padelnomics/docs/MARKETING.md

Padelnomics — Marketing Master Doc

Living doc. Update state column as things progress. Last updated: 2026-02-22.

---

Positioning & Messaging

One-liner: "The only platform that helps you plan, fund, and build a padel facility with real market data — not guesswork."

DaaS framing (aspirational): "Bloomberg for padel hall operators." We sell unfair advantages to people making six-figure facility investment decisions — using data nobody else is aggregating.

30-second pitch:

We're building the data intelligence platform for the padel industry. We start with a free court planning tool that captures every aspiring padel entrepreneur via SEO. Then we layer real market intelligence on top — occupancy data, pricing, demand gaps, competitive analysis — scraped and aggregated from booking platforms. Operators making €200K decisions pay €79–149/month to de-risk their investment. As the market grows from 25K to 50K+ facilities, we become the industry-standard data backbone. Think "Kpler for padel" — bootstrapped, capital-efficient, moat that compounds daily.

Core insight: The job is never "I need a calculator." It's "I need to feel confident committing €200K+." Confidence is the product. Calculator is the vehicle.

Investment reality (from research/padel-hall-economics.md): 4-court outdoor commercial = €200K–€350K. Any indoor hall = €700K–€3M+. These are the primary addressable buyers. Single-court installs (€33K–€80K, mostly hotel/corporate add-ons) exist but are not the target for the lead marketplace — suppliers filter them out by project size anyway.

Why This Works (DaaS Thesis)

Check	Answer
High-stakes decisions?	✅ €100K–€500K facility investments
Information asymmetry?	✅ No centralized market data exists
Willingness to pay?	✅ B2B operators, not casual players
Unique data capability?	✅ Playtomic scraping + multi-source aggregation
500+ potential customers?	✅ ~25,000 padel facilities globally, growing to 50K+
Low commoditization risk?	✅ Historical data depth = compounding moat

Analogy: Kpler started by tracking LNG cargo shipments in an opaque commodity market. We're doing the same for padel: tracking "demand shipments" (bookings) across an opaque facility market.

Competitive Positioning

vs.	Their position	Our position
Playtomic	OpenTable for padel — booking marketplace for players	Restaurant P&L analytics suite — optimizing for operators. Complementary, we sit on top of their data.
Padelfinder	Directory, no planning tools	Intelligence layer + planning + directory
Sportstättenrechner	Generic sports calculators, not padel-specific	Padel-specific, automated, with data moat
Generic BI (Tableau, Power BI)	Operator finds, cleans, models own data	Padel-specific insights out of the box. No setup, no data engineering. Just answers.
Nothing (current state)	Excel, gut feel, word of mouth. The real competitor.	10× faster with 10× better data.

---

Platform Model (Two-Sided)

Padelnomics is a two-sided marketplace. Both sides must be acquired and retained.

Side A — Aspiring Owners          Side B — Suppliers / Builders
(Lead Supply)                     (Lead Demand / Revenue Engine)

Free planner → email capture  →→→  Lead marketplace → credits → MRR
     ↓                                    ↑
SEO traffic drives acquisition     Outreach + founding deals
     ↓                                    ↑
Small direct revenue               Main revenue: subscriptions + credits + upsells
(PDF export, market intel)

Chicken-and-egg cold start: Need aspiring owners using the planner to have leads. Need leads to sell supplier subscriptions. Need supplier directory for aspiring owners to trust the platform. Solve by: (1) launching calculator publicly first to build Side A, (2) simultaneously signing 2–3 founding suppliers at steep discount for social proof.

---

Audiences

Side A — Aspiring Owners (Lead Supply)

First-time facility investor, €200K–2M decision. Primarily DACH.

Job: "Validate the opportunity with real data and build a credible financial case, so I can make a confident go/no-go decision and secure funding."

Struggling moments (= acquisition triggers):

1. "I've been talking about this for months and I need to decide"
2. "The bank asked for a business plan and I have no idea what to put in it"
3. "I found conflicting information and I don't know what to trust"
4. "A competitor just opened nearby — is there still room?"
5. "My partner/spouse is skeptical and I need proof"

Emotional job: Feel smart and diligent, not like someone who gambled on hype. Social job: Look professional and thorough to banks / investors / spouse. ← underserved, pricing lever.

Acquired via: SEO, free calculator, content marketing. Direct revenue: Business plan PDF (€149), market intel subscriptions (future).

Beachhead Sub-segment — Tennis/Sports Club Owner (Germany)

Seeing padel demand from members, competitors adding courts. ~500–1,000 targets. Club board vote, not investor pitch.

Why start here: Small enough to dominate, talk to each other (DTB/federations), fastest decision cycle.

Whole product needed: Club-specific planner defaults, business plan PDF for board vote, 2–3 builder quotes, financing options.

What NOT to build for this segment: Operator dashboards, M&A tools, franchise features, AI advisor.

Side B — Suppliers / Builders (Lead Demand, Main Revenue)

Growing a construction/equipment business, wants qualified prospects not cold leads.

Job: "Get a reliable stream of serious prospects so I can focus on closing, not chasing."

Struggling moments:

1. "We quote 20 projects but only close 3. Most leads aren't serious"
2. "We have capacity for 5 more projects this quarter but pipeline is thin"
3. "A new competitor opened and they're undercutting price"

Key insight: Padelnomics leads come with full financial models attached — a builder can write a targeted proposal in 1 hour vs. 3 qualification calls.

Acquired via: Manual outreach, founding member deals, word-of-mouth. Revenue: Directory subscriptions, lead credits, upsell stack.

Future Segments (Phase 3+)

Segment	Pain	Product	Price sensitivity
Operating venue owner	"Am I performing well vs. market?"	Operational analytics (€49–99/mo)	Medium — easy ROI
Padel franchise	"Where should we expand next?"	Enterprise intelligence + API	Very low
Real estate developer	"Is padel viable for this space?"	Site selection reports (€499–999)	Very low
Equipment supplier	"Who's about to build a hall?"	Lead gen / affiliate partnerships	Pay per lead
Investor	"What does the padel market look like?"	Industry reports (€299–499)	Very low

---

Demand Phases (Aspiring Owner Buying Timeline)

Phase	Timeframe	State of Mind	What Padelnomics Needs
Passive	3–12 mo	"Padel is booming, I wonder about investing"	Thought leadership, market reports, social content
Active	2–8 wk	"What does it cost? What's the ROI?"	Free calculator, SEO articles, city-specific pages
Deciding	1–4 wk	"I need a tool, a builder, and a bank"	Full planner, PDF export, builder quotes, financing
Consuming	Ongoing	"Am I on track? Do I need to adjust?"	Benchmarks, competitive radar, performance tracking

Current gap: Padelnomics only serves Active + Deciding. Passive phase = no presence yet.

---

Product Vision & Funnel

FREE: Padel Court Planner (ROI Calculator)
─ Distribution engine: SEO traffic, email capture, credibility
─ Also generates leads for Side B
         ↓
PAID: Market Intelligence Dashboard (€79–149/mo)
─ Core monetization from aspiring owners (Phase 2)
─ Occupancy data, pricing, demand gaps, city analytics
         ↓
EXPANSION: Operational Analytics (€49–99/mo)
─ Recurring revenue from operating venue owners (Phase 3)
─ Benchmarking, optimization, competitor alerts
         ↓
HIGH-TICKET: Consulting + Reports (€499–999)
─ Premium upsell: site selection reports, industry reports (Phase 4+)

Phase 2 — Market Intelligence Dashboard (Month 1–3)

What we scrape from Playtomic:

• Booking slot availability → reverse-engineer occupancy rates per hall
• Listed pricing → map pricing strategies (peak vs. off-peak)
• New hall listings → track market expansion
• Halls disappearing / low bookings → detect failure signals
• Court counts per facility → supply density by area

Dashboard features:

Feature	Value
Market Map	Interactive map of all halls with occupancy heat overlay
City Analytics	Avg occupancy, pricing, court density, growth trends per city
Site Selection Tool	"Enter a location → see demand, competition, revenue potential"
Competitor Spy	Track any hall's occupancy and pricing over time
Demand Gaps	Identify underserved areas (high population, low court density)
Trend Reports	Which cities are growing fastest, weekly/monthly

Tiers: Explorer (€79/mo) · Pro (€149/mo) · Enterprise (custom, multi-country + API)

Killer pitch: "You're about to invest €200K. For €149/month, you'll know that the 4 halls near your target location run at 73% weekday occupancy and 94% weekends, charge €40/hour peak, and that there's an underserved suburb 15km north with zero courts and 200K residents."

Phase 3 — Operational Analytics (Month 3–6)

Every Phase 1 planner user who actually opens a hall becomes a Phase 3 customer. Built-in pipeline.

• Benchmark your hall vs. market averages (occupancy, pricing, revenue/court)
• Pricing optimization — see competitor pricing, get dynamic suggestions
• Demand forecasting — historical patterns + weather + local events
• Competitor alerts — new hall openings, pricing changes nearby
• Utilization tracking — connect booking system or manual input

---

Data Moat Strategy

The moat compounds over time — this is critical to long-term defensibility.

1. Historical depth — Every day of scraping = data competitors can't replicate. In 12 months we'll have a year of occupancy trends nobody else has.
2. Multi-source aggregation — Start with Playtomic, add other booking platforms, Google Maps reviews, social signals, weather, demographics, real estate pricing.
3. Network effects — As operating customers share their own data for benchmarking, the dataset grows. More data → better insights → more customers → more data.
4. Processing layer — Raw bookings → occupancy models → demand forecasting → site selection algorithms. The ML/analytics layer is hard to replicate.

Scraping risk mitigation: Scrape respectfully (1×/day), diversify data sources early, build toward voluntary data sharing from hall operators.

---

Channel Strategy

Owned (build now)

Channel	Approach	State
Email list	Gate planner results behind email; build from day 1	[ ] Not live
SEO blog	Programmatic city articles + editorial content	[~] In progress
Public free calculator	No-signup, shareable URL; primary traffic driver	[ ] Not live

Rented (primary B2B)

Channel	Approach	State
LinkedIn	Founder posts, thought leadership, padel community	[ ] Not started
Reddit	r/padel, r/entrepreneur — seeding calculator, articles	[ ] Not started
Facebook Groups	Padel business groups, sports entrepreneur communities	[ ] Not started

Borrowed (Month 2+)

Channel	Approach	State
Padel podcasts	Guest appearances, case studies	[ ] Planned
Sports business media	Press outreach ("padel boom + intelligence gap" angle)	[ ] Planned
National padel associations	DTB, LTA, etc. — co-distribution potential	[ ] Planned
Lenders as distribution	Banks recommend Padelnomics plans → massive trust signal	[ ] Future

Skip (explicitly excluded at launch)

• Product Hunt
• Paid ads
• Twitter/X
• Webinars

---

SEO & Content

Topic Cluster Structure

Hub: /padel-business/
  ├── costs, market, location, business plan
Hub: /rechner/ (or /calculator/)
  ├── cost, ROI, financing calculators
Hub: /markt/ (or /market/)
  ├── /markt/berlin, /markt/muenchen, etc.

Priority Articles (write in this order)

#	Title	Phase Served	State
1	"Is Padel Still a Good Investment in 2026? The Data Says..."	Passive	[ ]
2	"How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany?"	Active	[ ]
3	"What Banks Want to See in a Padel Business Plan"	Deciding	[ ]
4	"State of Padel Q1 2026" (market report, email-gated)	Passive + PR	[ ]
5+	Programmatic city pages (Berlin, Munich, Hamburg...)	Active	[ ]

SEO Targets

• "padel court business plan" / "padel halle business plan"
• "padel hall ROI calculator" / "padel rechner"
• "how to open padel hall" / "padel halle eröffnen"
• "padel court cost Germany" / "padel halle kosten"
• City variants: "padel [city]" patterns

Programmatic SEO

City articles via CMS template engine (see docs/CMS.md). Template → CSV → generate → serve. [scenario:slug:section] markers embed planner output. Stagger via articles_per_day.

---

Product-Led Growth

Free Tool Flywheel (Finanzfluss / Sportstättenrechner model)

Proven by Sportstättenrechner: 18,400 unique users/month, 492 leads/month forwarded to paying suppliers, revenue ~€500K–750K/yr. We replicate padel-specific + add automated self-serve marketplace layer.

Free tools to build (traffic generators):

Tool	URL	State
Padel ROI Calculator	/rechner or /calculator	[~] Exists, gated
Padel Market Map	/map or /courts	[ ] Planned
Location Scorer	/score	[ ] Future
Market Report PDF	/reports/q1-2026	[ ] Planned
Unit Economics Benchmarks	/benchmarks	[ ] Future

Critical first step: Ungate the calculator — no signup required, shareable URL, email gate after results. #1 RICE item (score 1,350).

Email Capture Gate

After calculator results: prompt for email to save/share scenario. Every planner user = email lead.

---

Supplier Acquisition (Side B)

Founding Member Deals (launch goal)

• Steep discount in exchange for testimonials / social proof
• Target: 2–3 deals in first 30 days
• Manual outreach, 30–50 contacts per market
• Script: "Free leads for 3 months, just respond within 48hr. After month 1, would you pay €199/mo for continued access?" (Infiltrator pretotype)

Directory Tiers

Tier	Price	Includes	State
Basic	Free	Listing, no leads	[ ]
Growth	€199/mo (€1,799/yr)	Listing + 30 credits/mo + basic analytics	[ ]
Pro	€499/mo (€4,499/yr)	Listing + 100 credits/mo + full analytics	[ ]

Upsell Stack (RemoteOK playbook)

Pre-select recommended bundle (logo + highlight + verified + lead feed = ~€316/mo). Suppliers actively uncheck what they don't want. When Pieter Levels added upsells on RemoteOK, avg price jumped from $310 → $484 overnight.

Upsell	Price	Claimed lift	State
Company logo	€29/mo	+40% clicks	[ ]
Highlight listing	€39/mo	+65% views	[ ]
Verified badge	€49/mo	+55% inquiries	[ ]
Custom brand color	€59/mo	+80% recognition	[ ]
Lead feed access	€199/mo	Direct contact	[ ]
Newsletter feature	€99/mo	+120 impressions/wk	[ ]
Sticky top 1 week	€79	2× views	[ ]
Sticky top 1 month	€199	6× views	[ ]

Lead Marketplace (credit system)

Inspired by Bark.com. Planner users' specs become anonymized briefs in a feed:

"Indoor padel center, 6 courts, Lower Saxony, €400K–600K budget, Q3 2026"

Suppliers self-select which leads to unlock with credits. Lead cost scales by project value.

Heat scoring:

Heat	Credits	Signals
Hot	30–40	Location secured + financing + <6mo timeline + solo decision
Warm	15–25	Shortlisted + seeking financing + 6–12mo + partners
Cool	5–10	Still searching + not started + 12+mo + committee

Credit packs:

Pack	Price	Per credit
25 credits	€99	€3.96
50 credits	€179	€3.58
100 credits	€329	€3.29
250 credits	€749	€3.00

---

Revenue Streams

Core (now)

Stream	Model	State
Lead credits (Side B)	Suppliers buy credits to unlock leads	[ ] Not live
Directory subscriptions (Side B)	Growth €149/mo, Pro €399/mo	[ ] Not live
Directory upsells (Side B)	Logo, highlight, verified, sticky	[ ] Not live
Business Plan PDF (Side A)	€149 one-time	[ ] CTA exists, no product

Near-term (Phase 2–3)

Stream	Model	State
Business Plan Pro (Side A)	€39/mo subscription	[ ] Planned
Market Intelligence Explorer	€79/mo	[ ] Phase 2
Market Intelligence Pro	€149/mo	[ ] Phase 2
Operational Analytics	€49–99/mo (operating venues)	[ ] Phase 3

High-ticket (Phase 4+)

Stream	Model	State
Site Selection Reports	€499–999 one-time	[ ] Future
Padel Hall Accelerator	€999 (report + call + introductions)	[ ] Future
Industry Reports	€299–499 quarterly	[ ] Future
Enterprise / API	Custom pricing	[ ] Future

Affiliate & Partnerships

Stream	Model	State
Equipment supplier affiliates	€500–1,000/lead or 5% of sale	[ ] Future
"Wirecutter for padel"	SEO affiliate site: racket reviews, gear guides, €1–3K/mo passive	[ ] Future
Franchise partnerships	Market data or qualified leads for franchise brands	[ ] Future
Newsletter sponsorships	"The Padel Business Report" — €200–1,000/wk at 5K+ subs	[ ] Future
API / data licensing	Raw data feeds to hedge funds, analysts, franchise operators	[ ] Future

---

Email & Nurture

Step	Description	State
Capture	Email gate on planner results	[ ] Not live
Welcome sequence	Introduce platform, case studies, articles	[ ] Not started
Lead nurture (Side A)	5–7 email sequence for aspiring owners	[ ] Not started
Supplier nurture (Side B)	Separate sequence for suppliers	[ ] Not started

---

PR & Partnerships

Opportunity	Approach	State
"State of Padel Q1 2026" report	Write with limited data, gate behind email, post LinkedIn, email 20 industry contacts. Target: 200+ downloads, 5+ shares, 1+ media citation	[ ] Planned
Padel podcasts	Guest spots, position as data/planning expert	[ ] Month 2+
National associations (DTB etc.)	Co-distribution, credibility	[ ] Month 2+
Sports business press	Angle: "padel boom + nobody has the data"	[ ] Month 2+
Lenders as distribution	Banks recommend Padelnomics plans → massive trust signal + built-in pipeline	[ ] Future

---

Pretotypes (validate before building)

Idea	Test Method	Success Metric	State
Business Plan PDF export	Fake door: button → "launching soon + email capture"	10%+ click rate, 30%+ leave email	[ ]
Location Scorer	Mechanical Turk: landing page → manual PDF delivery within 24hr	20+ submissions/wk, 3+ ask "how much for more detail?"	[ ]
Operator Benchmarking	One-night stand: offer 5 venue owners free competitive analysis	3/5 say yes AND ask for next update unprompted	[ ] Future
Builder Subscriptions	Infiltrator: free leads for 3mo → ask if they'd pay €199/mo	3+ builders want to continue AND will pay	[~] Doing with founding members
Market Reports	Pinocchio: write Q1 2026 report with limited data, gate + share widely	200+ downloads, 5+ shares, 1 media citation	[ ]

---

Geographic Expansion

Current: Germany + English (USA, UK).

Whitespace (nobody has replicated Sportstättenrechner model in): France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Portugal, UAE/Middle East, Mexico/Latin America, UK (properly).

First-mover in each captures the entire search funnel for "how to open a padel hall in [country]."

Roadmap: DACH → Western Europe → Global. ~Month 12–24.

---

Timelines

Assumes ~half a day per feature, 20–30 hrs/week. Big chunks are already built: planner (HTMX-refactored), auth, CMS + 80 SEO articles, i18n (EN+DE), supplier directory scaffold, 9-step quote wizard, Playtomic extractor + DuckDB pipeline, market data endpoint, Paddle billing setup, Resend + waitlist mode. Timelines reflect remaining work only.

What's already done (confirmed by code audit 2026-02-22)

Most "Week 1" items were already shipped. The actual state:

• ✅ Planner fully open — no login gate, never was one
• ✅ Supplier directory live — public, no waitlist gate
• ✅ Business Plan PDF — full WeasyPrint pipeline, not just a CTA
• ✅ Paddle billing — 18 products, webhooks, checkout, subscription lifecycle fully wired
• ✅ Lead admin view — full list/detail/status/manual-forward management
• ✅ Supplier dashboard — 4 tabs, credit-based unlock, listing editor, boosts
• ✅ Credit system — balance, ledger, atomic unlock, monthly refill
• ✅ Quote wizard — 9-step, heat scoring, email verification

Go-Live (this week, config not code)

• Paddle: switch from sandbox to production (env vars + setup_paddle)
• Publish SEO articles on prod (seed_content --generate or admin panel)
• Wipe 5 test suppliers (example.com entries, not real data)
• Verify Resend production API key — test a real email
• Submit sitemap to Google Search Console

Week 1–2 — First Revenue Signal

• Email nurture sequence (3-email drip for planner users — Resend infra exists, write content + schedule)
• 30–50 supplier outreach emails
• 2–3 founding member deals (free leads for 3 months)
• "State of Padel Q1 2026" report written + published
• First 3 priority SEO articles
• LinkedIn: first 5 posts

Week 2–4 — Market Map

• Market map UI (geographic viz over DuckDB city data — only tech that doesn't exist yet)
• Follow up on founding member outreach
• More SEO articles

Month 2 — Market Intelligence MVP

Data pipeline already running (Playtomic + SQLMesh + DuckDB). Mostly a UI build.

• Market Intelligence Dashboard (city analytics, occupancy estimates, demand map)
• Explorer tier paywall (€79/mo)
• Target: €1,500–3,000/mo

Month 3–6 — Pro Tier + Operational Analytics

• Market Intelligence Pro (€149/mo, hall-level data, competitor tracking)
• Operational analytics for running venues (€49–99/mo)
• Location Scorer MVP (mechanical turk initially)
• Target: €3,000–8,000/mo

Month 6–12 — Scale

• Site Selection Reports (high-ticket)
• "State of Padel" quarterly reports (gated, press distribution)
• Enterprise tier + API
• Pan-European expansion (FR, IT, NL, SE — cities already seeded)
• Target: €8,000–20,000/mo

Revenue milestones

Milestone	Target MRR	Realistic timeline
First paying customer	€99–499	Week 1–2 (post go-live config)
€1K MRR	€1,000	Month 1
€3K MRR	€3,000	Month 2
€8K MRR	€8,000	Month 4–6
€20K MRR	€20,000	Month 8–12
€35K+ MRR	€35,000+	Month 12–18

Path to €3K MRR:

• Builder lead credits: €150/lead avg × 10 leads/mo = €1,500/mo
• Builder subscriptions: €199/mo avg × 3 builders = €597/mo
• Business plan export: €49/mo avg × 15 subs = €735/mo
• Total: ~€2,832/mo

---

Source Files

See PROJECT.md at repo root for open tasks, in-progress work, and done items.

These are the raw strategy files this doc consolidates. Treat this doc as the source of truth going forward.

• research/PLAN.md — Phase-by-phase execution plan with product specs & pricing
• research/padelnomics-master-strategy.md — 22-section strategic reference
• research/padelnomics-strategy-stack.md — 7 frameworks (Lean Canvas, Blue Ocean, Wardley, etc.)
• research/padelnomics-jtbd-analysis.md — Customer segments and struggling moments
• research/padelnomics_lead_platform_discussion_summary.md — Lead platform design + Sportstättenrechner analysis
• research/padel-daas-vision-plan.md — DaaS thesis, "Bloomberg for padel" vision, data moat strategy, name candidates
• memory/launch-strategy.md — Pre-launch sequencing and 30-day milestones