From b149424e124592b854196e79a4ff53c6a9f818c6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Deeman Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2026 11:50:04 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] docs: add research notes and scratch files Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 --- research/README.md | 42 +++ research/additional-supply-side-idea.md | 108 ++++++++ research/padel-hall-economics.md | 236 ++++++++++++++++ scratch.md | 119 ++++++++ scratch/padel-hall-guide.md | 343 ++++++++++++++++++++++++ 5 files changed, 848 insertions(+) create mode 100644 research/README.md create mode 100644 research/additional-supply-side-idea.md create mode 100644 research/padel-hall-economics.md create mode 100644 scratch.md create mode 100644 scratch/padel-hall-guide.md diff --git a/research/README.md b/research/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..33942a8 --- /dev/null +++ b/research/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +# Research Index + +All research documents in this directory. Most recent / most relevant listed first. + +| File | Topic | Date | Status | +|---|---|---|---| +| `padel-hall-economics.md` | Court construction costs, operator P&L, supplier margins, buyer segmentation | Feb 2026 | Current | +| `competitor_pricing.md` | Competitor directory, pricing models, revenue archetypes (20+ platforms) | Feb 2026 | Current | +| `market-research-padel-costs-2026.md` | Per-city court hire rates, rent, electricity, staff costs (DE/UK/US) | Feb 2026 | Current | +| `state-of-padel-q1-2026/` | FIP reports 2024+2025, Playtomic Global Padel Report 2025 | Q1 2026 | Current | +| `kfw/` | KfW loan documents and business plan templates | Feb 2026 | Current | +| `additional-supply-side-idea.md` | Supplier-side product idea notes | Feb 2026 | Draft | +| `padelnomics-master-strategy.md` | Original strategy doc | 2025 | **Superseded** — use MARKETING.md + PROJECT.md | +| `PLAN.md` | Original roadmap | 2025 | **Superseded** | +| `padel-daas-vision-plan.md` | Data-as-a-service vision | 2025 | **Superseded** | +| `padel_daas_vision.md` | DaaS vision (older) | 2025 | **Superseded** | +| `PadelDirectory.md` | Directory concept | 2025 | **Superseded** | +| `padelnomics-strategy-stack.md` | Strategy stack | 2025 | **Superseded** | +| `padelnomics_erp_for_padel_entrepreneurs_customer_journey.md` | Customer journey | 2025 | **Superseded** | +| `padelnomics-jtbd-analysis.md` | JTBD analysis | 2025 | Background context only | +| `padelnomics_lead_platform_discussion_summary.md` | Lead platform discussion | 2025 | Background context only | +| `product_ideas.md` | Product ideas | 2025 | Background context only | +| `sportstaettenrechner_quotes_2022.md` | Sportstaettenrechner 2022 lead volume data | 2022 | Historical data | + +## Key facts (quick reference) + +**Construction costs:** +- 1 outdoor court (turnkey): €33,000–€80,000 +- 4 outdoor courts (commercial): €200,000–€350,000 +- 4-court indoor hall: €700,000–€1,200,000 +- 6-court indoor hall: €1,000,000–€1,700,000 + +**Operator revenue:** +- Germany: €4,000/court/month GMV (Playtomic 2025) +- UK: €9,700/court/month GMV +- 4-court outdoor: ~€224,000/year gross (padel-court.de) +- EBITDA mature indoor club: 50–57% + +**Market growth:** +- 7,187 new courts built globally in 2024 +- Germany: 507 courts (2024) → 827 (2025), +63% YoY +- European construction market: ~€194M/year (2024) diff --git a/research/additional-supply-side-idea.md b/research/additional-supply-side-idea.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..59f42c3 --- /dev/null +++ b/research/additional-supply-side-idea.md @@ -0,0 +1,108 @@ +# Supply-Side Lead Gen: Flächen für Padel-Gründer vermitteln + +*padelnomics.io — neue Revenue-Linie* + +--- + +## Die Idee in einem Satz + +Padelnomics wird zur **Zillow für Padel-Gewerbeimmobilien**: Wir vermitteln nicht nur Padel-Gründer an Court-Lieferanten (downstream), sondern auch an Hallenbetreiber, Gewerbemakler und Wirtschaftsförderungen, die Flächen anbieten (upstream). Zwei Seiten, ein Funnel, derselbe Entrepreneur als Nutzer. + +--- + +## Warum das funktioniert + +**Das Problem existiert.** Jeder Padel-Gründer braucht *zuerst* eine Halle, bevor er Courts bestellt. Aktuell ist die Suche komplett manuell: ImmoScout durchforsten, Makler anrufen, Wirtschaftsförderungen einzeln anschreiben. Wir haben den Schmerz beim Göttingen/Oldenburg-Scan selbst erlebt. + +**Wir haben die Demand-Seite bereits.** Der Padel Court Planner fängt Gründer mit konkreten Projektdaten ab: Region, Budget, Courtanzahl, Timeline. Das sind hochqualifizierte Leads für jeden, der Gewerbeflächen vermieten will — deutlich besser als ein random ImmoScout-Inserat. + +**Datenmoat durch Kuration.** ImmoScout taggt keine "8m+ Deckenhöhe, 800+ qm, geeignet für Padel." Wir schon. Jeder Market Scan baut eine proprietäre Datenbank padel-geeigneter Flächen auf, die niemand sonst hat. + +**Zillow-Analogie:** Zillow verdient, indem Makler für Buyer-Leads zahlen. Unsere Version: Hallenbetreiber / Makler / Wirtschaftsförderungen zahlen für qualifizierte Mieter-Leads — Padel-Gründer mit Budget, Specs und Timeline. + +--- + +## Chicken-and-Egg lösen + +Das klassische Problem zweiseitiger Marktplätze umgehen wir, weil: + +1. **Demand-Seite existiert organisch** — Calculator-Traffic liefert Gründer-Leads ohne Akquise +2. **Supply-Seite starten wir kuratiert** — eigene Market Scans (wie Göttingen/Oldenburg) als initialer Bestand, bevor Anbieter selbst listen +3. **Wirtschaftsförderungen als Hebel** — quasi-öffentliche Stellen, die *wollen*, dass Unternehmer in ihre Stadt kommen; niedrige Hürde für Kooperation + +--- + +## Umsetzung: Kein neues Produkt, sondern Funnel-Erweiterung + +Nicht als separates Produkt bauen. Stattdessen: + +1. **"Standort-Finder" im bestehenden Funnel** — nach dem Calculator ("Ich will in Niedersachsen bauen") kuratierte Flächen zeigen + Kontaktvermittlung anbieten +2. **Zweite Lead-Kategorie im Marketplace** — neben Court-Supplier-Leads jetzt auch Space-Provider-Leads, gleicher Entrepreneur-Traffic +3. **Langfristig: Anbieter listen selbst** — Gewerbemakler und Wirtschaftsförderungen pflegen Flächen direkt auf padelnomics, wir matchen automatisch + +--- + +## Revenue-Modell + +| Stream | Mechanik | Preis-Range | +|---|---|---| +| Lead-Vermittlung an Vermieter | Pro qualifiziertem Mieter-Lead | €50–200/Lead | +| Featured Listings (Flächen) | Sichtbarkeits-Upgrades à la RemoteOK | €29–199/mo | +| Wirtschaftsförderung-Partnerschaften | Flatrate für Lead-Weiterleitung in ihre Region | €500–1.500/Jahr | +| Site Selection Reports | Deep-Dive für eine spezifische Stadt (bereits geplant als High-Ticket) | €499–999 | + +--- + +## Outreach-Strategie: Personalisierte Emails via Resend API + +### Warum kein Broadcast / Audiences + +- **GDPR + UWG §7:** Unaufgeforderte Werbe-Emails an deutsche B2B-Kontakte ohne Einwilligung = rechtlich riskant. Wirtschaftsförderungen sind quasi-öffentlich — schlechter erster Eindruck. +- **Zu kleine Liste für Broadcast:** ~100–200 Targets (Wirtschaftsförderungen, Makler, Hallenbetreiber in 20–30 Städten). Bei der Größe schlägt Personalisierung jede Massenmail. +- **Homogene Mails = Spam-Feeling:** "Wir vermitteln Padel-Gründer" klingt generisch. "Göttingen hat 0 Indoor-Courts bei 131.000 Einwohnern" sitzt. + +### Stattdessen: API-Sends mit Per-Recipient-Personalisierung + +**Setup:** +1. Ziel-Spreadsheet bauen (Airtable oder Google Sheets): + - Stadt, Unternehmen, Kontakt-Email, Ansprechpartner (wenn bekannt) + - Anzahl Indoor-Padel-Courts in der Stadt (0 / wenige / viele) + - Einwohnerzahl + - Spezifischer Hook ("Move On Göttingen hat Bürger-Anfragen für Padel") + - Quelle (ImmoScout, Website, Makler-Verzeichnis) + +2. Email-Template mit Merge-Fields: + - `{{stadt}}`, `{{court_count}}`, `{{einwohner}}`, `{{hook}}` + +3. Senden via Resend API (Node-Script oder Python): + - Jede Email wirkt 1:1 persönlich + - Tracking: Opens, Replies + - Reply-to: persönliche padelnomics-Adresse + +**Beispiel-Personalisierung:** + +| Stadt | Hook | +|---|---| +| Göttingen | "0 Indoor-Courts, 131K Einwohner, Uni-Stadt, Move-On-Initiative fordert Padel" | +| Oldenburg | "Nur 10 Courts für 175K Einwohner, ZwillisPadel sucht aktiv neue Standorte" | +| Braunschweig | "Zweitgrößte Stadt Niedersachsens, X Courts für 250K Einwohner" | + +### Wann Resend Audiences DOCH sinnvoll wird + +Sobald Kontakte **opt-in** sind (sie antworten, zeigen Interesse, tragen sich ein): +→ Audience anlegen und regelmäßig Updates senden: +- "3 neue Padel-Gründer suchen Flächen in Niedersachsen diesen Monat" +- "Neuer Marktbericht: Padel-Nachfrage in Ihrer Region" +- Quartals-Newsletter mit Marktdaten + +Das ist dann ein legitimer Newsletter an engagierte Kontakte — kein Cold Outreach. + +--- + +## Nächste Schritte + +1. **Lokhalle/GWG Göttingen** als ersten manuellen Test senden (Email ist drafted) +2. **Target-Liste für 10 Städte** bauen (Göttingen, Oldenburg, Braunschweig, Hannover, Osnabrück, ...) +3. **Resend API-Script** schreiben (Personalisierung + Open-Tracking) +4. **Erste 20 Emails** senden, Response-Rate messen +5. **Bei Traction:** "Standort-Finder"-Feature auf padelnomics.io scopen diff --git a/research/padel-hall-economics.md b/research/padel-hall-economics.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b42d62a --- /dev/null +++ b/research/padel-hall-economics.md @@ -0,0 +1,236 @@ +# Padel Hall Economics — Construction Costs & Supplier Revenue + +**Compiled: February 2026** +**Purpose:** Ground-truth numbers for pricing decisions, supplier value proposition, and lead marketplace calibration. + +--- + +## 1. Court Construction Costs — Component Breakdown + +Per double court (10m × 20m playing surface), supply + installation, outdoor: + +| Component | Range (EUR) | +|---|---| +| Steel frame / structure | €8,000–€12,000 | +| Panoramic glass walls | €9,500–€16,000 | +| Artificial turf (200 sqm) | €4,500–€8,000 | +| LED sports lighting | €4,000–€7,000 | +| Foundation & site prep | €5,000–€10,000 | +| Fencing / mesh panels | €2,000–€4,000 | +| **Total outdoor double court** | **€33,000–€57,000** | + +Sources: `market-research-padel-costs-2026.md` §12 (cross-checked against Fortune Padel, MejorSet, WePadel 2025, LTA construction guidance) + +**Turnkey quotes from real operators:** +- padel-court.de (German broker): **€27,000–€32,000/court** indoor, **€28,000–€34,000/court** outdoor (supply + installation, ex-foundation) +- padelplatz-kosten.de calculator output: **€45,000–€110,000+** per court (includes all configurations from basic to full panoramic with roofing) +- padel-konzept.de / Padel Solution NL: **€44,000–€93,000** outdoor, **€53,000–€100,000** indoor (recycled range across all city pages — likely Padel Solution list prices) +- Reform Sports (Turkey): **$39,800–$45,300** per court (≈ €37,800–€43,000) — supply only, no installation + +**Supply-only ex-works (China):** ~€4,000 structure per court. European-assembled supply-only: ~€10,000. + +--- + +## 2. Total Facility CAPEX by Project Type + +| Facility type | Courts | EUR range | Notes | +|---|---|---|---| +| Single outdoor court | 1 | €33,000–€80,000 | Lower = no foundation; upper = full site prep + lighting | +| Small outdoor club | 2–3 | €80,000–€180,000 | Minimum viable commercial project | +| Mid outdoor club | 4 | €200,000–€350,000 | Typical sports club / commercial entry | +| Small indoor hall | 4 | €700,000–€1,200,000 | Courts + steel hall + HVAC + fit-out | +| Mid indoor hall | 6 | €1,000,000–€1,700,000 | Realistic midpoint ~€1.2–1.5M | +| Large indoor center | 8–12 | €1,500,000–€3,000,000+ | Premium brands (Padel Haus, Epic Padel) | + +**6-court indoor benchmark** (from `scratch/padel-hall-guide.md`): +- Building shell: €400,000–€800,000 +- Courts (6 × ~€30,000): €180,000–€300,000 +- HVAC: €50,000–€120,000 +- Lighting: €30,000–€60,000 +- Fit-out (reception, bar, WC): €80,000–€150,000 +- Permits / legal / architect: €40,000–€80,000 +- **Total: €780,000–€1,510,000** (realistic: €1.0–1.4M) + +**padel-court.de real-world 4-court scenarios (2021, still widely cited):** +- Sports club (Verein), 4 outdoor courts: €258,000 gross → **€167,700 net** after 35% federation grant +- Commercial operator, 4 outdoor courts: **€258,000 total** (no grant) + +Source: https://padel-court.de/wie-viel-kann-man-mit-einem-padelcourt-verdienen/ + +--- + +## 3. Buyer Segmentation + +**Primary buyer types** (from padel-court.de FAQ, Padelcreations buyer personas, Playtomic 2025): + +| Buyer type | Typical project | CapEx range | Grant eligibility | +|---|---|---|---| +| Existing tennis / sports club | 2–4 courts outdoor | €80,000–€260,000 | Yes (Landessportbund, KfW 150) | +| Commercial entrepreneur / investor | 4–6 courts | €200,000–€700,000 | Limited | +| Hotel / resort / hospitality | 2–4 courts | €100,000–€400,000 | No | +| Corporate (team-building venue) | 1–2 courts | €50,000–€150,000 | No | +| Franchise / chain operator | 6–16 courts indoor | €1M–€5M+ | No | +| Municipality / public facility | 2–4 courts | €100,000–€350,000 | Yes (various public sports funds) | + +**Confirmed real projects (Germany, from padel-court.de European stats 2025):** +- Hanse Padel Hamburg: 16 courts +- Padel FC Berlin: 9 courts +- Most new German projects: 4–8 courts + +**Smallest viable project:** 2 courts (padel-court.de explicitly says "at least two courts is economically more sensible than one") + +**Single-court buyers** do exist (corporate installs, hotel add-ons, indoor sports hall add-ons) but are not the primary addressable market for a B2B lead marketplace targeting full-service suppliers. + +### Answer to the €200K+ question + +**Not universal, but accurate for the core addressable market:** + +- Single court (1 court, basic outdoor): €33,000–€80,000 → **below €100K threshold** +- 2-court outdoor club: €80,000–€180,000 → **€100K–€200K range** +- 4-court outdoor commercial: **€200,000–€350,000** ✓ over €200K +- Any indoor project: **€700,000–€3,000,000+** ✓ well over €200K + +The majority of projects that full-service court manufacturers and turnkey builders target are 4+ court installations — placing them firmly in the €200K–€1M+ range. However, a meaningful segment (sports clubs with grants, single-court hospitality adds) operates in the €50K–€200K range. + +**Better framing:** "Most construction projects in our lead feed represent €200K–€2M+ investments." Single-court buyers exist but are low-value for suppliers and can be excluded with a "minimum project size" filter. + +--- + +## 4. Operator Revenue & Profitability + +**padel-court.de baseline model (4 outdoor courts, commercial, Germany 2021):** +- Rate: €29/hr/court +- Hours: 09:00–22:00 (13 hrs/day), 9 months/year (outdoor) +- Occupancy: 55% +- **Gross revenue per court/year: ~€56,000** +- **4-court annual gross: ~€224,000** +- 4-court indoor (12 months): **~€303,000/year gross** + +Source: https://padel-court.de/wie-viel-kann-man-mit-einem-padelcourt-verdienen/ + +**Playtomic real-world GMV per court per month (2025):** + +| Country | GMV/court/month | YoY growth | +|---|---|---| +| UK | €9,700 | +74% | +| Germany | €4,000 | +48% | +| Spain | ~€3,500 | +16% | +| Italy | ~€3,200 | +11% | +| Benelux | ~€3,100 | +12% | + +UK at €9,700/court/month = **€116,400/court/year** gross. Germany at €4,000/month = **€48,000/court/year** gross. This aligns with the padel-court.de model. + +**6-court indoor facility P&L model** (from `scratch/padel-hall-guide.md`): + +| Metric | Year 1 (45% util.) | Year 2 (60%) | Year 3 (70%) | +|---|---|---|---| +| Total revenue | €800,000 | €1,107,000 | €1,325,000 | +| Total OPEX | €490,000 | €530,000 | €566,000 | +| **EBITDA** | **€310,000** | **€577,000** | **€759,000** | +| EBITDA margin | 39% | 52% | 57% | +| Debt service (€800K loan, 5%, 10yr) | ~€102,000 | ~€102,000 | ~€102,000 | +| Free cash flow after debt | ~€208,000 | ~€475,000 | ~€657,000 | + +**Key benchmarks:** +- Breakeven utilisation: 35–40% +- Payback period: 3–5 years (typical for well-run clubs) +- Revenue per court at maturity: €150,000+/year +- Playtomic reports first-year occupancy claims: "40–45%, break-even <24 months for 4-court club" (from Padelcreations) +- Player return rate after first session: 92% (Playtomic 2025) + +--- + +## 5. Supplier / Manufacturer Economics + +**No public financials exist** for padel court manufacturers (Artec, Mundo Padel, Global Padel, WePadel, Reform Sports, Padel Solution NL). All are private companies. + +**What can be inferred:** + +| Cost level | EUR/court | Notes | +|---|---|---| +| Ex-works China (structure only) | ~€4,000 | Steel frame + glass, no installation | +| European supply-only | ~€10,000–€14,000 | Assembled in Europe, delivered ex-works | +| European turnkey (supply + install) | €27,000–€45,000 | Padel-court.de, WePadel ranges | +| Full project mgmt / consulting | €45,000–€100,000 | Padel Solution NL, padel-konzept.de | + +**Implied gross margin (rough):** +- European manufacturer at €14,000 supply cost, selling for €30,000 installed: ~53% gross margin on product +- Construction services margin: typically 15–30% in EU construction industry +- Blended turnkey margin: likely 35–50% on full project revenue (no direct data found) + +**Typical contract values for lead marketplace suppliers:** + +| Supplier type | Typical contract | Deal frequency | +|---|---|---| +| Court manufacturer (supply only) | €40,000–€200,000 (2–8 courts) | Multiple/year | +| Turnkey contractor (courts + foundation) | €100,000–€500,000 (4–8 courts) | 5–15/year | +| Indoor hall builder (turnkey) | €500,000–€2,000,000 | 2–8/year | +| Turf / lighting specialist | €10,000–€80,000 | 10–30/year | +| Construction consultant | €15,000–€50,000 consulting fee | Multiple/year | + +A single closed deal for a turnkey contractor doing 4 outdoor courts = €200,000–€350,000 contract value. At 15% net margin = **€30,000–€52,000 profit per project**. + +--- + +## 6. Market Growth (Construction Volume) + +**FIP / Playtomic 2025:** +- Global courts end-2024: **50,017** +- New courts built in 2024: **7,187** +- Forecast end-2025: **59,524** (implies ~9,500 new courts in 2025) +- Forecast end-2026: **70,274** +- New clubs opened in 2024: **3,282** (+26% YoY) + +**Germany specifically (padel-court.de European stats, July 2025):** +- Courts 2024: 507 → 2025: 827 (+63% growth) +- DACH total new courts 2024: ~365 + +**Implied European construction market size (rough):** +- 7,187 new courts × Europe share (~60%) × €45,000/court average = **~€194M European court construction revenue in 2024** +- Growing at ~20%/year → **~€233M in 2025** + +--- + +## 7. Operating Cost Benchmarks (Germany, 6-court facility) + +| Cost item | Monthly | Annual | +|---|---|---| +| Electricity (lighting + HVAC) | €2,500–€4,500 | €30,000–€54,000 | +| Staff (2–3 FTE + manager) | €9,900–€14,200 | €119,000–€170,000 | +| Rent (varies by city) | €8,000–€15,000 | €96,000–€180,000 | +| Insurance | €1,000–€2,000 | €12,000–€24,000 | +| Maintenance | €1,500–€2,500 | €18,000–€30,000 | +| Booking system / IT | €700–€1,000 | €8,400–€12,000 | +| Marketing | €2,000–€4,000 | €24,000–€48,000 | + +Source: `market-research-padel-costs-2026.md` §6 + +**One-time permits & compliance (Germany):** €15,000–€37,500 (typically 0.5–1% of construction value) + +--- + +## 8. Sources + +| # | Source | Type | Confidence | +|---|---|---|---| +| [1] | padel-court.de/wie-viel-kann-man-mit-einem-padelcourt-verdienen/ | Operator blog, real project data | High | +| [2] | padel-court.de/padel-courts-in-europa-2025-dynamik-dichte-differenzierung/ | Market stats, July 2025 | High | +| [3] | Playtomic Global Padel Report 2025 (joint with PwC/Strategy&) | Institutional report | High | +| [4] | FIP World Padel Report 2024 & 2025 | Federation data | High | +| [5] | `research/market-research-padel-costs-2026.md` | Internal synthesis, multi-source | High | +| [6] | `scratch/padel-hall-guide.md` | Internal financial model | Medium | +| [7] | padelplatz-kosten.de calculator (Padel Solution / Ramon Tissler) | Manufacturer pricing tool | Medium | +| [8] | padel-konzept.de city pages | Padel Solution NL list prices | Medium (single-supplier bias) | +| [9] | WePadel.com blog 2025 | Turkish manufacturer, EN | Medium | +| [10] | Reform Sports blog 2025 | Turkish manufacturer, EN | Medium | +| [11] | `research/competitor_pricing.md` | Internal competitive analysis | High | +| [12] | Padelcreations.com buyer personas + profit calculator | Spanish manufacturer marketing | Medium (optimistic bias) | +| [13] | `research/sportstaettenrechner_quotes_2022.md` | Real lead volume data | High | +| [14] | LTA UK padel construction guidance | Federation, UK-specific | High | + +**Not found / paywalled:** +- Individual manufacturer financials (all private companies) +- Padel Solution NL financials +- Published gross margin data for court manufacturers +- Mordor Intelligence / Grand View / Technavio market reports (all paywalled) +- Companies House / KvK filings (would need company registration numbers) diff --git a/scratch.md b/scratch.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..82f0648 --- /dev/null +++ b/scratch.md @@ -0,0 +1,119 @@ +❯ /seo whould it be bad to launch with a bigger +number of programmatic seo articles? + +● Launching with a Large pSEO Article Count — Risk + Analysis + + Short answer: yes, it can hurt, especially on a new + domain. Here's why and how to mitigate it. + + --- + The core risk: Google's Helpful Content System + (HCS) + + Google's HCS evaluates sites holistically, not page + by page. If a large portion of your site looks + templated, thin, or machine-generated, the entire + domain can get a HCS classifier applied — + suppressing all your pages in rankings, not just + the bad ones. + + This is especially dangerous at launch because you + have zero authority or trust signals to buffer the + risk. + + --- + Specific risks at scale + + Risk: Thin content + What happens: Pages with the same template, minimal + + unique data, and short text → Google treats as + doorway pages + ──────────────────────────────────────── + Risk: Crawl budget waste + What happens: New domains get limited crawl budget. + + 500 thin pages = Google never properly indexes + your 10 important pages + ──────────────────────────────────────── + Risk: Indexing cliff + What happens: Google may crawl but refuse to index + many pages, then slow-crawl everything — your + best + pages stay invisible for months + ──────────────────────────────────────── + Risk: Duplicate content signals + What happens: Highly similar templates across + cities + trigger near-duplicate filters + ──────────────────────────────────────── + Risk: Sudden large crawl spike + What happens: Looks unnatural on a new domain; can + trigger quality review + + --- + What makes pSEO safe at scale + + Your content avoids penalty if each page has + genuine differentiation: + + - Unique data per page (your DuckDB serving tables + with real city-level stats — this is good) + - Enough text variation that pages don't read as + identical + - Real user intent fulfilled (someone searching + "padel court cost Hamburg" gets Hamburg-specific + numbers, not generic copy) + - Thin pages are not indexed (use noindex on + low-data cities) + + --- + Recommended launch approach + + Your staggered publishing (articles_per_day) is + already correct. Here's how to calibrate it: + + 1. Phase 1 — 20–50 pages: Your best cities (highest + population, highest search volume). Monitor Google + Search Console: are they getting indexed within + 2–4 weeks? + 2. Phase 2 — expand once indexing is healthy: If + GSC shows 80%+ of Phase 1 pages indexed and you're + seeing impressions, scale to next tier. + 3. Never index a page without real data: If a + city's DuckDB row has null/empty fields that would + produce generic text, noindex it until data exists. + 4. Target ≤30% of your site being pSEO at launch: + Mix in some hand-crafted cornerstone content (e.g. + "How to build a padel court in Germany") to signal + editorial intent. + + --- + The counter-argument (when more is fine) + + If your pages have very strong data differentiation + per city and your domain already has some + authority (backlinks, existing traffic), launching + with 200–500 pages is not unusual for + location-based pSEO. The risk scales with: + + - How similar the pages look to each other + - How new/authoritative the domain is + - Whether the data is genuinely unique vs. filler + + --- + Bottom line for Padelnomics + + Given it's a new domain with no existing authority, + I'd launch with: + - 50–100 highest-quality cities first (the ones + with real DuckDB data, not nulls) + - Ramp to full scale over 2–3 months, using + articles_per_day as your throttle + - Add noindex to any city page where data would + produce near-identical content to another city + + The indexing rate in GSC will tell you clearly + whether Google likes what it sees before you commit + thousands of pages. diff --git a/scratch/padel-hall-guide.md b/scratch/padel-hall-guide.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e9ffb4e --- /dev/null +++ b/scratch/padel-hall-guide.md @@ -0,0 +1,343 @@ +# Building a Padel Hall — Complete Guide + +## Table of Contents + +1. [Key Questions to Answer](#key-questions-to-answer) +2. [Steps — In Detail](#steps--in-detail) +3. [Plans You Need to Create](#plans-you-need-to-create) +4. [Expert Financial Calculation](#expert-financial-calculation) +5. [How to Decide Where to Build](#how-to-decide-where-to-build) +6. [Corporate Finance & Valuation Perspective](#corporate-finance--valuation-perspective) +7. [Risk Register](#risk-register) + +--- + +## Key Questions to Answer + +### Market & Demand + +- How many padel players are in your target area? Is the sport growing locally or are you betting on future adoption? +- What's the competitive landscape — how many existing courts within a 20–30 minute drive radius? Are they full? What are their peak/off-peak utilization rates? +- What's the demographic profile of your catchment area (income, age, sports participation)? +- Is there unmet demand (waitlists at existing facilities, people driving far to play)? + +### Site & Location + +- Do you want to build new (greenfield), convert an existing building (warehouse, industrial hall), or add to an existing sports complex? +- What zoning and building regulations apply? Is a padel hall classified as sports, leisure, commercial? +- What's the required ceiling height? (Minimum ~8–10m for indoor padel, ideally 10m+) +- What parking capacity do you need? + +### Product & Scope + +- How many courts? (Typically 4–8 is the sweet spot for a standalone hall; fewer than 4 struggles with profitability, more than 8 requires very strong demand) +- Indoor only, outdoor, or hybrid with a retractable/seasonal structure? +- What ancillary offerings: pro shop, café/bar/lounge, fitness area, changing rooms, padel school/academy? +- What quality level are you targeting — premium/club feel or budget/volume play? + +### Financial + +- What's your total budget, and what's the split between equity and debt? +- What rental or land purchase cost can you sustain? +- What are realistic court booking prices in your market? +- What utilization rate is realistic in year 1, 2, 3? +- What's the breakeven point? + +### Legal & Organizational + +- What legal entity will you use? +- Do you need partners (operational, financial, franchise)? +- What permits, licenses, and insurance do you need? +- Do you need a liquor license (if serving alcohol in lounge)? + +--- + +## Steps — In Detail + +### Phase 1: Feasibility & Concept (Month 1–3) + +1. **Market research**: Survey local players, visit competing facilities, analyze demographics within a 15–20 minute drive radius. Talk to padel coaches and club organizers. +2. **Concept development**: Define your number of courts, target audience, service level, and ancillary revenue streams. +3. **Location scouting**: Identify 3–5 candidate sites. Evaluate each on accessibility, visibility, size, ceiling height (if conversion), zoning, and cost. +4. **Preliminary financial model**: Build a rough P&L and investment budget to test whether the concept is viable at all. +5. **Go/no-go decision**: Based on the above, decide whether to proceed. + +### Phase 2: Planning & Design (Month 3–6) + +6. **Secure the site**: Sign a letter of intent or option agreement for purchase or lease. +7. **Hire an architect** experienced in sports facilities. They'll produce floor plans, elevations, structural assessments (for conversions), and MEP (mechanical, electrical, plumbing) layouts. +8. **Padel court supplier selection**: Get quotes from manufacturers (e.g., Mondo, Padelcreations, MejorSet). Courts come as prefabricated modules — coordinate dimensions, drainage, lighting, and glass specifications with your architect. +9. **Detailed financial model**: Now that you have real cost quotes, refine your investment budget and operating projections. +10. **Secure financing**: Approach banks with your business plan and financial model. Typical leverage: 50–70% debt, 30–50% equity. +11. **Obtain permits**: Submit building permit applications, environmental assessments if required, and any change-of-use applications. + +### Phase 3: Construction / Conversion (Month 6–12) + +12. **Tender and contract construction**: Either a general contractor or construction management approach. Key trades: structural/civil, flooring, HVAC (critical for indoor comfort), electrical (LED court lighting to specific lux standards), plumbing. +13. **Install padel courts**: Usually done after the building shell is complete. Courts take 2–4 weeks to install per batch. +14. **Fit-out ancillary areas**: Reception, changing rooms, lounge/bar, pro shop. +15. **IT & booking system**: Install a court booking system (e.g., Playtomic, Matchi, or custom), POS, access control. +16. **Inspections and certifications**: Fire safety, building code compliance, accessibility. + +### Phase 4: Pre-Opening (Month 10–13) + +17. **Hire staff**: Manager, reception, coaches, cleaning, potentially F&B staff. +18. **Marketing launch**: Social media, local partnerships (sports clubs, corporate wellness), opening event, introductory pricing. +19. **Soft opening**: Invite local players, influencers, press for a trial period. +20. **Grand opening**. + +### Phase 5: Operations & Optimization (Ongoing) + +21. **Monitor utilization** by court, time slot, and day. Adjust pricing dynamically. +22. **Build community**: Leagues, tournaments, social events, corporate bookings. +23. **Upsell**: Coaching, equipment, food/beverage, memberships. +24. **Review financials** quarterly against your model. Adjust. + +--- + +## Plans You Need to Create + +- **Business Plan** — the master document covering market analysis, concept, operations plan, management team, and financials. This is what banks and investors want to see. +- **Architectural Plans** — floor plans, cross-sections, elevations, structural drawings, MEP plans. Required for permits and construction. +- **Financial Plan** — the core of your business plan. Includes investment budget, funding plan, P&L forecast (3–5 years), cash flow forecast, and sensitivity analysis. +- **Marketing Plan** — pre-launch, launch, and ongoing. Channel strategy, pricing strategy, partnership plan. +- **Operational Plan** — staffing plan, booking and pricing model, maintenance schedule, supplier contracts. +- **Legal/Permit Plan** — timeline of all required permits, licenses, insurance policies, and legal entity formation steps. + +--- + +## Expert Financial Calculation + +*Based on a 6-court indoor facility as a reference case.* + +### Investment Budget (CAPEX) + +| Item | Estimate | +|---|---| +| Building lease deposit or land | €50,000–€200,000 | +| Construction / conversion | €400,000–€800,000 | +| 6 padel courts (installed) | €180,000–€300,000 (€30k–€50k per court) | +| Lighting (LED, 500 lux per court) | €30,000–€60,000 | +| HVAC system | €50,000–€120,000 | +| Changing rooms, reception, lounge fit-out | €80,000–€150,000 | +| IT, booking system, access control | €15,000–€30,000 | +| Furniture, equipment, pro shop inventory | €20,000–€40,000 | +| Architect, permits, legal, consulting | €40,000–€80,000 | +| Marketing pre-launch | €15,000–€30,000 | +| Working capital reserve | €50,000–€100,000 | +| **Total** | **€930,000–€1,910,000** | + +Realistic midpoint for a solid 6-court hall: **~€1.2–1.5M**. + +### Revenue Model + +Core driver: **court utilization × price per hour**. + +- 6 courts × 15 bookable hours/day × 365 days = **32,850 court-hours/year** (theoretical max) +- Realistic utilization: Year 1 ~45%, Year 2 ~60%, Year 3 ~70% +- Average price per court-hour: €40–€60 (varies by market, peak vs. off-peak) +- Blended average: ~€45/hour + +| Revenue Stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | +|---|---|---|---| +| Court rental (45%/60%/70% util.) | €665k | €887k | €1,035k | +| Coaching & academy | €60k | €90k | €120k | +| F&B / bar | €40k | €65k | €80k | +| Pro shop / equipment | €15k | €25k | €30k | +| Events & corporate | €20k | €40k | €60k | +| **Total Revenue** | **€800k** | **€1,107k** | **€1,325k** | + +### Operating Costs (OPEX) + +| Cost Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | +|---|---|---|---| +| Rent / lease | €120k | €123k | €127k | +| Staff (5–8 FTE) | €200k | €220k | €235k | +| Energy (lighting, HVAC) | €45k | €50k | €55k | +| Maintenance & repairs | €20k | €25k | €30k | +| Marketing | €40k | €30k | €25k | +| Insurance | €12k | €12k | €13k | +| Booking system / IT | €8k | €8k | €9k | +| COGS (F&B, shop) | €25k | €40k | €48k | +| Admin, accounting, legal | €20k | €22k | €24k | +| **Total OPEX** | **€490k** | **€530k** | **€566k** | + +### Profitability + +| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | +|---|---|---|---| +| **EBITDA** | €310k | €577k | €759k | +| EBITDA margin | 39% | 52% | 57% | +| Debt service (assuming €800k loan, 5%, 10yr) | ~€102k | ~€102k | ~€102k | +| **Free cash flow after debt** | ~€208k | ~€475k | ~€657k | + +### Key Metrics to Track + +- **Payback period**: Typically 3–5 years for a well-run padel hall +- **ROI on equity**: If you put in €500k equity and generate €300k+ annual free cash flow by year 3, that's a 60%+ cash-on-cash return +- **Breakeven utilization**: Usually around 35–40% — below which you lose money +- **Revenue per court per year**: Target €150k+ at maturity + +### Sensitivity Analysis + +Model what happens if utilization is 10% lower than planned, if the average price drops by €5, or if construction costs overrun by 20%. This is what banks want to see — that you survive the downside. + +--- + +## How to Decide Where to Build + +1. **Catchment area analysis**: Draw a 15-minute and 30-minute drive-time radius around candidate sites. Analyze population density, household income, age distribution (25–55 is the core padel demographic), and existing sports participation rates. + +2. **Competition mapping**: Map every existing padel facility within 30 minutes. Call them, check their booking systems — are courts booked out at peak? If competitors are running at 80%+ utilization, that's a strong signal of unmet demand. + +3. **Accessibility**: Is the site easy to reach by car? Is there public transit access? Is there adequate parking (rule of thumb: 2–3 spaces per court minimum)? + +4. **Visibility**: A location on a main road or near a commercial hub generates organic awareness. A hidden industrial estate requires more marketing spend. + +5. **Building suitability**: For a conversion, check ceiling height (10m+), column-free spans (a standard padel court is 20m × 10m, so you need clear spans of at least 22m × 12m per court including safety zones), floor load capacity, and utility connections. + +6. **Rent/cost level**: Balance the desire for a premium location against the need for affordable rent. Padel halls need large floor areas (1,500–3,000 sqm for 4–8 courts plus amenities), so rent per sqm matters enormously. Industrial or light commercial zones often offer the best cost-to-space ratio. + +7. **Growth trajectory**: Is the area developing? Are there new residential or office developments planned nearby? Building ahead of growth can give you first-mover advantage. + +8. **Regulatory environment**: Some municipalities are more supportive of sports facilities than others. Check zoning, noise regulations (especially if considering outdoor courts), and the speed of permit processes. + +--- + +## Corporate Finance & Valuation Perspective + +### NPV & IRR + +Discount your projected free cash flows at your WACC (or required return on equity if all-equity financed) to get a net present value. The IRR tells you whether the project clears your hurdle rate. For a padel hall, you'd typically want an unlevered IRR of 15–25% to justify the risk of a single-asset, operationally intensive business. Compare this against alternative uses of your capital. + +### WACC & Cost of Capital + +If you're blending debt and equity, calculate your weighted average cost of capital properly. Bank debt for a sports facility might run 4–7% depending on jurisdiction and collateral. Your equity cost should reflect the illiquidity premium and operational risk — this isn't a passive real estate investment, it's an operating business. A reasonable cost of equity might be 12–20%. + +### Terminal Value + +If you model 5 years of explicit cash flows, you need a terminal value. You can use a perpetuity growth model (FCF year 5 × (1+g) / (WACC – g)) or an exit multiple. For the exit multiple approach, think about what a buyer would pay — likely 4–7x EBITDA for a mature, well-run single-location padel hall, potentially higher if it's part of a multi-site rollout story. + +### Lease vs. Buy + +A critical capital allocation decision. Buying the property ties up far more capital but gives you residual asset value and eliminates landlord risk. Leasing preserves capital for operations and expansion but exposes you to rent increases and lease termination risk. Model both scenarios and compare the risk-adjusted NPV. Also consider sale-and-leaseback if you build on owned land. + +### Operating Leverage + +A padel hall has high fixed costs (rent, staff base, debt service) and relatively low variable costs. This means profitability is extremely sensitive to utilization. Model the operating leverage explicitly — a 10% swing in utilization might cause a 25–30% swing in EBITDA. This is both the opportunity and the risk. + +### Depreciation & Tax Shield + +Padel courts depreciate over 7–10 years, building fit-out over 10–15 years, equipment over 3–5 years. The depreciation tax shield is meaningful. Interest expense on debt is also tax-deductible. Model your effective tax rate and the present value of these shields — they improve your after-tax returns materially. + +### Working Capital Cycle + +Padel halls are generally working-capital-light (customers pay at booking or on arrival, you pay suppliers on 30–60 day terms). But model the initial ramp-up period where you're carrying costs before revenue reaches steady state. The pre-opening cash burn and first 6–12 months of sub-breakeven operation is where most of your working capital risk sits. + +### Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis + +Model three scenarios (bear/base/bull) varying utilization, pricing, and cost overruns simultaneously. Identify the breakeven utilization rate precisely. A Monte Carlo simulation on the key variables (utilization, average price, construction cost, ramp-up speed) gives you a probability distribution of outcomes rather than a single point estimate. + +### Exit Strategy & Valuation + +Think about this upfront. Are you building to hold and cash-flow, or building to sell to a consolidator or franchise operator? The exit multiple depends heavily on whether you've built a transferable business (brand, systems, trained staff, long lease) or an owner-dependent operation. Multi-site operators and franchise groups trade at higher multiples (6–10x EBITDA) than single sites. + +### Optionality Value + +A successful first hall gives you the option to expand — second location, franchise model, or selling the playbook. This real option has value that a static DCF doesn't capture. Similarly, if you own the land/building, you have conversion optionality (the building could be repurposed if padel demand fades). + +### Counterparty & Concentration Risk + +You're exposed to a single landlord (lease risk), a single location (demand risk), and potentially a single sport (trend risk). A bank or sophisticated investor will flag all three. Mitigants include long lease terms with caps on escalation, diversified revenue streams (F&B, events, coaching), and contractual protections. + +### Subsidies & Grants + +Many municipalities and national sports bodies offer grants or subsidized loans for sports infrastructure. In some European countries, this can cover 10–30% of CAPEX. Factor this into your funding plan — it's essentially free equity that boosts your returns. + +### VAT & Tax Structuring + +Depending on your jurisdiction, court rental may be VAT-exempt or reduced-rate (sports exemption), while F&B is standard-rated. This affects pricing strategy and cash flow. The entity structure (single GmbH, holding structure, partnership) has implications for profit extraction, liability, and eventual exit taxation. Worth getting tax advice early. + +### Insurance & Business Interruption + +Price in comprehensive insurance — property, liability, business interruption. A fire or structural issue that shuts you down for 3 months could be existential without BI coverage. This is a real cost that's often underestimated. + +### Covenant Compliance + +If you take bank debt, you'll likely face covenants — DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) minimums of 1.2–1.5x, leverage caps, possibly revenue milestones. Model your covenant headroom explicitly. Breaching a covenant in year 1 during ramp-up is a real risk if you've over-leveraged. + +### Inflation Sensitivity + +Energy costs, staff wages, and maintenance all inflate. Can you pass these through via price increases without killing utilization? Model a scenario where costs inflate at 3–5% but you can only raise prices by 2–3%. + +### Residual / Liquidation Value + +In a downside scenario, what are your assets worth? Padel courts have some resale value. Building improvements are largely sunk. If you've leased, your downside is limited to equity invested plus any personal guarantees. If you've bought property, the real estate retains value but may take time to sell. Model the liquidation scenario honestly. + +--- + +## Risk Register + +### Existential Risks + +- **Trend / Fad Risk**: Padel is booming now, but so did squash in the 1980s. You're locking in a 10–15 year investment thesis on a sport that may plateau or decline. The key question is whether padel reaches self-sustaining critical mass in your market or stays a novelty. If utilization drops from 65% to 35% in year 5 because the hype fades, your entire model breaks. This is largely unhedgeable. + +- **Force Majeure / Pandemic Risk**: COVID shut down indoor sports facilities for months. Insurance may not cover it. Having enough cash reserves or credit facilities to survive 3–6 months of zero revenue is prudent. + +### Construction & Development Risks + +- **Construction Cost Overruns & Delays**: Sports facility builds routinely overrun by 15–30%. Every month of delay is a month of carrying costs (rent, debt service, staff already hired) with zero revenue. Build a contingency buffer of 15–20% of CAPEX minimum and negotiate fixed-price construction contracts where possible. + +### Property & Lease Risks + +- **Landlord Risk**: If you're leasing, you're spending €500k+ fitting out someone else's building. What happens if the landlord sells, goes bankrupt, or refuses to renew? You need a long lease (15+ years), with options to renew, and ideally a step-in right or compensation clause for tenant improvements. + +### Competitive Risks + +- **Cannibalization from New Entrants**: Your success is visible — full courts, long waitlists. This attracts competitors. Someone opens a new hall 10 minutes away, and your utilization drops from 70% to 50%. There's no real moat in padel besides location, community loyalty, and service quality. Model what happens when a competitor opens nearby in year 3. + +### Operational Risks + +- **Key Person Dependency**: If the whole operation depends on one founder-operator or one star coach who brings all the members, that's a fragility. Illness, burnout, or departure can crater the business. + +- **Staff Retention & Labor Market**: Good facility managers, coaches, and front-desk staff with a hospitality mindset are hard to find and keep. Turnover is expensive and disruptive. In tight labor markets, wage pressure can erode margins. + +- **Court Maintenance & Replacement Cycle**: Padel court surfaces, glass panels, and turf have a lifespan — typically 5–8 years for artificial turf, longer for glass and structure. Budget for a major refurbishment cycle. If you don't maintain court quality, players notice quickly and leave. + +- **F&B Complexity**: Food and beverage is an entirely different business with its own regulatory requirements (health inspections, liquor licenses), spoilage, staffing challenges, and thin margins. It can easily become a distraction or loss-maker if not managed well. Consider outsourcing to a third-party operator. + +- **Seasonality & Weather**: If you have outdoor courts or your market has strong seasonality, indoor utilization may swing significantly. Model monthly cash flows, not just annual averages — a bad quarter can create a liquidity crunch even if the annual numbers work. + +### Financial Risks + +- **Energy Price Volatility**: Indoor padel halls consume significant energy. Energy costs spiking can destroy margins. Consider locking in energy contracts, investing in solar panels, or using LED lighting and efficient HVAC to reduce exposure. + +- **Financing Environment**: If interest rates rise between when you plan the project and when you draw down the loan, your debt service costs increase. Lock in rates where possible, or stress-test your model at rates 2% higher than current. + +- **Personal Guarantee Exposure**: Banks lending to a single-asset sports facility will almost certainly require personal guarantees from the founders. This means your personal assets (house, savings) are at risk if the business fails. + +- **Customer Concentration**: If 30% of your revenue comes from a few corporate clients or one large league, losing that client is painful. Diversify your revenue base. + +- **Inflation Pass-Through**: Energy costs, staff wages, and maintenance all inflate. If you can't fully pass these through via price increases, margins erode over time. + +### Regulatory & Legal Risks + +- **Noise Complaints**: Padel is loud — the ball hitting glass walls generates significant noise. Neighbors can complain and municipal authorities can impose operating hour restrictions or require expensive sound mitigation. Check local noise ordinances thoroughly before committing. + +- **Injury Liability**: Padel involves glass walls, fast-moving balls, and quick lateral movement. Player injuries happen. Proper insurance, waiver systems, and court maintenance protocols are essential. + +### Technology & Platform Risks + +- **Booking Platform Dependency**: If you rely on a third-party booking platform like Playtomic, you're giving them access to your customer relationships and paying commission. They could raise fees, change terms, or steer demand to competitors. + +### Reputational Risks + +- **Brand / Reputation Risk**: One viral negative review, a hygiene issue, a safety incident, or a social media complaint can disproportionately hurt a local leisure business. + +### Currency & External Risks + +- **Currency Risk**: Relevant if importing courts or equipment from another currency zone — padel court manufacturers are often Spanish or Italian, so FX moves can affect CAPEX if you're outside the Eurozone. + +### Opportunity Cost + +The capital, time, and energy you put into this project could go elsewhere. If you could earn 8–10% passively in diversified investments, a padel hall needs to deliver meaningfully more on a risk-adjusted basis to justify the concentration, illiquidity, and personal time commitment.