feat(sql+templates): market_score v3 — log density + count gate
Fixes ranking inversion where Germany (1/100k courts) outscored Spain
(36/100k). Root causes: population/income were 55% of max before any
padel signal, density ceiling saturated 73% of cities, small-town
inflation (1 venue / 5k pop = 20/100k = full marks), and the saturation
discount actively penalised mature markets.
SQL (city_market_profile.sql):
- Supply development 40pts: log-scaled density LN(d+1)/LN(21) × count
gate min(1, count/5). Ceiling 20/100k. Count gate kills small-town
inflation without hard cutoffs (1 venue = 20%, 5+ = 100%).
- Demand evidence 25pts: occupancy if available; 40% density proxy
otherwise. Separated from supply to avoid double-counting.
- Addressable market 15pts: population as context, not maturity.
- Economic context 10pts: income PPS (flat per country, low signal).
- Data quality 10pts.
- Removed saturation discount. High density = maturity.
Verified spot-check scores:
Málaga (46v, 7.77/100k): 70.1 [was 98.9]
Barcelona (104v, 6.17/100k): 67.4 [was 100.0]
Amsterdam (24v, 3.24/100k): 58.4 [was 93.7]
Bernau bei Berlin (2v, 5.74/100k): 43.9 [was 92.7]
Berlin (20v, 0.55/100k): 42.2 [was 74.1]
London (66v, 0.74/100k): 44.1 [was 75.5]
Templates (city-cost-de, country-overview, city-pricing):
- Color coding: green >= 55 (was 65), amber >= 35 (was 40)
- Intro/FAQ tiers: strong >= 55 (was 70), mid >= 35 (was 45)
- Opportunity interplay: market_score < 40 (was < 50) for white-space
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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