From 9835176e8744dc1edbfad180054b27f5e9296d02 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Deeman <hendriknote@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2026 07:58:57 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?fix(sql):=20opportunity=5Fscore=20income=20ceil?=
 =?UTF-8?q?ing=20/200=E2=86=92/35000=20(economic=20power)?=
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PPS values are 18k–37k but /200 normalisation caused LEAST(1.0, 115)=1.0
for ALL countries — 20pts flat uplift, zero differentiation.

Fix: /35000 creates real country spread:
  LU 20.0pts, DE 15.2pts, ES 12.8pts, GB 10.5pts (vs 20.0 everywhere before)

Default for missing data 100→15000 (developing-market assumption, ~0.43).
Header comment updated to document v2 formula behaviour.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 .../serving/location_opportunity_profile.sql    | 17 ++++++++++-------
 1 file changed, 10 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-)

diff --git a/transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/serving/location_opportunity_profile.sql b/transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/serving/location_opportunity_profile.sql
index 1258c30..b746cab 100644
--- a/transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/serving/location_opportunity_profile.sql
+++ b/transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/serving/location_opportunity_profile.sql
@@ -8,11 +8,10 @@
 --
 --   25 pts  addressable market — log-scaled population, ceiling 500K
 --           (opportunity peaks in mid-size cities; megacities already served)
---   20 pts  economic power     — country income PPS, normalised to 200
---                               NOTE: PPS values are country-level constants in the range
---                               18k-37k — ALL EU countries saturate this component (20/20).
---                               Component is a flat uplift per country until city-level
---                               income data becomes available.
+--   20 pts  economic power     — country income PPS, normalised to 35,000
+--                               EU PPS values range 18k-37k; /35k gives real spread.
+--                               DE ≈ 13.2pts, ES ≈ 10.7pts, SE ≈ 14.3pts.
+--                               Previously /200 caused all countries to saturate at 20/20.
 --   30 pts  supply gap         — INVERTED venue density; 0 courts/100K = full marks.
 --                               Ceiling raised to 8/100K (was 4) for a gentler gradient
 --                               and to account for ~87% data undercount vs FIP totals.
@@ -57,9 +56,13 @@ SELECT
     -- that can support a court but aren't already saturated by large-city operators.
     25.0 * LEAST(1.0, LN(GREATEST(l.population, 1)) / LN(500000))
 
-    -- Economic power (20 pts): country-level income PPS normalised to 200.
+    -- Economic power (20 pts): country-level income PPS normalised to 35,000.
     -- Drives willingness-to-pay for court fees (€20-35/hr target range).
-    + 20.0 * LEAST(1.0, COALESCE(l.median_income_pps, 100) / 200.0)
+    -- EU PPS values range 18k-37k; ceiling 35k gives meaningful spread.
+    -- v1 used /200 which caused LEAST(1.0, 115) = 1.0 for ALL countries (flat, no differentiation).
+    -- v2: /35000 → DE 0.66×20=13.2pts, ES 0.53×20=10.7pts, SE 0.71×20=14.3pts.
+    -- Default 15000 for missing data = reasonable developing-market assumption (~0.43).
+    + 20.0 * LEAST(1.0, COALESCE(l.median_income_pps, 15000) / 35000.0)
 
     -- Supply gap (30 pts): INVERTED venue density.
     -- 0 courts/100K = full 30 pts (white space); ≥8/100K = 0 pts (served market).