44 KiB
44 KiB
Padelnomics — Full Strategy Stack
Building on the JTBD analysis, this document layers 7 additional strategic frameworks to answer: Where to play, what to build next, how to differentiate, how to sell, and how to grow.
1. Lean Canvas
One-page business model with every assumption made explicit.
┌─────────────────────────┬─────────────────────────┬─────────────────────────┐
│ 2. PROBLEM │ 4. SOLUTION │ 1. CUSTOMER SEGMENTS │
│ │ │ │
│ P1: Planning a padel │ S1: 60+ variable │ PRIMARY: │
│ facility requires │ financial planner with │ First-time padel │
│ €5K+ consultant or │ instant scenario │ entrepreneurs in DACH │
│ weeks of DIY │ comparison │ investing €200K-2M │
│ spreadsheet work │ │ │
│ │ S2: Bank-ready business │ EARLY ADOPTER: │
│ P2: No single source │ plan PDF export with │ Tennis/sports club │
│ of truth for padel │ market benchmarks │ owners adding padel │
│ market data — pricing, │ │ courts to existing │
│ utilization, density │ S3: Builder marketplace │ facilities in Germany │
│ are all fragmented │ with qualified lead │ │
│ │ matching (entrepreneurs │ SECONDARY: │
│ P3: Court builders │ who've already modeled │ Court builders/ │
│ waste time on │ positive ROI) │ suppliers needing │
│ unqualified leads │ │ qualified leads │
│ ├─────────────────────────┤ │
│ EXISTING ALTERNATIVES: │ 3. UNIQUE VALUE PROP │ FUTURE: │
│ • DIY spreadsheets │ │ Operating venue owners │
│ • €5-10K consultants │ "The only platform that │ wanting market │
│ • Padelfinder (leads │ helps you plan, fund, │ benchmarks │
│ only, no planning) │ and build a padel │ │
│ • Sportstaettenrechner │ facility with real │ │
│ (generic, not padel- │ market data — not │ │
│ specific) │ guesswork." │ │
│ • Builder sales reps │ │ │
│ (biased) │ 10-word: Plan your padel│ │
│ │ investment with data, │ │
│ │ not gut feel. │ │
├─────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────┤
│ 8. KEY METRICS │ 5. CHANNELS │ 6. REVENUE STREAMS │
│ │ │ │
│ THE ONE NUMBER: │ OWNED (today): │ NEAR-TERM: │
│ # of completed plans │ • SEO: free calculator, │ • Builder lead fees │
│ per month │ market map, city pages│ (€100-300/lead) │
│ (= demand signal, │ • Content: "Cost to │ • Business plan export │
│ lead gen input, │ build padel in DE" │ (€39-79/mo) │
│ data generation) │ articles │ │
│ │ │ MID-TERM: │
│ SUPPORTING: │ EARNED: │ • Builder subscriptions │
│ • Calculator → signup │ • Padel Facebook groups │ (€99-499/mo) │
│ conversion rate │ • LinkedIn padel │ • Financing lead gen │
│ • Plans → quote │ community │ (€200-500/lead) │
│ request rate │ • Industry press/ │ │
│ • Builder response rate │ associations (DPV) │ LONG-TERM: │
│ • Monthly site visitors │ │ • Operator subs │
│ │ PAID (later): │ (€79-199/mo/venue) │
│ │ • Google Ads on "padel │ • Data licensing │
│ │ court ROI" keywords │ • Enterprise/franchise │
│ │ • Trade show presence │ plans (€399-999/mo) │
│ │ (FSB Cologne) │ │
├─────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────┤
│ 7. COST STRUCTURE │ 9. UNFAIR ADVANTAGE │
│ │ │
│ FIXED: Hosting (~€50/mo), domain, scraping infra │ TODAY: │
│ VARIABLE: Playtomic API costs (if any), support │ • Domain expertise │
│ │ (padel + finance) │
│ 12-month runway at €0 revenue: ~€600-1,200 │ • Live product already │
│ (extremely capital-efficient — this is your edge) │ (60+ var planner) │
│ │ │
│ Note: Time is the main cost. As a solo founder, │ BUILDING TOWARD: │
│ your hours are the real investment — not cash. │ • Aggregated market │
│ │ data (Playtomic │
│ │ scraping → moat) │
│ │ • Network effects │
│ │ (more plans = better │
│ │ defaults = better │
│ │ plans) │
│ │ • Lender relationships │
│ │ (if banks recommend │
│ │ you, competitors │
│ │ can't replicate) │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────┘
Canvas Stress Test
| Block | Confidence | Risk | Validation Needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Segments | HIGH — Sportstaettenrechner proves 40K+ project starters exist | Low | Already validated by proxy |
| Problem | HIGH — you've lived it, competitors exist but serve it poorly | Low | Confirmed by market existence |
| UVP | MEDIUM — clear vs. spreadsheets, unclear vs. future competitors | Medium | Does the positioning resonate? Test landing page copy |
| Solution | HIGH — planner is live and functional | Low | Need usage data to confirm value |
| Channels | MEDIUM — SEO strategy clear but unproven for your domain | High | This is the biggest risk. Can you actually drive traffic? |
| Revenue | LOW — no paying customers yet | High | Must validate. Get 1 builder paying per-lead in next 2 weeks |
| Costs | HIGH — extremely lean, near-zero cash burn | Low | Non-issue |
| Key Metrics | MEDIUM — metric chosen but no baseline yet | Medium | Need 30 days of data to set targets |
| Unfair Advantage | LOW today, HIGH potential — data moat doesn't exist yet | Medium | Start scraping immediately to build the moat |
#1 assumption to kill first: "Builders will pay for leads from Padelnomics." If builders won't pay, the entire revenue model needs restructuring. Validate this in week 1, before anything else.
#2 assumption to kill: "SEO can drive meaningful traffic to a padel planning tool." If organic search volume is too low, you need to pivot to community/outbound distribution. Check keyword volumes this week.
2. Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas
Competing Factors
What does the padel entrepreneur consider when choosing how to plan their facility?
- Financial model depth — How many variables? Sensitivity analysis? IRR/MOIC?
- Market data accuracy — Real benchmarks vs. guesses vs. "industry averages"
- Speed to usable output — Minutes vs. weeks to get a plan you can act on
- Professional presentation — Can I show this to a bank/investor?
- Price — How much does this cost me? (Low score = expensive)
- Padel specificity — Is this built for padel or generic "sports facility"?
- Builder/supplier matching — Does it connect me with people who can build it?
- Ongoing value — Is there a reason to come back after I've made my plan?
- Objectivity/trust — Is the source unbiased? Or trying to sell me something?
- Hands-on support — Do I get human help or is it self-serve only?
Competitor Scoring (1 = low, 5 = high)
Factor │ DIY │ Hired │ Padel- │ Sportst.- │ Builder │ PADEL-
│ Spread- │ Consul- │ finder │ rechner │ Sales │ NOMICS
│ sheet │ tant │ │ │ Rep │
────────────────────────┼───────────┼────────────┼───────────┼───────────┼──────────┼────────
Financial model depth │ 2 │ 5 │ 0 │ 3 │ 1 │ 5
Market data accuracy │ 1 │ 3 │ 2 │ 2 │ 2 │ 4
Speed to usable output │ 1 │ 1 │ n/a │ 3 │ 4 │ 5
Professional output │ 1 │ 5 │ n/a │ 2 │ 1 │ 4
Price (5 = affordable) │ 5 │ 1 │ 5 │ 3 │ 5 │ 4
Padel specificity │ 3 │ 3 │ 4 │ 1 │ 5 │ 5
Builder matching │ 0 │ 1 │ 4 │ 4 │ n/a │ 3
Ongoing value │ 1 │ 0 │ 2 │ 1 │ 2 │ 4
Objectivity / trust │ 4 │ 3 │ 3 │ 3 │ 1 │ 5
Hands-on support │ 0 │ 5 │ 1 │ 2 │ 3 │ 1
Value Curve Insight
All competitors cluster in predictable ways. Consultants score high on depth and presentation but catastrophically low on speed and price. DIY spreadsheets are the inverse — cheap and flexible but slow and unprofessional. Padelfinder and Sportstaettenrechner serve builder matching but completely ignore the planning job. Builder sales reps are fast but biased.
Nobody offers the combination of: deep financial modeling + real market data + speed + professional output + padel-specific + affordable. That's the blue ocean.
Four Actions Framework
| Action | What | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ELIMINATE | Hands-on consulting/support (don't try to be a consultant) | You're one person. Consulting doesn't scale. Let the tool do the work. |
| ELIMINATE | Generic sports facility coverage (don't be Sportstaettenrechner) | Padel-only focus is a feature, not a limitation. Depth > breadth. |
| REDUCE | Builder matching complexity (start with simple lead forwarding, not a full marketplace) | Don't over-build the marketplace. Manual curation beats a complex matching algorithm at this stage. |
| RAISE | Market data accuracy (from "guesses" to "benchmarked against 500+ venues") | This is the moat. Nobody else has aggregated padel-specific data. Scraping Playtomic is the strategic investment. |
| RAISE | Speed to output (from weeks to minutes) | The planner already does this. Lean into it. "Plan in 15 minutes" is a killer differentiator vs. consultant or DIY. |
| RAISE | Professional output quality (bank-ready PDFs) | The social job. Make the export beautiful. This alone justifies the price. |
| RAISE | Objectivity and trust (methodology transparency, no conflict of interest) | You don't sell courts. You don't have a builder bias. Make this explicit in positioning. |
| CREATE | Market intelligence layer (utilization benchmarks, pricing data, competitive density) | Nobody has this for padel. This is the DaaS moat that turns a planning tool into an intelligence platform. |
| CREATE | Lifecycle continuity (plan → finance → build → operate) | Every competitor serves ONE stage. You serve the entire journey. This creates switching costs and extends LTV. |
| CREATE | Self-improving defaults (more users = better data = better defaults for next user) | Network effect. Every plan created makes the platform smarter. This compounds. |
One-Sentence Positioning
"Unlike consultants who charge €5K for a static PDF, and unlike Padelfinder which skips planning entirely, Padelnomics gives padel entrepreneurs a self-serve intelligence platform to plan, fund, and build their facility with real market data — in minutes, not months."
3. Wardley Map (Simplified)
Where to build vs. buy. What's commoditizing vs. what's still novel.
Genesis Custom Product Commodity
(novel) (bespoke) (off-shelf) (utility/API)
│ │ │ │
User Need ─────────┤ │ │ │
"Confident │ │ │ │
investment │ │ │ │
decision" │ │ │ │
│ │ │ │
Padel Market ─────■──────────── │ │ │
Intelligence │ ← BUILD THIS │ │ │
(utilization, │ (your moat) │ │ │
pricing, density) │ │ │ │
│ │ │ │
Padel-Specific ────┤────────■─── │ │ │
Financial Model │ │ │ │ │
(60+ var, IRR, │ ← BUILT │ │ │
DSCR, scenarios) │ (live) │ │ │
│ │ │ │
Business Plan ────┤────■──────── │ │ │
PDF Generator │ │ │ │ │
│ ← BUILD NEXT │ │ │
│ │ │ │
Builder Lead ────┤───■───────── │ │ │
Matching │ │ │ │ │
│ ← BUILD NEXT │ │ │
│ │ │ │
Web Scraping ────┤ │ ─────■─── │ │
Framework │ │ │ │ │
│ │ ← USE │ │
│ │ (Scrapy, │ │
│ │ Playwright) │ │
│ │ │ │
Financial Calc ────┤ │ ─────■─── │ │
Libraries │ │ │ │ │
│ │ ← USE │ │
│ │ │ │
Auth / Payments ───┤ │ │ ────────■ │
│ │ │ │ │
│ │ │ ← USE │
│ │ │ (Clerk, │
│ │ │ Stripe) │
│ │ │ │
Hosting ───────────┤ │ │ ─────────■ │
│ │ │ │ │
│ │ │ ← USE │
│ │ │ (Vercel)│
Strategic Reads
Build what's Genesis/Custom (left side) — that's your differentiation:
- Padel market intelligence (aggregated, padel-specific data from scraping) → #1 priority to build. Nobody has this. It's the moat.
- Padel-specific financial model → Already built. Your existing advantage.
- Business plan PDF generation → Build next. Custom for padel, bank-ready format.
- Builder lead matching → Build next. Manual first, systematize later.
Use what's Product/Commodity (right side) — don't reinvent:
- Web scraping frameworks (Scrapy, Playwright, Puppeteer) → commodity
- Charting/visualization libraries → commodity
- Auth (Clerk, Supabase Auth) → commodity
- Payments (Stripe) → commodity
- Hosting (Vercel, Railway) → commodity
- PDF generation libraries → product-stage
Key insight: Your entire technical moat lives in two components: the data aggregation pipeline (scraping + processing) and the padel-specific intelligence layer (what the data means). Everything else is assembled from off-the-shelf parts. This is correct for an indie hacker — don't build infrastructure, build intelligence.
Evolution watch: Financial calculators in general are moving toward commodity (many generic tools exist). But padel-specific calculators with real market data are still Genesis. Your window is 2-3 years before someone else builds this. Move fast on the data moat — it compounds over time and becomes impossible to replicate.
4. Demand-Side Sales — The Buying Timeline
How does a padel entrepreneur actually go from "hmm, padel is interesting" to "take my money"?
The Timeline
PASSIVE LOOKING ACTIVE LOOKING DECIDING CONSUMING
(3-12 months) (2-8 weeks) (1-4 weeks) (ongoing)
"Padel is booming. "OK, I'm serious. "I need to choose "Am I getting
I play twice a week. Let me figure out a planning tool, value from this?
I wonder if building the numbers. What find a builder, Is my plan on
courts would be a does it actually cost? and approach track? Do I need
good investment..." What's the ROI?" the bank." to adjust?"
↓ ↓ ↓ ↓
TRIGGER EVENT: TRIGGER EVENT: TRIGGER EVENT: TRIGGER EVENT:
• Played at packed • Found a property/site • Bank meeting • Construction
venue, thought "I • Partner said "let's scheduled starts
could do this" do this" • Lease deadline • Venue opens
• Read about padel • Saw competitor approaching • First month
boom in news building nearby • Budget confirmed of operations
• Friend opened a • Received inheritance/ • Competitor
club, doing well investment capital opens nearby
Padelnomics Presence at Each Phase
| Phase | What They Need | Where They Look | Padelnomics Play | Content/Feature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passive Looking | Recognition: "This is a real opportunity, not just a fantasy" | Google: "padel business opportunity," padel Facebook groups, LinkedIn, industry news | Be the authority they encounter. Thought leadership, market reports, social content | "State of Padel 2026" report (email-gated). Blog posts: "Is Now the Right Time to Invest in Padel?" LinkedIn articles sharing market data. |
| Active Looking | Education: "What are the real numbers? What will it actually cost?" | Google: "padel court cost," "padel court ROI," "padel business plan," comparison sites | Be the tool they find. SEO-optimized free calculator, cost breakdowns, city-specific pages | Free calculator at /calculator targeting "padel court ROI calculator." Article: "How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany in 2026?" City pages: /markets/berlin, /markets/munich |
| Deciding | Confidence: "This plan is solid. I can trust these numbers. My bank will take this seriously." | Direct product use, case studies, peer validation | Be the complete solution. Full planner, business plan export, builder matching, financing connections | Full planner with all 6 tabs. Business plan PDF export. "Used by X entrepreneurs" social proof. Builder quote flow. Methodology transparency page. |
| Consuming | Validation: "My plan is working. I'm on track. I'm not missing anything." | Their own analytics, market data, benchmarking | Be the ongoing intelligence source. Benchmarks, competitive radar, performance tracking | Operate dashboard with Playtomic-powered benchmarks. Revenue alerts. Competitive monitoring. (Future — this is the retention product.) |
The Critical Insight: You're Missing the Passive Phase
Right now Padelnomics only serves Active Looking and Deciding. There's nothing for the person who's 6 months away from being serious. But this person is your future customer, and the Passive phase is where brand loyalty forms.
Fix: Content marketing that names the struggle before they're ready to plan.
Three articles to write this month:
- "Is Padel Still a Good Investment in 2026? The Data Says..." (Passive Looking → captures people googling the question)
- "How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany?" (Active Looking → SEO keyword play, links to calculator)
- "What Banks Want to See in a Padel Business Plan" (Deciding → positions you as the expert, links to planner)
Each article ends with a CTA to the free calculator. The calculator captures their email. The email sequence nurtures them from Passive → Active → Deciding.
Demand-Side Pricing Validation
WHAT DOES FAILING AT THIS JOB COST THEM?
• Bad investment decision on €200K-2M project = €200K-2M at risk
• Hiring a consultant to build the business plan = €3,000-10,000
• Months of DIY spreadsheet time (100+ hours × €50/hr) = €5,000+
• Bank rejection due to weak business plan = project delayed 3-6 months
WHAT ARE THEY CURRENTLY SPENDING?
• Consultant: €5,000-10,000 (one-time)
• Sportstaettenrechner: €600-1,400/yr
• DIY: €5,000+ in time value
YOUR PRICE SHOULD FEEL LIKE A BARGAIN:
• €39-79/mo for business plan export → 4-10% of consultant cost ✓
• €99-249/mo for builder subscription → 1 closed deal = 100x+ ROI ✓
• €79-199/mo for operator benchmarks → one pricing optimization easily worth 10x ✓
All prices are easily justified on demand side. If anything, you're probably underpricing.
Consider: €99/mo entry (not €39). The customer risking €500K doesn't blink at €99/mo for
decision support. The lower price might actually signal "this isn't serious enough."
5. Crossing the Chasm — Beachhead Strategy
You don't need this framework yet (you're pre-chasm — still finding early adopters), but you need to plan for it now so you don't accidentally build for everyone and delight no one.
Your Beachhead: Pin 1
Segment: Tennis/sports club owners in Germany adding 2-4 outdoor padel courts to their existing facility.
Why this beachhead?
| Criterion | Score | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Hair on fire? | HIGH | They're seeing padel demand from members NOW. Competitors are adding courts. They're under pressure to act fast or lose members. |
| Small enough to dominate? | YES | ~500-1,000 tennis clubs in Germany are actively considering padel. Manageable for one person. |
| Members talk to each other? | YES | Tennis club owner associations, Deutscher Tennis Bund (DTB), regional sports federations. Strong word-of-mouth networks. |
| Willing to pay premium? | MEDIUM | Club budgets are real but not huge. €39-79/mo is accessible. They understand professional planning tools. |
| Reference for adjacent segments? | YES | A club owner who planned successfully with Padelnomics tells their industry peers, real estate developer friends, and the builder they used. |
Bowling Pin Sequence
PIN 1 (NOW):
Tennis/sports club owners in Germany adding outdoor padel courts
• Easiest to reach (associations, LinkedIn groups, trade shows)
• Smallest investment size (€50-200K typically)
• Fastest decision cycle (club board vote, not investor pitch)
• Already understand sports facility economics
↓ (reference: "My tennis club used this to plan our padel courts")
PIN 2 (MONTHS 6-12):
First-time padel facility entrepreneurs in Germany
• Larger investments (€200K-1M)
• Need financing help (connects to Finance stage)
• Triggered by seeing successful club conversions from Pin 1
↓ (reference: "I used this for my first facility, now expanding")
PIN 3 (MONTHS 12-18):
Multi-facility operators and real estate developers in DACH
• Largest investments (€500K-2M+)
• Enterprise pricing tier
• Need portfolio analytics (connects to Scale stage)
↓ (reference: "The industry standard for padel planning in Europe")
PIN 4 (MONTHS 18-24+):
Padel entrepreneurs across Europe (Spain, France, UK, Nordics, Benelux)
• Geographic expansion using same playbook
• Localized market data per country
• Data moat becomes pan-European — virtually unreplicable
↓
MAINSTREAM:
The default planning and intelligence platform for anyone
building padel courts anywhere in Europe.
Whole Product for Pin 1 (Tennis Club Owners)
What does a tennis club owner need to feel completely served?
CORE PRODUCT (what you build):
✅ Financial planner with club-specific defaults (existing facility, adding courts)
✅ Scenario comparison (2 courts vs. 4, outdoor vs. covered)
⬜ Business plan PDF they can present to their club board
MUST-HAVE COMPLEMENTS (orchestrate, don't build):
⬜ 2-3 builder quotes from verified suppliers
⬜ Financing options (leasing for club budgets)
⬜ Simple guide: "How to present this to your club board"
NICE-TO-HAVE (builds loyalty):
⬜ Template: club member survey ("Would you play padel?")
⬜ Case study: "How TC Musterstadt added 4 padel courts"
⬜ Basic market data: "X courts within 30km of your location"
= WHOLE PRODUCT for Pin 1
What you DON'T need for Pin 1: Full market intelligence dashboard, operator benchmarks, M&A tools, franchise features, AI advisor. Kill those from your mental roadmap for the next 6 months. They're Pin 3/4 features.
6. RICE Scoring — Feature Prioritization
Scoring every major feature from the 7-stage product vision. Reach = estimated quarterly users affected. Impact = core job centrality (3=massive, 2=high, 1=medium, 0.5=low). Confidence = evidence level. Effort = weeks of solo dev work.
Tier 1: Build Now (Top RICE)
| # | Feature | Reach | Impact | Conf. | Effort | RICE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public free calculator (no signup, shareable URL, SEO-indexed) | 500 | 3 | 90% | 1 wk | 1,350 | Plan |
| 2 | "Get Builder Quotes" CTA in planner results → manual lead forwarding | 100 | 3 | 80% | 0.5 wk | 480 | Build |
| 3 | Playtomic scraping pipeline (venues + availability, daily cron) | 300 | 2 | 70% | 2 wk | 210 | Explore |
| 4 | Open Tabs 1+2 of planner publicly (Assumptions + ROI Summary) | 400 | 2 | 80% | 0.5 wk | 1,280 | Plan |
| 5 | SEO content: "Cost to open padel hall in Germany" | 300 | 2 | 70% | 0.5 wk | 840 | Marketing |
Tier 2: Build Next (Weeks 3-8)
| # | Feature | Reach | Impact | Conf. | Effort | RICE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Padel Market Map (interactive, from scraped data) | 400 | 2 | 70% | 3 wk | 187 | Explore |
| 7 | Business Plan PDF export (bank-ready, auto-generated) | 100 | 3 | 80% | 3 wk | 80 | Plan |
| 8 | Builder directory page (simple profiles, contact flow) | 80 | 2 | 60% | 2 wk | 48 | Build |
| 9 | Programmatic SEO city pages (/markets/berlin, /markets/munich) | 300 | 1 | 60% | 2 wk | 90 | Explore |
| 10 | Email nurture sequence (calculator → planner → quote request) | 150 | 2 | 50% | 1 wk | 150 | Marketing |
Tier 3: Build Later (Months 3-6)
| # | Feature | Reach | Impact | Conf. | Effort | RICE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Location Scorer (0-100 score for any address) | 200 | 2 | 50% | 3 wk | 67 | Explore |
| 12 | Market-informed defaults (pre-fill planner with regional data) | 100 | 2 | 60% | 2 wk | 60 | Plan |
| 13 | Grant & subsidy database (Germany first) | 50 | 2 | 50% | 2 wk | 25 | Finance |
| 14 | Quarterly market report (State of Padel Q1 2026) | 200 | 1 | 60% | 2 wk | 60 | Explore |
| 15 | Quote management dashboard (status tracking for entrepreneurs) | 60 | 1 | 50% | 2 wk | 15 | Build |
Tier 4: Park (Months 6+, or validate demand first)
| # | Feature | Reach | Impact | Conf. | Effort | RICE | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Operator performance dashboard | 30 | 3 | 30% | 6 wk | 4.5 | Operate |
| 17 | Market benchmarking (vs. anonymized peers) | 30 | 2 | 30% | 4 wk | 4.5 | Operate |
| 18 | Pricing optimizer | 20 | 2 | 30% | 4 wk | 3 | Operate |
| 19 | Competitive radar / alerts | 40 | 1 | 30% | 3 wk | 4 | Operate |
| 20 | Expansion planner (multi-site) | 10 | 2 | 20% | 4 wk | 1 | Scale |
| 21 | M&A intelligence | 5 | 2 | 10% | 4 wk | 0.25 | Scale |
| 22 | AI scenario advisor | 50 | 1 | 30% | 4 wk | 3.75 | Plan |
| 23 | Franchise toolkit | 5 | 1 | 10% | 6 wk | 0.08 | Scale |
The Verdict
Your next 6 weeks in order:
| Week | Build | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Open Tabs 1+2 publicly (RICE: 1,280) + "Get Builder Quotes" CTA (RICE: 480) | Instant traffic unlock + first revenue test. Zero new features, just ungating + adding a button. |
| 1-2 | Public free calculator with shareable URLs (RICE: 1,350) | SEO flywheel starts. Every completed calculation is a potential backlink. |
| 2 | SEO article: "Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany 2026" (RICE: 840) | Quick content win, links to calculator, tests organic demand |
| 2-3 | Playtomic scraping pipeline (RICE: 210 but strategic value is 10x) | The moat-building starts. Even if RICE is "low," this is THE strategic investment. |
| 3-5 | Padel Market Map using scraped data (RICE: 187) | Visual, shareable, SEO goldmine. Every city gets a page. |
| 5-6 | Business Plan PDF export (RICE: 80, but revenue = high) | First premium feature. Directly monetizable at €39-79/mo. |
Everything in Tiers 3-4 gets parked. Don't even think about operator dashboards, AI advisors, or franchise tools until you have 50+ paying customers.
7. Impact Map — Revenue Focus
Goal: €3K MRR within 6 months (ramen profitability in DACH)
WHY? WHO? HOW? WHAT?
€3K MRR → Padel Complete a plan → • Public calculator (awareness)
in 6 months entrepreneurs and request quotes • Open planner tabs (conversion)
(DE/AT/CH) through Padelnomics • SEO content (traffic)
• Email capture + nurture
→ Court builders Subscribe to receive → • "Get Quotes" CTA after plan
(10-15 targets) qualified leads • Manual lead forwarding
• Builder partnership pitch
• Tiered subscriptions (month 3+)
→ Repeat visitors Return monthly for → • Market map updates
/ planners market intelligence • Monthly market snapshot email
• New city data pages
• Business plan export (paid)
Revenue Math to €3K MRR
| Revenue Source | Unit Economics | Volume Needed | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Builder lead fees | €150/lead avg | 10 leads/mo | Month 2-3 |
| Builder subscriptions | €199/mo avg | 3-5 builders | Month 3-6 |
| Business plan export | €49/mo avg | 15-30 subs | Month 4-6 |
| Total at month 6 | €2.5-4.5K MRR |
The most likely path: 3 builders at €199/mo (€597) + 10 leads at €150 (€1,500) + 15 plan subs at €49/mo (€735) = €2,832 MRR. That's ramen profitable.
Behavior Changes Required
| Actor | Current Behavior | Target Behavior | Biggest Barrier | Feature That Fixes It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entrepreneur | Googles "padel court cost," reads random articles, builds spreadsheet | Finds calculator → completes plan → requests quotes through Padelnomics | Doesn't know Padelnomics exists | SEO content + public calculator |
| Entrepreneur | Asks builder friends directly, skips financial planning | Uses planner BEFORE contacting builders, sends plan with quote request | "I don't need a plan, I just need a builder" | Position planner as prerequisite: "Builders take you more seriously with a financial model" |
| Builder | Gets leads from trade shows, Padelfinder, cold inbound | Subscribes to Padelnomics for qualified leads with financial context | "Why would I pay for leads?" | Free trial period, show lead quality difference (these leads have budgets and timelines) |
| Builder | Treats Padelnomics lead same as cold lead | Responds within 48 hours, provides detailed quote | Low urgency, no accountability | Track response times, show builders their metrics, eventually factor into rankings |
8. Pretotyping Plan — Validate Before Building
For each major unbuilt feature, the cheapest possible validation test.
Business Plan PDF Export (€39-79/mo)
Test: Fake Door
After someone completes a plan, show:
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📄 Export Bank-Ready Business Plan │
│ │
│ Professional PDF with: │
│ • Executive summary │
│ • Full financial projections │
│ • Market analysis for your location │
│ • Sensitivity analysis │
│ • Funding requirements │
│ │
│ [Download PDF — €49/mo] [One-time €299] │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
If they click → "Launching March 2026. Enter email for 30% early bird."
Track: click rate on export button, email conversion after click.
Success: 10%+ of completed plans click export, 30%+ of those leave email
Failure: <5% click → the PDF isn't the monetization path
Timeline: Add this button in 1 day, measure for 2 weeks
Location Scorer (0-100)
Test: Mechanical Turk
Landing page: "Enter your target address. Get a Padel Opportunity Score."
User enters address. You manually research:
- Population density (Google)
- Existing courts within 30km (Playtomic data you've scraped)
- Competition density
- Demographics
Email them a simple 1-page PDF score within 24 hours.
Success: 20+ people submit addresses in first week, 3+ ask "how much for more detail?"
Failure: <5 submissions → low demand for this specific tool
Timeline: Build form in 1 day, manually deliver for 2 weeks
Operator Benchmarking Dashboard
Test: One-Night Stand
Find 3-5 padel venue owners (LinkedIn, Facebook groups).
Offer: "I'll create a free competitive analysis of your venue vs. your market."
Manually pull their Playtomic data + nearby competitors.
Build a 1-page report showing:
- Their estimated utilization vs. area average
- Their pricing vs. competitors
- Number of courts within 30km and growth rate
Deliver via email. Ask: "If I updated this monthly for €99/mo, would you pay?"
Success: 3/5 say "yes" AND ask for the next update before you offer it
Failure: Polite thank-yous but no follow-up → nice-to-have, not must-have
Timeline: Find 5 owners in week 1, deliver reports in week 2
Builder Subscriptions
Test: Infiltrator
Don't build a subscription product. Instead:
1. Email 10 builders: "I run a padel planning platform. I have entrepreneurs
who've modeled positive ROI and want builder quotes. I'll send you qualified
leads for free for 3 months. Just confirm 48hr response time."
2. Send them real leads from planner users.
3. After month 1, ask: "You've received X leads. Y had budgets over €200K.
Would you pay €199/mo for continued access?"
Success: 3+ builders want to continue AND will pay
Failure: Builders don't respond to leads, or respond but won't pay
Timeline: Start sending leads immediately, conversion conversation at month 1-2
Market Reports
Test: Pinocchio + Infiltrator
1. Write "State of Padel in Germany — Q1 2026" (even with limited data,
use what you have from scraping + public sources + planner insights)
2. Gate behind email on your site
3. ALSO post on LinkedIn: "Published our first padel market report.
Key finding: [insert most interesting data point]. Full report: [link]"
4. ALSO email to 20 industry contacts (builders, associations, journalists)
Success: 200+ downloads in first month, 5+ people share it, 1+ media citation
Failure: <50 downloads despite promotion → content isn't compelling enough
Timeline: Write in 1 week, promote and measure for 4 weeks
Synthesis: The Strategic Narrative
Here's the story all these frameworks tell when combined:
You've built the hardest part (the 60+ variable financial planner). Most founders would still be planning. You have a live product that solves a real job. That's your edge.
But you've built a locked room. The planner sits behind a signup wall. Nobody can find it via Google. No free tools drive traffic. No content captures people in the Passive Looking phase. You've built a great Deciding-phase tool but have no pipeline feeding it.
The unlock is ungating + SEO + builder revenue:
- Ungate Tabs 1+2 + launch free calculator → traffic can now flow in
- Content → SEO articles + market map → captures Active and Passive Lookers
- Builder CTA → monetizes the traffic that already exists through the planner → first revenue
- Scraping → builds the data moat that turns a calculator into an intelligence platform → long-term defensibility
- PDF export → premium feature that monetizes the entrepreneur directly → second revenue stream
The beachhead is German tennis clubs adding padel courts. Dominate this niche. Make it so every Tennisverein considering padel hears "use Padelnomics first." Then expand outward.
The moat is the data. Every plan created generates inputs. Every scraped venue generates benchmarks. Every builder quote generates pricing intelligence. The more people use the platform, the more valuable it becomes for the next person. This flywheel takes 6-12 months to spin up, but once it does, it's nearly impossible to replicate.
Revenue trajectory:
- Month 1-2: €0-500/mo (builder lead fees, testing)
- Month 3-4: €500-1,500/mo (builder subs + lead fees + first paid plan exports)
- Month 5-6: €1,500-3,000/mo (ramen profitable — data moat accelerating)
- Month 7-12: €3,000-8,000/mo (operator subs begin, geographic expansion starts)
- Month 12-24: €8,000-20,000/mo (platform effects, multiple revenue streams compounding)
Decision Log
| Decision | Rationale | Revisit When |
|---|---|---|
| Beachhead = German tennis clubs, not greenfield entrepreneurs | Smaller deals but faster cycle, strong word-of-mouth networks, easier to reach via associations | If tennis club conversion rate <2% after 3 months |
| Builder revenue before entrepreneur revenue | Builders pay more per unit, need less volume, validate the marketplace model | If builders refuse to pay after free trial ends |
| Scrape Playtomic before building premium features | Data moat compounds over time — every day you don't scrape is data you'll never have | If Playtomic blocks scraping and you need a new data strategy |
| Don't build operator dashboard for 6+ months | Low reach, low confidence, high effort (RICE = 4.5 vs 1,350 for free calculator) | If 5+ venue owners spontaneously ask for benchmarking |
| Price at €49-99/mo entry, not €19-29/mo | Demand-side pricing says €49 is 1% of consultant cost. Low price signals low quality for a €200K+ decision. | If conversion rate is <1% at €49, test €29 |
| Content-first distribution, paid ads later | Zero budget, SEO compounds, content establishes authority | If organic traffic <500/mo after 3 months of content |
What to Do Monday Morning
Literally your to-do list for this week, in priority order:
-
Ungate Tabs 1+2 of the planner. Make Assumptions + ROI Summary viewable without signup. Keep the other 4 tabs gated. (2 hours)
-
Add "Get Builder Quotes" button in the planner results. When clicked, capture: name, email, location, court count, budget range, timeline. You manually forward these to builders. (3 hours)
-
Email 5 builders with the free partnership pitch: "I send you qualified leads who've already modeled positive ROI. No cost for 3 months. Just respond within 48 hours." (1 hour)
-
Check keyword volumes for "padel court kosten," "padel court ROI rechner," "padel halle business plan," "padel court bauen kosten" using free tools (Google Keyword Planner, Ubersuggest). Validate SEO assumption. (1 hour)
-
Start writing "How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany in 2026?" — publish this week, link to calculator at the end. (4 hours)
Everything else can wait. These 5 tasks test your two biggest assumptions (builders will pay + SEO can drive traffic) while costing zero dollars and one week of effort.