic (€600/yr), Business (€1,400/yr), Premium (price on request with lead forwarding)
+- Their padel calculator output is a 5-line cost estimate with no revenue projections, ROI, or intelligence
+- Padelnomics differentiates by: padel-only depth, financial modeling, market data, full lifecycle
+
+**Padelonomics (padelonomics.com)**
+- French padel consulting brand (coaching + consulting)
+- Not a software/data platform
+- Potential brand confusion if expanding to France
+- Different product entirely — no conflict for now
+
+### Indirect Competitors
+
+**DIY spreadsheets** — Free, flexible, but takes weeks, no benchmarks, looks amateur to banks
+**Hired consultants (€3-10K)** — Expert output but expensive, slow, static PDF you can't tweak
+**Builder sales reps** — Fast and free but biased (they always say "yes, build!")
+**Doing nothing** — Safe but costs opportunity as competitors move
+
+### Blue Ocean Positioning
+
+Nobody combines: deep financial modeling + real market data + speed + professional output + padel-specific + affordable. That combination is the blue ocean.
+
+**Four Actions Framework:**
+- ELIMINATE: Hands-on consulting, generic sports coverage
+- REDUCE: Builder matching complexity (simple lead forwarding, not full marketplace)
+- RAISE: Market data accuracy, speed to output, professional output quality, objectivity/trust
+- CREATE: Market intelligence layer, lifecycle continuity (plan → operate), self-improving defaults
+
+**One-sentence positioning:**
+> "Unlike consultants who charge €5K for a static PDF, and unlike Padelfinder which skips planning entirely, Padelnomics gives padel entrepreneurs a self-serve intelligence platform to plan, fund, and build their facility with real market data — in minutes, not months."
+
+---
+
+## 4. The 7-Stage Customer Journey
+
+The full product vision maps to a padel entrepreneur's sequential decision process. Each stage has features, monetization, and data flywheel connections.
+
+### Stage 1: EXPLORE (Status: Building)
+**User question:** "Should I build? Where? Is there room in this market?"
+
+**Features:**
+- Padel Market Map — Interactive map of every court in Europe (from Playtomic/Matchi scraping)
+- Location Scorer — 0-100 Padel Opportunity Score for any address
+- Market Reports — Quarterly State of Padel reports
+- Competitor Monitor — Track nearby venues' pricing, availability, utilization
+- Demand Trends — Google Trends + Playtomic search volume by region
+
+**Monetization:** Free public tools (SEO driver) + premium intelligence subscription (€49-149/mo) + data licensing to brands/investors
+**Revenue potential at scale:** €5K-20K/mo
+
+### Stage 2: PLAN (Status: Live)
+**User question:** "What will it cost? What returns can I expect?"
+
+**Features:**
+- Quick ROI Calculator — 5-input public calculator (free, shareable)
+- Full Financial Planner — 60+ variables, 6 analysis tabs (live)
+- Scenario Comparison — Save/compare unlimited scenarios (live)
+- Business Plan Generator — Auto-generate bank-ready PDF (planned)
+- Market-Informed Defaults — Pre-fill with real market data by region (planned)
+- AI Scenario Advisor — Risk flagging, optimization suggestions (future)
+
+**Monetization:** Free calculator (top of funnel) + freemium planner + business plan export (€39-79/mo or €299 one-time)
+**Revenue potential at scale:** €3K-10K/mo
+
+### Stage 3: FINANCE (Status: Started)
+**User question:** "How do I fund this? What terms can I expect?"
+
+**Features:**
+- Financing Marketplace — Match with banks, leasing companies, investors
+- Grant & Subsidy Finder — Database of sports facility grants by country/region
+- Loan Calculator — Model different financing structures
+- Investor-Ready Package — One-click export of complete deal package
+- Financing Benchmarks — Average rates, LTV ratios, deal sizes by region
+
+**Monetization:** Lender lead gen (€200-500/lead) + financing partner subscriptions (€299-499/mo) + grant database
+**Revenue potential at scale:** €5K-15K/mo
+
+### Stage 4: BUILD (Status: Started)
+**User question:** "Who should build my courts? What should I pay?"
+
+**Features:**
+- Supplier Directory — Verified padel court builders and equipment suppliers
+- Quote Request System — Submit details, receive matched quotes
+- Builder Profiles — Portfolio, certifications, reviews, response times
+- Cost Benchmarks — Real construction costs by type, region, specification
+- Project Tracker — Timeline management, milestones, contractor communication
+- Reviews & Ratings — Verified reviews from completed projects
+
+**Monetization:** Builder subscriptions (€99-499/mo tiered) + quote commissions (per-lead or success fee) + equipment affiliate
+**Revenue potential at scale:** €5K-25K/mo
+
+### Stage 5: LAUNCH (Status: Future)
+**User question:** "How do I price? How do I fill courts from day one?"
+
+**Features:**
+- Pricing Strategy Tool — Optimal pricing based on local market data
+- Launch Playbook — Pre-opening marketing, grand opening events
+- Booking System Guide — Platform comparison (Playtomic, Matchi)
+- Marketing Templates — Social media, email, press releases
+- Community Playbook — League setup, events, retention
+
+**Monetization:** Included in Pro plan (extends LTV) + booking platform referral commissions
+**Revenue potential at scale:** €2K-5K/mo
+
+### Stage 6: OPERATE (Status: Future — the long-term cash cow)
+**User question:** "How am I doing vs. the market?"
+
+**Features:**
+- Performance Dashboard — Utilization, revenue per court, peak/off-peak
+- Market Benchmarking — "Your utilization is 48% vs 62% regional average"
+- Pricing Optimizer — Dynamic pricing recommendations
+- Competitive Radar — Monitor nearby venues
+- Revenue Alerts — Notifications when metrics deviate from plan
+- Seasonal Forecasting — Predict demand patterns
+
+**Monetization:** Operator subscription (€79-199/mo per location) + multi-location plans (€149-399/mo) + integration fees
+**Revenue potential at scale:** €10K-30K/mo
+
+### Stage 7: SCALE (Status: Future)
+**User question:** "Should I expand? Where?"
+
+**Features:**
+- Expansion Planner — Model new locations with portfolio-level projections
+- Site Scoring (Advanced) — AI-powered location scoring
+- Portfolio Dashboard — Cross-venue analytics
+- M&A Intelligence — Signals that venues might be for sale
+- Franchise Toolkit — Standardized reporting across franchisees
+
+**Monetization:** Enterprise subscription (€399-999/mo) + M&A advisory referrals + franchise licensing
+**Revenue potential at scale:** €5K-15K/mo
+
+**Total revenue potential across all 7 stages at scale: €35K-120K/mo**
+
+---
+
+## 5. Jobs-to-Be-Done Analysis
+
+*(Full analysis in separate document: padelnomics-jtbd-analysis.md)*
+
+### Primary Segment: The Padel Entrepreneur
+
+**Core Job Statement:**
+> When I'm seriously considering investing €200K-2M+ in a padel facility, I want to validate the opportunity with real data and build a credible financial case, so I can make a confident go/no-go decision and secure the funding I need.
+
+**Three Job Layers:**
+- **Functional:** Figure out if building courts will generate positive returns — costs, revenue, break-even
+- **Emotional:** Feel like a smart, diligent investor who did their homework — not someone who gambled on hype
+- **Social:** Look professional and thorough to bank/investors/spouse — not like someone who built a plan in Excel at midnight
+
+**Key Insight:** The job is never "I need a calculator." It's "I need to feel confident committing €200K+." Confidence is the product. The calculator is the vehicle.
+
+**Struggling Moments (triggers that send people searching):**
+1. "I've been talking about this for months and need to decide"
+2. "The bank asked for a business plan and I don't know what to put in it"
+3. "I found conflicting cost information and don't know what to trust"
+4. "A competitor just opened nearby — is there still room?"
+5. "My partner/spouse is skeptical and I need proof this isn't crazy"
+
+**Four Forces of Switching:**
+- PUSH: "My spreadsheet keeps changing and I don't trust my own numbers"
+- PULL: "60+ variables, instant recalculation, bank-ready metrics — this is what I was trying to build"
+- ANXIETY: "Can I trust these numbers? What if the model has wrong assumptions?"
+- HABIT: "I already started my own spreadsheet and put 20 hours into it"
+
+**Critical action:** Reducing Anxiety is the #1 priority. Show methodology, cite data sources, display sample sizes. One bad number destroys trust forever.
+
+### Secondary Segments:
+
+**Court Builders:** Job = "Get a reliable stream of qualified prospects who are seriously planning to build, so I can focus on closing deals instead of chasing cold leads." Padelnomics leads are uniquely valuable because they come with full financial models attached.
+
+**Operating Venue Owners (future):** Job = "Know if my performance is good or bad compared to similar venues, so I can identify what to fix and price optimally." This is where Playtomic scraping data becomes mission-critical.
+
+**Financing Partners (ancillary):** Job = "Assess risk accurately on padel facility loans without becoming a padel expert." If lenders start recommending Padelnomics plans as part of due diligence, that's a distribution moat.
+
+### Competitive Job Map:
+
+Padelnomics occupies the ideal quadrant: strong on functional (60+ variable model, real metrics) AND strong on emotional/social (professional, credible to banks, reduces anxiety). DIY spreadsheets and builder sales reps are the most vulnerable competitors.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas
+
+*(Full analysis in separate document: padelnomics-strategy-stack.md)*
+
+**Competing factors scored across 6 competitors on 10 dimensions.** Key finding: all competitors cluster predictably — consultants are deep but expensive/slow, DIY is cheap but amateur, Padelfinder skips planning entirely. Nobody offers deep modeling + real data + speed + professional output + padel-specific + affordable.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Wardley Map & Build vs. Buy
+
+**Build (Genesis/Custom — your differentiation):**
+- Padel market intelligence (aggregated data from scraping) — #1 strategic investment
+- Padel-specific financial model — already built
+- Business plan PDF generation — build next
+- Builder lead matching — manual first, systematize later
+
+**Use (Product/Commodity — don't reinvent):**
+- Web scraping frameworks (Scrapy, Playwright) → commodity
+- Auth (Clerk, Supabase) → commodity
+- Payments (Stripe) → commodity
+- Hosting (Vercel, Railway) → commodity
+- Charting libraries → commodity
+- PDF generation → product-stage
+
+**Key insight:** Your entire technical moat lives in two components: the data aggregation pipeline and the padel-specific intelligence layer. Everything else is assembled from off-the-shelf parts.
+
+**Evolution watch:** Padel-specific calculators with real market data are still Genesis. Window is 2-3 years before someone else builds this. Move fast on the data moat.
+
+---
+
+## 8. Lean Canvas
+
+*(Full canvas in padelnomics-strategy-stack.md)*
+
+**Most critical assumptions to validate:**
+1. "Builders will pay for leads from Padelnomics" — validate in week 1 with 5 builder outreach emails
+2. "SEO can drive meaningful traffic to a padel planning tool" — check keyword volumes immediately
+
+**Biggest risk on the canvas:** Channels. SEO strategy is clear but unproven for this specific domain.
+
+---
+
+## 9. Demand-Side Sales & Buying Timeline
+
+**The buying timeline for padel entrepreneurs:**
+
+```
+PASSIVE (3-12 months)     ACTIVE (2-8 weeks)       DECIDING (1-4 weeks)      CONSUMING (ongoing)
+"Padel is booming,        "OK I'm serious,          "I need to choose a       "Am I getting value?
+ I wonder about            what does it cost?         tool, find a builder,     Is my plan on track?"
+ investing..."             What's the ROI?"           approach the bank."
+```
+
+**Critical gap identified:** Padelnomics only serves Active Looking and Deciding phases. Nothing for Passive Looking (6+ months before they're serious). Fix: content marketing that names the struggle before they're ready to plan.
+
+**Three articles to write immediately:**
+1. "Is Padel Still a Good Investment in 2026? The Data Says..." (Passive phase)
+2. "How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany?" (Active phase)
+3. "What Banks Want to See in a Padel Business Plan" (Deciding phase)
+
+**Demand-side pricing validation:**
+- Consultant costs: €5,000-10,000
+- DIY time value: €5,000+ (100+ hours × €50/hr)
+- Sportstaettenrechner: €600-1,400/yr
+- Padelnomics at €39-99/mo = 4-10% of consultant cost → obvious buy
+- Consider starting at €99/mo, not €39 — a customer risking €500K doesn't blink at €99/mo for decision support
+
+---
+
+## 10. Beachhead & Crossing the Chasm
+
+### Pin 1 (Now): Tennis/sports club owners in Germany adding 2-4 outdoor padel courts
+
+**Why this beachhead:**
+- Hair on fire: seeing padel demand from members, competitors adding courts
+- Small enough to dominate: ~500-1,000 tennis clubs considering padel in Germany
+- Talk to each other: DTB, regional federations, strong word-of-mouth
+- Fastest decision cycle: club board vote, not investor pitch
+
+### Bowling Pin Sequence:
+```
+Pin 1 (Now):     Tennis club owners in Germany adding outdoor courts
+Pin 2 (M6-12):   First-time padel facility entrepreneurs in Germany
+Pin 3 (M12-18):  Multi-facility operators and real estate developers in DACH
+Pin 4 (M18-24):  Padel entrepreneurs across Europe (UK, France, Nordics)
+Mainstream:       Default platform for anyone building padel in Europe
+```
+
+### Whole Product for Pin 1:
+- Core: Financial planner with club-specific defaults + scenario comparison
+- Must-have: Business plan PDF for club board + 2-3 builder quotes + financing options
+- Nice-to-have: Member survey template, case study, basic market data
+
+**What you DON'T need for Pin 1:** Operator dashboards, M&A tools, franchise features, AI advisor. Kill these from mental roadmap for 6 months.
+
+---
+
+## 11. RICE Feature Prioritization
+
+### Build Now (Highest RICE):
+| Priority | Feature | RICE Score |
+|----------|---------|-----------|
+| 1 | Public free calculator (no signup, shareable URL) | 1,350 |
+| 2 | Open Tabs 1+2 of planner publicly | 1,280 |
+| 3 | SEO content article | 840 |
+| 4 | "Get Builder Quotes" CTA + manual lead forwarding | 480 |
+| 5 | Playtomic scraping pipeline (strategic, compounds) | 210 |
+
+### Build Next (Weeks 3-8):
+| Priority | Feature | RICE Score |
+|----------|---------|-----------|
+| 6 | Padel Market Map (interactive, from scraped data) | 187 |
+| 7 | Email nurture sequence | 150 |
+| 8 | Programmatic SEO city pages | 90 |
+| 9 | Business Plan PDF export | 80 |
+| 10 | Builder directory page | 48 |
+
+### Park (Months 6+):
+Everything in Operate and Scale stages. Operator dashboards, AI advisors, franchise tools — don't even think about these until 50+ paying customers.
+
+---
+
+## 12. Data Architecture & Flywheel
+
+### Playtomic Scraping Strategy
+
+**Validated API endpoints (confirmed by existing projects: Playskan.com, GitHub CLI tools):**
+- `/api/v1/tenants` — All venue locations + metadata (coordinates, sport type, court count)
+- `/v1/availability` — Real-time slot availability per venue
+
+**Intelligence extractable:**
+- All venue locations + court counts → Market Map, density analysis, whitespace identification
+- Real-time availability → Utilization benchmarks (% booked by time/region/venue type)
+- Pricing per slot → Pricing intelligence (charges by hour/day/region, peak vs off-peak)
+- New venues appearing → Market growth tracking
+- Venues disappearing → Failure signals
+
+**Legal risk:** Playtomic ToS likely prohibits scraping. Mitigation: Don't brand as "Playtomic data," brand as "aggregated market intelligence." Long-term: approach Playtomic as data partner ("we drive entrepreneurs to build courts that end up on your platform").
+
+### Data Flywheel
+
+Every stage generates data that enriches every other stage:
+- Explore → Plan: Market data pre-fills calculator defaults
+- Plan → Finance: Plan data becomes loan application
+- Plan → Build: Project specs enable builder matching
+- Build → Operate: Completed projects become tracked venues
+- Operate → Explore: Operating data = best market intelligence
+- Scale → Finance: Portfolio data enables better lending terms
+- Calculator inputs → Explore: Aggregate demand signals by city
+
+**The moat:** More users → better defaults → better plans → more users. This compounds and becomes impossible to replicate.
+
+---
+
+## 13. Monetization Model
+
+### Revenue Streams (by timeline):
+
+**Immediate (Months 1-3):**
+- Builder lead fees: €100-300/lead (manual forwarding)
+- Target: 10-15 leads/month = €1,000-4,500/mo
+
+**Short-term (Months 3-6):**
+- Builder subscriptions: €99-499/mo tiered (leads + market intelligence)
+- Business plan PDF export: €39-79/mo or €299 one-time
+- Target: 3-5 builders × €199/mo + 15-30 plan subs × €49/mo = €1,300-3,450/mo
+
+**Medium-term (Months 6-12):**
+- Financing lead gen: €200-500/lead
+- Market reports: email-gated (authority builder, not direct revenue)
+- Operator subscriptions begin: €79-199/mo
+
+**Long-term (Year 2+):**
+- Enterprise/franchise plans: €399-999/mo
+- Data licensing to equipment brands, investors, associations
+- M&A advisory referrals
+
+### Builder SaaS Tiers ("Padelnomics for Suppliers"):
+- Starter (€99/mo): 5 leads/mo, 1 country, basic heatmap
+- Growth (€249/mo): 15 leads/mo, 3 countries, full intelligence dashboard
+- Enterprise (€499/mo): Unlimited leads, all markets, API access
+
+### Entrepreneur SaaS ("Padelnomics Pro"):
+- Free: Full calculator, basic market map
+- Pro (€49-99/mo): Save scenarios, business plan PDF, builder quotes, market benchmarks
+- Lifecycle model: subscription evolves from planning → building → operating
+
+---
+
+## 14. Free Tool Flywheel (Finanzfluss Model)
+
+**Reference:** Finanzfluss.de pulls 2.8M monthly visitors using free calculators (ETF-Rechner, Zinsrechner, Sparplanrechner) + topic cluster SEO + content hub architecture. Monetized through affiliate marketing (broker signups).
+
+**Padelnomics applies the same model:**
+
+### Free Public Tools (Traffic Generators):
+
+1. **Padel ROI Rechner** (`/rechner` or `/calculator`)
+   - Free, no signup, shareable URLs
+   - SEO targets: "padel court ROI," "padel business plan," "padel court kosten"
+   - Monetization trigger: "Want full 60-variable model? Sign up" + "Get builder quotes"
+
+2. **Padel Market Map** (`/map` or `/courts`)
+   - Interactive map of every court from Playtomic + Matchi scraping
+   - Programmatic SEO: `/courts/germany`, `/courts/berlin`, `/courts/munich`
+   - Monetization trigger: "Thinking of building here? Run the numbers →"
+
+3. **Location Scorer** (`/score`)
+   - Enter address → 0-100 Padel Opportunity Score
+   - Monetization trigger: "Score looks good. Plan your investment →"
+
+4. **Padel Market Report** (`/reports/q1-2026`)
+   - Quarterly "State of Padel" — free to view, email-gated for PDF
+   - Authority builder — media, investors, industry insiders will cite it
+
+5. **Unit Economics Benchmarks** (`/benchmarks`)
+   - What does a "good" padel venue look like?
+   - Derived from scraped + aggregated data
+
+### The Flywheel:
+```
+Free tools (Map, Calculator, Scorer, Benchmarks)
+  ↓ SEO traffic + social sharing
+  ↓ Users explore, experience data quality
+  ↓ "Want to plan for real?" → Sign up for Planner
+  ↓ Planner usage generates MORE data (inputs, scenarios)
+  ↓ Combined with scraped data → better Market Reports
+  ↓ Reports get cited → more backlinks → more SEO
+  ↓ More traffic → more tool usage → repeat
+```
+
+### Topic Cluster SEO Structure (modeled on Finanzfluss):
+```
+Hub: /padel-business/                  Hub: /rechner/
+  └ /padel-court-kosten/                 └ /padel-roi-rechner/
+  └ /padel-rechner/                      └ /padel-kosten-rechner/
+  └ /padel-markt-karte/                  └ /padel-finanzierung/
+  └ /padel-standort-check/               └ /padel-breakeven/
+  └ /padel-business-plan/
+
+Hub: /markt/
+  └ /markt/berlin/
+  └ /markt/münchen/
+  └ /markt/hamburg/
+  └ /markt/köln/
+```
+
+**Advantage over Finanzfluss:** Dramatically less keyword competition. "ETF Rechner" has thousands of competitors. "Padel Court ROI Rechner" has basically zero. Can rank page 1 in weeks, not years.
+
+---
+
+## 15. Internationalization Strategy
+
+### URL Structure: Subdirectories (permanent decision)
+```
+padelnomics.io/de/rechner/        ← German
+padelnomics.io/en/calculator/     ← English
+padelnomics.io/de/markt/berlin/   ← German market page
+padelnomics.io/en/market/london/  ← English market page
+```
+
+Subdirectories keep all domain authority on one domain. Subdomains or separate domains split SEO.
+
+### What Needs Localization Per Market:
+1. **Language** — UI strings, tool descriptions, SEO content (medium effort)
+2. **Financial defaults** — Currency, tax rates, construction costs, hourly pricing, utilization norms, financing terms (HIGH effort — needs real research per market)
+3. **Market data** — Playtomic scraping covers all of Europe already (low effort for raw data)
+4. **Builder network** — Need separate partnerships per country (HIGH effort, bottleneck for monetization)
+
+### Phased Rollout:
+
+**Phase 1 (Now): German-first, English-aware**
+- Build i18n architecture from day one (`/de/`, `/en/` paths, `hreflang` tags, translatable strings)
+- Fully build out German with proper defaults, content, builder partnerships
+- English as lightweight "catch net" — calculator works with manual country selection (UK/NL/SE presets), market map is pan-European, 2-3 core articles
+
+**Phase 2 (Month 3-6): English expansion based on signal**
+- Look at analytics — if 30% traffic is English, prioritize; if 5%, stay German-focused
+- Pick ONE English market to go deep (probably UK)
+- Research proper defaults, UK-specific content, recruit 2-3 UK builders
+
+**Phase 3 (Month 6-12): Add languages by opportunity**
+- Priority 1: Spanish (Spain is THE padel country, but most competitive)
+- Priority 2: French (booming, less competition)
+- Priority 3: Swedish (most mature per capita, but most speak English)
+- Priority 4: Dutch (growing fast, most Google in English anyway)
+- Priority 5: Italian (big market, needs native language)
+
+### Technical Implementation:
+- Locale files per language (`/locales/de/`, `/locales/en/`)
+- Country-specific financial defaults separate from language (Austrian uses German but needs Austrian tax rates)
+- `hreflang` tags on every page, English as `x-default`
+- Market map is international secret weapon — works pan-European from day one without localization
+
+---
+
+## 16. Sportstaettenrechner Competitive Intelligence
+
+**What they do:** Generic sports facility calculator + builder directory since 2016.
+**Their numbers:** 40,000+ project starters, 492 monthly inquiries, 19,800 monthly visitors.
+**Their model:** Builder subscriptions (€600-2,500/yr) + lead forwarding at Premium tier.
+
+**What their padel calculator actually outputs:** A 5-line cost table. Four line items (court structure, turf, lighting, transport/installation), net/gross totals, and a disclaimer saying "talk to experts." No revenue projections, no ROI, no operating model, no break-even, no intelligence.
+
+**Their real product is the lead, not the calculator.** Pre-selected opt-in checkbox: "I want to save time, use the quote service, and receive quotes from selected providers for comparison." The calculator is a lead capture form disguised as a tool.
+
+**Padelnomics advantage:**
+- Your 60+ variable planner with 6 analysis tabs is in a different universe from a 5-line cost table
+- Your leads come with full financial models (budget, timeline, location, utilization assumptions, ROI projections)
+- A builder receiving a Padelnomics lead can write a targeted proposal in an hour vs. 3 calls to qualify a vague Sportstaettenrechner inquiry
+- Their cost data is suspect (€22,990/court — no foundation, HVAC, permits, architect, contingency)
+
+**Positioning angle:**
+> "Sportstaettenrechner tells you what courts cost. Padelnomics tells you whether you should build them."
+
+> "Eine Kostenschätzung ist kein Business Plan. Bevor Sie mit Herstellern sprechen, sollten Sie wissen, ob sich Ihre Investition rechnet."
+
+---
+
+## 17. Builder Acquisition Strategy
+
+### Phase 1: Free partnerships (Now → Month 3)
+No leverage to charge yet. Pitch: "I send you qualified leads who've already modeled positive ROI. No cost, just confirm 48hr response time."
+
+**Where to find builders:**
+- Padelfinder partner list
+- Sportstaettenrechner padel listings
+- Google "padel court bau/hersteller/supplier europe"
+- LinkedIn search
+- FSB Cologne trade show
+
+### Phase 2: Prove value, then charge (Month 3-6)
+After sending 5-10 leads and 1-2 converting to projects (€25K-100K+ each):
+"I've sent you X leads worth €Z. Moving to partner model: €500/yr listing or €200-300/qualified lead."
+
+### Phase 3: Tiered subscriptions (Month 6-12)
+Once traffic reaches 500+ calculator uses/month:
+- Listed: Free (name + link)
+- Partner: €800-1,200/yr (highlighted, shown in results)
+- Premium: €1,500-2,500/yr or per-lead (direct forwarding, featured in reports)
+
+### Lead Management:
+Don't give out contact data directly. Review and forward leads to 2-3 relevant builders. Track: lead → quote → conversion (proves ROI to builders). This enables per-lead pricing and quality control.
+
+---
+
+## 18. Ungating Strategy
+
+**Decision: Ungate the complete calculator.**
+
+The calculator isn't the product — it's the distribution. Revenue comes from builder leads (AFTER someone uses the calculator), PDF exports (ON TOP of calculator), and market intelligence (separate product). None require the calculator to be gated.
+
+**What stays free (no signup):**
+- Full 6-tab calculator with all metrics
+- Shareable plan URLs
+- Market map browsing
+- Basic benchmarks
+
+**What requires email signup:**
+- Saving multiple scenarios
+- Email alerts on market changes
+- Quote request flow (need contact info anyway)
+- Monthly market updates
+
+**What requires payment:**
+- Business plan PDF export
+- Market-informed defaults
+- Competitive analysis for specific location
+- Operator benchmarking
+
+**Why this works:** A soft capture point after plan completion ("Want to save this? Enter email.") converts better than a hard gate at the front door. Someone who spent 20 minutes tweaking 60 variables WANTS to save their work. And every ungated plan completion is a potential SEO backlink, social share, and data point.
+
+**The Zillow/Finanzfluss model:** Give away the intelligence for free. Monetize the moments of escalation.
+
+---
+
+## 19. Revenue Projections & Path to Profitability
+
+### Path to €3K MRR (Ramen Profitability) — 6 months
+
+| Source | Unit Economics | Volume | Revenue |
+|--------|---------------|--------|---------|
+| Builder lead fees | €150/lead avg | 10 leads/mo | €1,500/mo |
+| Builder subscriptions | €199/mo avg | 3 builders | €597/mo |
+| Business plan export | €49/mo avg | 15 subs | €735/mo |
+| **Total** | | | **€2,832/mo** |
+
+### Longer-term trajectory:
+- Month 1-2: €0-500/mo (builder lead fees, testing)
+- Month 3-4: €500-1,500/mo (builder subs + lead fees + first plan exports)
+- Month 5-6: €1,500-3,000/mo (ramen profitable, data moat accelerating)
+- Month 7-12: €3,000-8,000/mo (operator subs begin, geographic expansion starts)
+- Month 12-24: €8,000-20,000/mo (platform effects, multiple revenue streams)
+
+### Cost structure:
+- Hosting: ~€50/mo
+- Domain + tools: ~€50/mo
+- 12-month runway at €0 revenue: ~€600-1,200 cash
+- Primary cost: founder's time
+
+---
+
+## 20. Execution Roadmap
+
+### This Week (Priority Order):
+1. **Ungate entire calculator** — make all 6 tabs public, no signup required (2 hours)
+2. **Add "Get Builder Quotes" button** in planner results — capture name, email, location, courts, budget, timeline (3 hours)
+3. **Email 5 builders** with free partnership pitch (1 hour)
+4. **Check keyword volumes** for "padel court kosten," "padel ROI rechner," etc. (1 hour)
+5. **Write SEO article:** "How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany in 2026?" (4 hours)
+
+### Weeks 2-3:
+- Launch public free calculator at /rechner with shareable URLs
+- Set up Playtomic scraping pipeline (tenants + availability, daily cron)
+- Post calculator in 5+ padel communities
+- Set up email nurture sequence
+
+### Weeks 4-6:
+- Launch Padel Market Map using scraped data
+- Programmatic SEO city pages
+- Track calculator → quote request conversion rate
+- Write 3-5 more SEO articles
+
+### Weeks 7-10:
+- Build Business Plan PDF export (first premium feature)
+- Launch builder directory page
+- Introduce first paid builder partnerships
+
+### Weeks 11-14:
+- Publish "State of Padel Q1 2026" market report
+- Email-gate PDF, promote everywhere
+- Evaluate English market traction in analytics
+
+### Month 5+:
+- Location Scorer
+- Market-informed defaults
+- Operator benchmarking (if demand signal exists)
+- Geographic expansion decision
+
+---
+
+## 21. Decision Log
+
+| Decision | Rationale | Revisit When |
+|----------|-----------|-------------|
+| Beachhead = German tennis clubs | Smaller deals but faster cycle, strong WoM networks | If conversion <2% after 3 months |
+| Ungate entire calculator | Distribution > lead capture; Finanzfluss/Zillow model | If zero conversions after 1,000 uses |
+| Builder revenue before entrepreneur revenue | Higher per-unit value, less volume needed | If builders refuse after free trial |
+| Scrape Playtomic before premium features | Data moat compounds — every day missed is lost data | If Playtomic blocks scraping |
+| Don't build operator dashboard for 6+ months | RICE = 4.5 vs 1,350 for calculator | If 5+ venue owners spontaneously ask |
+| Price at €49-99/mo entry, not €19-29 | Demand-side pricing; low price signals low quality | If conversion <1% at €49, test €29 |
+| Content-first distribution, paid ads later | Zero budget, SEO compounds, builds authority | If organic <500/mo after 3 months |
+| Subdirectory i18n (/de/, /en/) | Keeps domain authority unified | Never — this is permanent |
+| German-first, English catch net | Focus resources, validate in one market | When analytics show >20% English traffic |
+
+---
+
+## 22. Reference Models & Inspirations
+
+| Company | What They Do | Lesson for Padelnomics |
+|---------|-------------|----------------------|
+| **Kpler** | Commodity trading intelligence. Bootstrapped 8 years, €100M+ ARR. Aggregates 500+ sources. | DaaS playbook: start narrow (LNG), build data moat, expand to 40+ commodities. "We sell unfair advantages to traders." |
+| **Finanzfluss** | German financial education. 2.8M monthly visitors via free calculators + topic cluster SEO. | Free tool flywheel: give away calculators, monetize through affiliate/premium. Hub-and-spoke content architecture. |
+| **Sportstaettenrechner** | Generic sports facility calculator + builder directory. 40K+ starters, 492 inquiries/mo. | Proven lead gen model for your exact market. Three-tier builder pricing. But their calculator output is laughably thin — you're 10x better. |
+| **Zillow** | Real estate intelligence. Free Zestimate drives 200M visits/mo, monetizes via agent leads. | Give away the intelligence for free. The tool IS the distribution. Monetize the high-intent moments. |
+| **Podscan.fm** | Podcast analytics. Uses own data to build free SEO tools that drive traffic to paid product. | Marketing flywheel: use your proprietary data to build small free tools that each drive traffic back to the core product. |
+| **Bloomberg** | Financial data terminal. Started with bond data, became the industry standard. | Long-term North Star: become the industry backbone. "If it's not in Bloomberg, it didn't happen." Padelnomics should become "if you're building padel, you start here." |
+| **Padelfinder** | German padel court directory + builder lead gen. | Direct competitor on lead gen. Differentiate through intelligence, not directory. They list builders; you tell people whether to build. |
+
+---
+
+## Pretotyping Tests (Before Building)
+
+For each major unbuilt feature, the cheapest validation test:
+
+| Feature | Test Type | How | Success Signal |
+|---------|-----------|-----|---------------|
+| Business Plan PDF | Fake Door | Show export button after plan → "Launching soon, enter email" | 10%+ click, 30%+ leave email |
+| Location Scorer | Mechanical Turk | Landing page → user enters address → you manually research → email 1-page score in 24hrs | 20+ submissions in first week |
+| Operator Benchmarking | One-Night Stand | Find 5 venue owners, manually create competitive analysis, deliver free, ask "€99/mo for monthly updates?" | 3/5 say yes AND ask for next update |
+| Builder Subscriptions | Infiltrator | Email 10 builders with free 3-month leads, convert to paid after proving value | 3+ builders continue AND pay |
+| Market Reports | Pinocchio | Write Q1 2026 report with available data, email-gate, promote on LinkedIn | 200+ downloads, 5+ shares, 1+ media citation |
+
+---
+
+*This document represents the synthesized strategic plan for Padelnomics as of February 2026. It should be treated as a living document — revisit monthly as real-world data validates or invalidates assumptions. The most important thing remains: ship the free calculator and get builder revenue this month. Everything else follows from that.*