# Padelnomics — Marketing Master Doc

> Living doc. Update state column as things progress. Last updated: 2026-02-22.

---

## Positioning & Messaging

**One-liner:** "The only platform that helps you plan, fund, and build a padel facility with real market data — not guesswork."

**DaaS framing (aspirational):** "Bloomberg for padel hall operators." We sell unfair advantages to people making six-figure facility investment decisions — using data nobody else is aggregating.

**30-second pitch:**
> We're building the data intelligence platform for the padel industry. We start with a free court planning tool that captures every aspiring padel entrepreneur via SEO. Then we layer real market intelligence on top — occupancy data, pricing, demand gaps, competitive analysis — scraped and aggregated from booking platforms. Operators making €200K decisions pay €79–149/month to de-risk their investment. As the market grows from 25K to 50K+ facilities, we become the industry-standard data backbone. Think "Kpler for padel" — bootstrapped, capital-efficient, moat that compounds daily.

**Core insight:** The job is never "I need a calculator." It's "I need to feel confident committing €200K+." Confidence is the product. Calculator is the vehicle.

### Why This Works (DaaS Thesis)

| Check | Answer |
|-------|--------|
| High-stakes decisions? | ✅ €100K–€500K facility investments |
| Information asymmetry? | ✅ No centralized market data exists |
| Willingness to pay? | ✅ B2B operators, not casual players |
| Unique data capability? | ✅ Playtomic scraping + multi-source aggregation |
| 500+ potential customers? | ✅ ~25,000 padel facilities globally, growing to 50K+ |
| Low commoditization risk? | ✅ Historical data depth = compounding moat |

**Analogy:** Kpler started by tracking LNG cargo shipments in an opaque commodity market. We're doing the same for padel: tracking "demand shipments" (bookings) across an opaque facility market.

### Competitive Positioning

| vs. | Their position | Our position |
|-----|---------------|--------------|
| Playtomic | OpenTable for padel — booking marketplace for players | Restaurant P&L analytics suite — optimizing for operators. Complementary, we sit on top of their data. |
| Padelfinder | Directory, no planning tools | Intelligence layer + planning + directory |
| Sportstättenrechner | Generic sports calculators, not padel-specific | Padel-specific, automated, with data moat |
| Generic BI (Tableau, Power BI) | Operator finds, cleans, models own data | Padel-specific insights out of the box. No setup, no data engineering. Just answers. |
| Nothing (current state) | Excel, gut feel, word of mouth. The real competitor. | 10× faster with 10× better data. |

---

## Platform Model (Two-Sided)

Padelnomics is a two-sided marketplace. Both sides must be acquired and retained.

```
Side A — Aspiring Owners          Side B — Suppliers / Builders
(Lead Supply)                     (Lead Demand / Revenue Engine)

Free planner → email capture  →→→  Lead marketplace → credits → MRR
     ↓                                    ↑
SEO traffic drives acquisition     Outreach + founding deals
     ↓                                    ↑
Small direct revenue               Main revenue: subscriptions + credits + upsells
(PDF export, market intel)
```

**Chicken-and-egg cold start:** Need aspiring owners using the planner to have leads. Need leads to sell supplier subscriptions. Need supplier directory for aspiring owners to trust the platform. Solve by: (1) launching calculator publicly first to build Side A, (2) simultaneously signing 2–3 founding suppliers at steep discount for social proof.

---

## Audiences

### Side A — Aspiring Owners (Lead Supply)

> First-time facility investor, €200K–2M decision. Primarily DACH.

**Job:** "Validate the opportunity with real data and build a credible financial case, so I can make a confident go/no-go decision and secure funding."

**Struggling moments (= acquisition triggers):**
1. "I've been talking about this for months and I need to decide"
2. "The bank asked for a business plan and I have no idea what to put in it"
3. "I found conflicting information and I don't know what to trust"
4. "A competitor just opened nearby — is there still room?"
5. "My partner/spouse is skeptical and I need proof"

**Emotional job:** Feel smart and diligent, not like someone who gambled on hype.
**Social job:** Look professional and thorough to banks / investors / spouse. ← underserved, pricing lever.

**Acquired via:** SEO, free calculator, content marketing.
**Direct revenue:** Business plan PDF (€99), market intel subscriptions (future).

#### Beachhead Sub-segment — Tennis/Sports Club Owner (Germany)

> Seeing padel demand from members, competitors adding courts. ~500–1,000 targets. Club board vote, not investor pitch.

**Why start here:** Small enough to dominate, talk to each other (DTB/federations), fastest decision cycle.

**Whole product needed:** Club-specific planner defaults, business plan PDF for board vote, 2–3 builder quotes, financing options.

**What NOT to build for this segment:** Operator dashboards, M&A tools, franchise features, AI advisor.

### Side B — Suppliers / Builders (Lead Demand, Main Revenue)

> Growing a construction/equipment business, wants qualified prospects not cold leads.

**Job:** "Get a reliable stream of serious prospects so I can focus on closing, not chasing."

**Struggling moments:**
1. "We quote 20 projects but only close 3. Most leads aren't serious"
2. "We have capacity for 5 more projects this quarter but pipeline is thin"
3. "A new competitor opened and they're undercutting price"

**Key insight:** Padelnomics leads come with full financial models attached — a builder can write a targeted proposal in 1 hour vs. 3 qualification calls.

**Acquired via:** Manual outreach, founding member deals, word-of-mouth.
**Revenue:** Directory subscriptions, lead credits, upsell stack.

### Future Segments (Phase 3+)

| Segment | Pain | Product | Price sensitivity |
|---------|------|---------|-------------------|
| Operating venue owner | "Am I performing well vs. market?" | Operational analytics (€49–99/mo) | Medium — easy ROI |
| Padel franchise | "Where should we expand next?" | Enterprise intelligence + API | Very low |
| Real estate developer | "Is padel viable for this space?" | Site selection reports (€499–999) | Very low |
| Equipment supplier | "Who's about to build a hall?" | Lead gen / affiliate partnerships | Pay per lead |
| Investor | "What does the padel market look like?" | Industry reports (€299–499) | Very low |

---

## Demand Phases (Aspiring Owner Buying Timeline)

| Phase | Timeframe | State of Mind | What Padelnomics Needs |
|-------|-----------|---------------|------------------------|
| Passive | 3–12 mo | "Padel is booming, I wonder about investing" | Thought leadership, market reports, social content |
| Active | 2–8 wk | "What does it cost? What's the ROI?" | Free calculator, SEO articles, city-specific pages |
| Deciding | 1–4 wk | "I need a tool, a builder, and a bank" | Full planner, PDF export, builder quotes, financing |
| Consuming | Ongoing | "Am I on track? Do I need to adjust?" | Benchmarks, competitive radar, performance tracking |

> **Current gap:** Padelnomics only serves Active + Deciding. Passive phase = no presence yet.

---

## Product Vision & Funnel

```
FREE: Padel Court Planner (ROI Calculator)
─ Distribution engine: SEO traffic, email capture, credibility
─ Also generates leads for Side B
         ↓
PAID: Market Intelligence Dashboard (€79–149/mo)
─ Core monetization from aspiring owners (Phase 2)
─ Occupancy data, pricing, demand gaps, city analytics
         ↓
EXPANSION: Operational Analytics (€49–99/mo)
─ Recurring revenue from operating venue owners (Phase 3)
─ Benchmarking, optimization, competitor alerts
         ↓
HIGH-TICKET: Consulting + Reports (€499–999)
─ Premium upsell: site selection reports, industry reports (Phase 4+)
```

### Phase 2 — Market Intelligence Dashboard (Month 1–3)

**What we scrape from Playtomic:**
- Booking slot availability → reverse-engineer occupancy rates per hall
- Listed pricing → map pricing strategies (peak vs. off-peak)
- New hall listings → track market expansion
- Halls disappearing / low bookings → detect failure signals
- Court counts per facility → supply density by area

**Dashboard features:**

| Feature | Value |
|---------|-------|
| Market Map | Interactive map of all halls with occupancy heat overlay |
| City Analytics | Avg occupancy, pricing, court density, growth trends per city |
| Site Selection Tool | "Enter a location → see demand, competition, revenue potential" |
| Competitor Spy | Track any hall's occupancy and pricing over time |
| Demand Gaps | Identify underserved areas (high population, low court density) |
| Trend Reports | Which cities are growing fastest, weekly/monthly |

**Tiers:** Explorer (€79/mo) · Pro (€149/mo) · Enterprise (custom, multi-country + API)

**Killer pitch:** *"You're about to invest €200K. For €149/month, you'll know that the 4 halls near your target location run at 73% weekday occupancy and 94% weekends, charge €40/hour peak, and that there's an underserved suburb 15km north with zero courts and 200K residents."*

### Phase 3 — Operational Analytics (Month 3–6)

Every Phase 1 planner user who actually opens a hall becomes a Phase 3 customer. Built-in pipeline.

- Benchmark your hall vs. market averages (occupancy, pricing, revenue/court)
- Pricing optimization — see competitor pricing, get dynamic suggestions
- Demand forecasting — historical patterns + weather + local events
- Competitor alerts — new hall openings, pricing changes nearby
- Utilization tracking — connect booking system or manual input

---

## Data Moat Strategy

The moat compounds over time — this is critical to long-term defensibility.

1. **Historical depth** — Every day of scraping = data competitors can't replicate. In 12 months we'll have a year of occupancy trends nobody else has.
2. **Multi-source aggregation** — Start with Playtomic, add other booking platforms, Google Maps reviews, social signals, weather, demographics, real estate pricing.
3. **Network effects** — As operating customers share their own data for benchmarking, the dataset grows. More data → better insights → more customers → more data.
4. **Processing layer** — Raw bookings → occupancy models → demand forecasting → site selection algorithms. The ML/analytics layer is hard to replicate.

**Scraping risk mitigation:** Scrape respectfully (1×/day), diversify data sources early, build toward voluntary data sharing from hall operators.

---

## Channel Strategy

### Owned (build now)

| Channel | Approach | State |
|---------|----------|-------|
| **Email list** | Gate planner results behind email; build from day 1 | [ ] Not live |
| **SEO blog** | Programmatic city articles + editorial content | [~] In progress |
| **Public free calculator** | No-signup, shareable URL; primary traffic driver | [ ] Not live |

### Rented (primary B2B)

| Channel | Approach | State |
|---------|----------|-------|
| **LinkedIn** | Founder posts, thought leadership, padel community | [ ] Not started |
| **Reddit** | r/padel, r/entrepreneur — seeding calculator, articles | [ ] Not started |
| **Facebook Groups** | Padel business groups, sports entrepreneur communities | [ ] Not started |

### Borrowed (Month 2+)

| Channel | Approach | State |
|---------|----------|-------|
| Padel podcasts | Guest appearances, case studies | [ ] Planned |
| Sports business media | Press outreach ("padel boom + intelligence gap" angle) | [ ] Planned |
| National padel associations | DTB, LTA, etc. — co-distribution potential | [ ] Planned |
| Lenders as distribution | Banks recommend Padelnomics plans → massive trust signal | [ ] Future |

### Skip (explicitly excluded at launch)

- Product Hunt
- Paid ads
- Twitter/X
- Webinars

---

## SEO & Content

### Topic Cluster Structure

```
Hub: /padel-business/
  ├── costs, market, location, business plan
Hub: /rechner/ (or /calculator/)
  ├── cost, ROI, financing calculators
Hub: /markt/ (or /market/)
  ├── /markt/berlin, /markt/muenchen, etc.
```

### Priority Articles (write in this order)

| # | Title | Phase Served | State |
|---|-------|--------------|-------|
| 1 | "Is Padel Still a Good Investment in 2026? The Data Says..." | Passive | [ ] |
| 2 | "How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany?" | Active | [ ] |
| 3 | "What Banks Want to See in a Padel Business Plan" | Deciding | [ ] |
| 4 | "State of Padel Q1 2026" (market report, email-gated) | Passive + PR | [ ] |
| 5+ | Programmatic city pages (Berlin, Munich, Hamburg...) | Active | [ ] |

### SEO Targets

- "padel court business plan" / "padel halle business plan"
- "padel hall ROI calculator" / "padel rechner"
- "how to open padel hall" / "padel halle eröffnen"
- "padel court cost Germany" / "padel halle kosten"
- City variants: "padel [city]" patterns

### Programmatic SEO

City articles via CMS template engine (see `docs/CMS.md`). Template → CSV → generate → serve. `[scenario:slug:section]` markers embed planner output. Stagger via `articles_per_day`.

---

## Product-Led Growth

### Free Tool Flywheel (Finanzfluss / Sportstättenrechner model)

Proven by Sportstättenrechner: 18,400 unique users/month, 492 leads/month forwarded to paying suppliers, revenue ~€500K–750K/yr. We replicate padel-specific + add automated self-serve marketplace layer.

**Free tools to build (traffic generators):**

| Tool | URL | State |
|------|-----|-------|
| Padel ROI Calculator | /rechner or /calculator | [~] Exists, gated |
| Padel Market Map | /map or /courts | [ ] Planned |
| Location Scorer | /score | [ ] Future |
| Market Report PDF | /reports/q1-2026 | [ ] Planned |
| Unit Economics Benchmarks | /benchmarks | [ ] Future |

**Critical first step:** Ungate the calculator — no signup required, shareable URL, email gate after results. #1 RICE item (score 1,350).

### Email Capture Gate

After calculator results: prompt for email to save/share scenario. Every planner user = email lead.

---

## Supplier Acquisition (Side B)

### Founding Member Deals (launch goal)

- Steep discount in exchange for testimonials / social proof
- Target: 2–3 deals in first 30 days
- Manual outreach, 30–50 contacts per market
- Script: "Free leads for 3 months, just respond within 48hr. After month 1, would you pay €199/mo for continued access?" (Infiltrator pretotype)

### Directory Tiers

| Tier | Price | Includes | State |
|------|-------|----------|-------|
| Basic | Free | Listing, no leads | [ ] |
| Growth | €149/mo | Listing + 30 credits/mo + basic analytics | [ ] |
| Pro | €399/mo | Listing + 100 credits/mo + full analytics | [ ] |

### Upsell Stack (RemoteOK playbook)

Pre-select recommended bundle (logo + highlight + verified + lead feed = ~€316/mo). Suppliers actively uncheck what they don't want. When Pieter Levels added upsells on RemoteOK, avg price jumped from $310 → $484 overnight.

| Upsell | Price | Claimed lift | State |
|--------|-------|--------------|-------|
| Company logo | €29/mo | +40% clicks | [ ] |
| Highlight listing | €39/mo | +65% views | [ ] |
| Verified badge | €49/mo | +55% inquiries | [ ] |
| Custom brand color | €59/mo | +80% recognition | [ ] |
| Lead feed access | €199/mo | Direct contact | [ ] |
| Newsletter feature | €99/mo | +120 impressions/wk | [ ] |
| Sticky top 1 week | €79 | 2× views | [ ] |
| Sticky top 1 month | €199 | 6× views | [ ] |

### Lead Marketplace (credit system)

Inspired by Bark.com. Planner users' specs become anonymized briefs in a feed:
> "Indoor padel center, 6 courts, Lower Saxony, €400K–600K budget, Q3 2026"

Suppliers self-select which leads to unlock with credits. Lead cost scales by project value.

**Heat scoring:**

| Heat | Credits | Signals |
|------|---------|---------|
| Hot | 30–40 | Location secured + financing + <6mo timeline + solo decision |
| Warm | 15–25 | Shortlisted + seeking financing + 6–12mo + partners |
| Cool | 5–10 | Still searching + not started + 12+mo + committee |

**Credit packs:**

| Pack | Price | Per credit |
|------|-------|-----------|
| 25 credits | €99 | €3.96 |
| 50 credits | €179 | €3.58 |
| 100 credits | €329 | €3.29 |
| 250 credits | €749 | €3.00 |

---

## Revenue Streams

### Core (now)

| Stream | Model | State |
|--------|-------|-------|
| Lead credits (Side B) | Suppliers buy credits to unlock leads | [ ] Not live |
| Directory subscriptions (Side B) | Growth €149/mo, Pro €399/mo | [ ] Not live |
| Directory upsells (Side B) | Logo, highlight, verified, sticky | [ ] Not live |
| Business Plan PDF (Side A) | €99 one-time | [ ] CTA exists, no product |

### Near-term (Phase 2–3)

| Stream | Model | State |
|--------|-------|-------|
| Business Plan Pro (Side A) | €39/mo subscription | [ ] Planned |
| Market Intelligence Explorer | €79/mo | [ ] Phase 2 |
| Market Intelligence Pro | €149/mo | [ ] Phase 2 |
| Operational Analytics | €49–99/mo (operating venues) | [ ] Phase 3 |

### High-ticket (Phase 4+)

| Stream | Model | State |
|--------|-------|-------|
| Site Selection Reports | €499–999 one-time | [ ] Future |
| Padel Hall Accelerator | €999 (report + call + introductions) | [ ] Future |
| Industry Reports | €299–499 quarterly | [ ] Future |
| Enterprise / API | Custom pricing | [ ] Future |

### Affiliate & Partnerships

| Stream | Model | State |
|--------|-------|-------|
| Equipment supplier affiliates | €500–1,000/lead or 5% of sale | [ ] Future |
| "Wirecutter for padel" | SEO affiliate site: racket reviews, gear guides, €1–3K/mo passive | [ ] Future |
| Franchise partnerships | Market data or qualified leads for franchise brands | [ ] Future |
| Newsletter sponsorships | "The Padel Business Report" — €200–1,000/wk at 5K+ subs | [ ] Future |
| API / data licensing | Raw data feeds to hedge funds, analysts, franchise operators | [ ] Future |

---

## Email & Nurture

| Step | Description | State |
|------|-------------|-------|
| Capture | Email gate on planner results | [ ] Not live |
| Welcome sequence | Introduce platform, case studies, articles | [ ] Not started |
| Lead nurture (Side A) | 5–7 email sequence for aspiring owners | [ ] Not started |
| Supplier nurture (Side B) | Separate sequence for suppliers | [ ] Not started |

---

## PR & Partnerships

| Opportunity | Approach | State |
|-------------|----------|-------|
| "State of Padel Q1 2026" report | Write with limited data, gate behind email, post LinkedIn, email 20 industry contacts. Target: 200+ downloads, 5+ shares, 1+ media citation | [ ] Planned |
| Padel podcasts | Guest spots, position as data/planning expert | [ ] Month 2+ |
| National associations (DTB etc.) | Co-distribution, credibility | [ ] Month 2+ |
| Sports business press | Angle: "padel boom + nobody has the data" | [ ] Month 2+ |
| Lenders as distribution | Banks recommend Padelnomics plans → massive trust signal + built-in pipeline | [ ] Future |

---

## Pretotypes (validate before building)

| Idea | Test Method | Success Metric | State |
|------|------------|----------------|-------|
| Business Plan PDF export | Fake door: button → "launching soon + email capture" | 10%+ click rate, 30%+ leave email | [ ] |
| Location Scorer | Mechanical Turk: landing page → manual PDF delivery within 24hr | 20+ submissions/wk, 3+ ask "how much for more detail?" | [ ] |
| Operator Benchmarking | One-night stand: offer 5 venue owners free competitive analysis | 3/5 say yes AND ask for next update unprompted | [ ] Future |
| Builder Subscriptions | Infiltrator: free leads for 3mo → ask if they'd pay €199/mo | 3+ builders want to continue AND will pay | [~] Doing with founding members |
| Market Reports | Pinocchio: write Q1 2026 report with limited data, gate + share widely | 200+ downloads, 5+ shares, 1 media citation | [ ] |

---

## Geographic Expansion

**Current:** Germany + English (USA, UK).

**Whitespace (nobody has replicated Sportstättenrechner model in):**
France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Portugal, UAE/Middle East, Mexico/Latin America, UK (properly).

First-mover in each captures the entire search funnel for "how to open a padel hall in [country]."

**Roadmap:** DACH → Western Europe → Global. ~Month 12–24.

---

## Timelines

> Assumes ~half a day per feature, 20–30 hrs/week. Big chunks are already built: planner (HTMX-refactored), auth, CMS + 80 SEO articles, i18n (EN+DE), supplier directory scaffold, 9-step quote wizard, Playtomic extractor + DuckDB pipeline, market data endpoint, Paddle billing setup, Resend + waitlist mode. Timelines reflect remaining work only.

### What's already done (confirmed by code audit 2026-02-22)

Most "Week 1" items were already shipped. The actual state:
- ✅ Planner fully open — no login gate, never was one
- ✅ Supplier directory live — public, no waitlist gate
- ✅ Business Plan PDF — full WeasyPrint pipeline, not just a CTA
- ✅ Paddle billing — 18 products, webhooks, checkout, subscription lifecycle fully wired
- ✅ Lead admin view — full list/detail/status/manual-forward management
- ✅ Supplier dashboard — 4 tabs, credit-based unlock, listing editor, boosts
- ✅ Credit system — balance, ledger, atomic unlock, monthly refill
- ✅ Quote wizard — 9-step, heat scoring, email verification

### Go-Live (this week, config not code)
- [ ] Paddle: switch from sandbox to production (env vars + `setup_paddle`)
- [ ] Publish SEO articles on prod (`seed_content --generate` or admin panel)
- [ ] Wipe 5 test suppliers (`example.com` entries, not real data)
- [ ] Verify Resend production API key — test a real email
- [ ] Submit sitemap to Google Search Console

### Week 1–2 — First Revenue Signal
- [ ] Email nurture sequence (3-email drip for planner users — Resend infra exists, write content + schedule)
- [ ] 30–50 supplier outreach emails
- [ ] 2–3 founding member deals (free leads for 3 months)
- [ ] "State of Padel Q1 2026" report written + published
- [ ] First 3 priority SEO articles
- [ ] LinkedIn: first 5 posts

### Week 2–4 — Market Map
- [ ] Market map UI (geographic viz over DuckDB city data — only tech that doesn't exist yet)
- [ ] Follow up on founding member outreach
- [ ] More SEO articles

### Month 2 — Market Intelligence MVP
> Data pipeline already running (Playtomic + SQLMesh + DuckDB). Mostly a UI build.
- [ ] Market Intelligence Dashboard (city analytics, occupancy estimates, demand map)
- [ ] Explorer tier paywall (€79/mo)
- [ ] Target: €1,500–3,000/mo

### Month 3–6 — Pro Tier + Operational Analytics
- [ ] Market Intelligence Pro (€149/mo, hall-level data, competitor tracking)
- [ ] Operational analytics for running venues (€49–99/mo)
- [ ] Location Scorer MVP (mechanical turk initially)
- [ ] Target: €3,000–8,000/mo

### Month 6–12 — Scale
- [ ] Site Selection Reports (high-ticket)
- [ ] "State of Padel" quarterly reports (gated, press distribution)
- [ ] Enterprise tier + API
- [ ] Pan-European expansion (FR, IT, NL, SE — cities already seeded)
- [ ] Target: €8,000–20,000/mo

### Revenue milestones

| Milestone | Target MRR | Realistic timeline |
|-----------|-----------|-------------------|
| First paying customer | €99–499 | Week 1–2 (post go-live config) |
| €1K MRR | €1,000 | Month 1 |
| €3K MRR | €3,000 | Month 2 |
| €8K MRR | €8,000 | Month 4–6 |
| €20K MRR | €20,000 | Month 8–12 |
| €35K+ MRR | €35,000+ | Month 12–18 |

**Path to €3K MRR:**
- Builder lead credits: €150/lead avg × 10 leads/mo = €1,500/mo
- Builder subscriptions: €199/mo avg × 3 builders = €597/mo
- Business plan export: €49/mo avg × 15 subs = €735/mo
- Total: ~€2,832/mo

---

## Source Files

> See `PROJECT.md` at repo root for open tasks, in-progress work, and done items.

These are the raw strategy files this doc consolidates. Treat this doc as the source of truth going forward.

- `research/PLAN.md` — Phase-by-phase execution plan with product specs & pricing
- `research/padelnomics-master-strategy.md` — 22-section strategic reference
- `research/padelnomics-strategy-stack.md` — 7 frameworks (Lean Canvas, Blue Ocean, Wardley, etc.)
- `research/padelnomics-jtbd-analysis.md` — Customer segments and struggling moments
- `research/padelnomics_lead_platform_discussion_summary.md` — Lead platform design + Sportstättenrechner analysis
- `research/padel-daas-vision-plan.md` — DaaS thesis, "Bloomberg for padel" vision, data moat strategy, name candidates
- `memory/launch-strategy.md` — Pre-launch sequencing and 30-day milestones