diff --git a/transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/serving/location_profiles.sql b/transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/serving/location_profiles.sql index 84995ec..542a221 100644 --- a/transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/serving/location_profiles.sql +++ b/transform/sqlmesh_padelnomics/models/serving/location_profiles.sql @@ -19,20 +19,23 @@ -- 10 pts economic context — income PPS normalised to 25,000 ceiling -- 10 pts data quality — completeness discount -- --- Padelnomics Opportunity Score (Marktpotenzial-Score v7, 0–100): +-- Padelnomics Opportunity Score (Marktpotenzial-Score v8, 0–100): -- "Where should I build a padel court?" -- Computed for ALL locations — zero-court locations score highest on supply deficit. -- H3 catchment methodology: addressable market and supply deficit use a regional -- H3 catchment (res-5 cell + 6 neighbours, ~24km radius). -- --- v7 changes: country-level supply saturation dampener on supply deficit. --- Saturated countries (Spain 7.4/100k) get dampened supply deficit (×0.30 → 12 pts max). --- Emerging markets (Germany 0.24/100k) are nearly unaffected (×0.98 → ~39 pts). --- Floor at 0.3 so supply deficit never fully vanishes. +-- v8 changes: better spread/discrimination. +-- - Reweight: addressable market 20→15, economic power 15→10, supply deficit 40→50. +-- - Supply deficit existence dampener: country_venues/50 factor (0.1–1.0). +-- Zero-venue countries get max 5 pts supply deficit (was 50). +-- - Steeper addressable market curve: LN/500K → SQRT/1M. +-- - NULL distance gap → 0.0 (was 0.5). Unknown = assume nearby. +-- - Added country_percentile output column (PERCENT_RANK within country). -- --- 20 pts addressable market — log-scaled catchment population, ceiling 500K --- 15 pts economic power — income PPS, normalised to 35,000 --- 40 pts supply deficit — max(density gap, distance gap) × country dampener +-- 15 pts addressable market — sqrt-scaled catchment population, ceiling 1M +-- 10 pts economic power — income PPS, normalised to 35,000 +-- 50 pts supply deficit — max(density gap, distance gap) × existence dampener -- 10 pts sports culture — tennis court density as racquet-sport adoption proxy -- 5 pts construction affordability — income relative to construction costs (PLI) -- 10 pts market headroom — inverse country-level avg market maturity @@ -228,28 +231,29 @@ country_supply AS ( -- Step 4: add opportunity_score using country market validation + supply saturation. scored AS ( SELECT ms.*, - -- ── Opportunity Score (Marktpotenzial-Score v7, H3 catchment) ────────── + -- ── Opportunity Score (Marktpotenzial-Score v8, H3 catchment) ────────── ROUND( - -- Addressable market (20 pts): log-scaled catchment population, ceiling 500K - 20.0 * LEAST(1.0, LN(GREATEST(catchment_population, 1)) / LN(500000)) - -- Economic power (15 pts): income PPS normalised to 35,000 - + 15.0 * LEAST(1.0, COALESCE(median_income_pps, 15000) / 35000.0) - -- Supply deficit (40 pts): max of density gap and distance gap. - -- Dampened by country-level supply saturation: - -- Spain (7.4/100k) → dampener 0.30 → 12 pts max - -- Germany (0.24/100k) → dampener 0.98 → ~39 pts max - + 40.0 * GREATEST( + -- Addressable market (15 pts): sqrt-scaled catchment population, ceiling 1M + 15.0 * LEAST(1.0, SQRT(GREATEST(catchment_population, 1) / 1000000.0)) + -- Economic power (10 pts): income PPS normalised to 35,000 + + 10.0 * LEAST(1.0, COALESCE(median_income_pps, 15000) / 35000.0) + -- Supply deficit (50 pts): max of density gap and distance gap. + -- Dampened by market existence: country_venues/50 (0.1–1.0). + -- 0 venues in country → factor 0.1 → max 5 pts supply deficit + -- 10 venues → 0.2 → max 10 pts + -- 50+ venues → 1.0 → full credit + + 50.0 * GREATEST( -- density-based gap (H3 catchment): 0 courts = 1.0, 5/100k = 0.0 GREATEST(0.0, 1.0 - COALESCE( CASE WHEN catchment_population > 0 THEN GREATEST(catchment_padel_courts, COALESCE(city_padel_venue_count, 0))::DOUBLE / catchment_population * 100000 ELSE 0.0 END, 0.0) / 5.0), - -- distance-based gap: 30km+ = 1.0, 0km = 0.0; NULL = 0.5 - COALESCE(LEAST(1.0, nearest_padel_court_km / 30.0), 0.5) + -- distance-based gap: 30km+ = 1.0, 0km = 0.0; NULL = 0.0 (assume nearby) + COALESCE(LEAST(1.0, nearest_padel_court_km / 30.0), 0.0) ) - -- Country supply dampener: floor 0.3 so deficit never fully vanishes - * GREATEST(0.3, 1.0 - COALESCE(cs.venues_per_100k, 0.0) / 10.0) + -- Market existence dampener: zero-venue countries get 0.1, 50+ venues = 1.0 + * GREATEST(0.1, LEAST(1.0, COALESCE(cs.country_venues, 0) / 50.0)) -- Sports culture (10 pts): tennis density as racquet-sport adoption proxy. -- Ceiling 50 courts within 25km. Harmless when tennis data is zero (contributes 0). + 10.0 * LEAST(1.0, COALESCE(tennis_courts_within_25km, 0) / 50.0) @@ -301,6 +305,9 @@ SELECT END AS catchment_venues_per_100k, LEAST(GREATEST(s.market_score, 0), 100) AS market_score, LEAST(GREATEST(s.opportunity_score, 0), 100) AS opportunity_score, + ROUND(PERCENT_RANK() OVER ( + PARTITION BY s.country_code ORDER BY s.opportunity_score + ) * 100, 0) AS country_percentile, s.median_hourly_rate, s.median_peak_rate, s.median_offpeak_rate,