From 4dbff0f38899d2880e8f6e1ff450bb19e2631636 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Deeman Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2026 23:32:47 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] docs(research): add State of Padel Q1 2026 research brief FIP 2024 + 2025 report data: player population, courts, federations, prize pools, broadcast stats, and data source scrapeability assessment. Raw PDF text at /tmp/fip_2024_text.txt and /tmp/fip_2025_text.txt. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 --- research/state-of-padel-q1-2026-research.md | 272 ++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 272 insertions(+) create mode 100644 research/state-of-padel-q1-2026-research.md diff --git a/research/state-of-padel-q1-2026-research.md b/research/state-of-padel-q1-2026-research.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cf9ee90 --- /dev/null +++ b/research/state-of-padel-q1-2026-research.md @@ -0,0 +1,272 @@ +# State of Padel Q1 2026 — Research Brief + +> Compiled 2026-02-25 from FIP World Padel Reports 2024 + 2025 (PDF text extraction), +> padelfip.com press releases, and Premier Padel circuit announcements. +> +> **Raw source files:** +> - FIP 2024 PDF text: `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` (11,049 lines) +> - FIP 2025 PDF text: `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` (28,135 lines) +> - FIP 2024 PDF: `https://www.padelfip.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/WORLD_PADEL_REPORT_2024_FIP-1.pdf` +> - FIP 2025 PDF: `https://www.padelfip.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/FIP-WPR-2025_DIGITAL.pdf` + +--- + +## 1. Global Player Population + +| Metric | End 2023 (FIP 2024 report) | Mid/Oct 2025 (FIP 2025 report) | Growth | +|--------|---------------------------|-------------------------------|--------| +| Amateur players worldwide (est.) | ~25–30 million | **>35 million** | — | +| Federated / licensed players | **600,000** | **850,000** | +42% | +| Players playing ≥1×/week | >50% of amateurs | >50% of amateurs | — | +| Gender split | ~60% M / 40% F | ~60% M / 40% F | — | +| Pro-ranked players | ~4,874 | **11,125** | +128% | +| Junior-ranked players | ~1,209 | **4,219** | +249% | + +**Player distribution by continent (FIP 2025 report):** + +| Continent | Share | +|-----------|-------| +| Europe | 61.3% | +| South America | 19.0% | +| Central & North America | 7.7% | +| Asia | 6.8% | +| Africa | 4.9% | +| Oceania | ~0.3% | + +*Source: FIP World Padel Report 2025, `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt`* + +--- + +## 2. Courts Worldwide + +| Metric | Early 2024 (FIP 2024) | June 2025 (FIP 2025) | Growth | +|--------|----------------------|---------------------|--------| +| **Total courts worldwide** | **60,000** (milestone) | **77,355** | +29% | +| Europe | 42,600 (70%) | 51,000+ (66%) | +20% | +| South America | ~14,850 | ~14,100 (18%) | — | +| Asia | ~3,200 | ~4,633 (6%) | +45% | +| Central & North America | ~2,000 | ~3,976 (5%) | +99% | +| Africa | ~2,300 | ~3,389 (4%) | +47% | +| Oceania | ~50 | ~110 | +120% | +| Court-to-club ratio (global avg) | 3.2 | — | — | + +**3-year context (from FIP 2024 report):** +240% court growth globally since 2021. +Excluding Spain, European countries grew courts 6× in the same period. + +*Source: FIP 2024 report pp. key facts section; FIP 2025 report country-breakdown section. `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` lines ~380–414; `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` court section.* + +--- + +## 3. Top Countries by Court Count + +### 2025 (June 2025 data, FIP 2025 report) + +| Rank | Country | Courts | +|------|---------|--------| +| 1 | Spain | 17,300 | +| 2 | Italy | 10,220 | +| 3 | Sweden | 4,220 | +| 4 | Argentina | 4,220 | +| 5 | France | 4,000 | +| 6 | Netherlands | 3,500+ | +| 7 | Belgium | 2,150 | +| 8 | Mexico | 2,000+ | +| 9 | Chile | ~2,000 | +| 10 | Denmark | ~1,560 | +| 11 | Portugal | 1,560 | +| 12 | Saudi Arabia | 1,127–1,575 | + +### 2024 (early 2024 data, FIP 2024 report) + +| Country | Courts | +|---------|--------| +| Spain | 16,000+ | +| Argentina | ~9,053 | +| Sweden | ~4,200 | +| France | ~2,300 | +| Netherlands | ~2,420 | + +*Source: FIP 2025 top-15 courts chart, `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` ~lines 390–412. FIP 2024 country pages, `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt`.* + +--- + +## 4. Clubs Worldwide + +| Metric | FIP 2024 report | FIP 2025 report | +|--------|----------------|----------------| +| Total clubs worldwide | ~19,800 | **24,627+** | +| FIP-affiliated clubs | 5,820 (+48% vs 2022's 3,923) | 8,612 (managing 30,000+ courts) | +| Countries / nations playing padel | 130 + 12 territories | **150 + 20 territories** | + +*Source: `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` global summary; `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` headline stats.* + +--- + +## 5. FIP Member Federations + +| Metric | FIP 2024 | FIP 2025 | +|--------|---------|---------| +| Total FIP member federations | **71** (30 joined in prior 3 years) | **87** | +| European | 39 | 50 | +| Asian | 15 | — | +| American | 12 | — | +| African | 3 | — | +| Oceanian | 2 | — | + +*Source: `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` line 3573; `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` federation overview.* + +--- + +## 6. Country-Level Licensed (Federated) Players + +### From FIP 2025 report (data as of Oct 2025) + +| Country | Licensed Players | Gender split | Amateur est. | Courts | Clubs | +|---------|-----------------|-------------|-------------|--------|-------| +| Spain | **109,182** | 39,851W + 69,331M | 6,200,000+ | 17,300+ | 4,570+ | +| Italy | **86,301** | 23,257W + 61,837M | 2,200,000 | 10,220 | 3,795 | +| France | **250,000** | via FFT* | 800,000 | 4,000 | 2,917 | +| Sweden | **6,118** | 1,900W + 4,218M | 700,000 | 4,220 | 1,202 | + +*France figure = FFT (Fédération Française de Tennis) licences covering padel. 100,000 are padel-only; 150,000 are multi-racket licences.* + +### From FIP 2024 report (data as of end 2023 / April 2024) + +| Country | Licensed Players | Amateur est. | +|---------|-----------------|-------------| +| Spain | **101,326** | 5,500,000+ | +| France | **113,006** (FFT) | 1,000,000 | +| Argentina | **73,741** | 1,500,000 | +| Paraguay | 15,000 | 500,000 | + +*Source: `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` Spain ~line 25571, Italy ~line 19606, France ~line 17550, Sweden ~line 26084. `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` Argentina ~line 4125, France ~line 4488.* + +--- + +## 7. Professional Circuit — Scale & Growth + +### FIP-Organized Tournament Volume + +| Year | Total FIP tournaments | Countries hosting | Unique players | +|------|-----------------------|-------------------|----------------| +| 2024 (full year) | **182** | — | — | +| H1 2024 | 71 | 21 | 2,419 (65 nationalities) | +| H1 2025 | **132** (+86%) | **38** (+81%) | **3,266** (+35%, 91 nationalities) | + +**H1 2025 breakdown:** 12 Premier Padel + 75 CUPRA FIP Tour + 45 FIP Promises + +### Digital reach (H1 2025) +- 1.85 million unique website users (+19% vs H1 2024) +- 30+ million page views (+33%) +- 680,000 social followers (+23%) + +*Source: padelfip.com press release July 2025, plain HTML.* + +--- + +## 8. Premier Padel Prize Pools + +### Per-tournament prize money by tier + +| Tier | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | +|------|------|------|------| +| Major | €525,000 | €525,000 | Not confirmed | +| P1 | €250,000 | **€300,000** | Not confirmed | +| P2 | — | €150,000 | **€250,000** (+67%) | +| Year-end Finals | — | — | **€600,000 total** | + +**2024 Finals breakdown (Barcelona, Dec 2024):** +Winner per player €52,500 · Finalist €30,000 · 3rd €21,000 · 4th €13,500 · QF €7,688 · Alternate €2,250 + +**2025 update:** Women's P2 raised a further €10,000 (announced March 2025, padelfip.com). + +> **Note on 2024 Major/P1 amounts:** Not confirmed in any accessible source. +> The 2024 P2 increase (€150k → €250k) was confirmed from Genova P2 announcement. +> Major/P1 for 2024 require one more manual lookup on padelfip.com. + +*Source: padelfip.com press releases 2022, 2023, 2024 — plain HTML, fully accessible. +2024 Finals: `padelfip.com/2024/10/countdown-to-the-qatar-airways-premier-padel-finals...`* + +--- + +## 9. Broadcast & Viewership + +### 2022 (most granular year — from FIP press release) + +| Metric | Value | +|--------|-------| +| YouTube views (season) | 22 million | +| Live stream viewers | 17 million | +| Watch time | 6 million hours | +| Household broadcast reach | 150 million+ | +| Territories | 180+ | +| Multi-year broadcast deals | 11 (ESPN, beIN Sports, Canal+, RTVE, etc.) | +| Live attendance | 200,000+ across 8 events | + +### H1 2024 + +| Metric | Value | +|--------|-------| +| Broadcast territories | 242 (6 continents) | +| Live attendance | **350,000+** (14 tournaments, 12 countries) | +| Social media followers | ~2M total; 4M on Instagram | +| Broadcast countries (full year) | 187 | + +> 2024 viewership ratings / unique viewer counts **not published** in any accessible source. +> The 2022 figures remain the most granular available. + +*Source: padelfip.com 2022 year-end release; padelfip.com August 2024 US expansion announcement.* + +--- + +## 10. World Padel Tour (WPT) + +WPT operated prior to the WPT/Premier Padel merger (completed May 2024). +`worldpadeltour.com` is effectively defunct — `ERR_TLS_CERT_ALTNAME_INVALID` on all fetches, domain being wound down. No aggregate 2023 WPT prize pool figure was recoverable from any accessible source. + +The FIP 2024 report notes: from 2019 (birth of Cupra FIP Tour) through April 2024, **355 tournaments** were played across **36 different nations** on the FIP circuit. + +--- + +## 11. What Padelnomics DuckDB Adds + +The FIP data is country-level. The Padelnomics pipeline has city-level granularity: + +```sql +-- Venue counts per country (OSM + Playtomic deduplicated) +SELECT country_code, COUNT(*) as venues +FROM serving.dim_venues +GROUP BY country_code ORDER BY venues DESC; + +-- City-level market scores + venue density +SELECT city_name, country_code, market_score, venue_count, population +FROM serving.city_market_profile +ORDER BY market_score DESC LIMIT 50; +``` + +The delta between FIP's 17,300 courts in Spain and Padelnomics-tracked venues is meaningful for the article — it illustrates the data methodology gap (FIP = self-reported by federations; Padelnomics = independently scraped OSM + Playtomic). + +--- + +## 12. Data Source Assessment + +| Source | Available | Format | Notes | +|--------|-----------|--------|-------| +| FIP 2024 PDF | **Free** | PDF → parseable text | `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` — layout scrambles extraction slightly | +| FIP 2025 PDF | **Free** | PDF → parseable text | `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` — same | +| padelfip.com press releases | **Free** | Plain HTML | Clean URL pattern `/YYYY/MM/slug/`. Best source for prize pools, circuit stats | +| premierpadel.com | Partial | Next.js SPA | Requires headless browser; static fetch returns empty shell | +| Playtomic / PwC Global Padel Report 2025 | **Gated** | HubSpot form → PDF | 45-page report; only teaser stat (70k courts by 2026) visible on landing page | +| Statista padel topic | **Paywalled** | — | | +| Market research firms (Mordor, GVR, etc.) | **Paywalled** | — | Typical quoted figures: ~$1.5–2B market, 15–20% CAGR through 2030 | +| worldpadeltour.com | **Dead** | — | Invalid TLS cert post-merger | + +--- + +## 13. Data Still Needed Before Writing Session + +| Gap | How to fill | +|-----|------------| +| Premier Padel Major/P1 prize pools for 2024 | 1 manual lookup: search padelfip.com for "2024 Premier Padel season announcement" | +| DuckDB pipeline venue counts | Run the 2 SQL queries above | +| FIP 2025 per-country data (all 87 federations) | `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` has the full text — grep by country name |