merge worktree-email-templates → master
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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research/state-of-padel-q1-2026-research.md
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research/state-of-padel-q1-2026-research.md
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# State of Padel Q1 2026 — Research Brief
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> Compiled 2026-02-25 from FIP World Padel Reports 2024 + 2025 (PDF text extraction),
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> padelfip.com press releases, and Premier Padel circuit announcements.
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>
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> **Raw source files:**
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> - FIP 2024 PDF text: `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` (11,049 lines)
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> - FIP 2025 PDF text: `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` (28,135 lines)
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> - FIP 2024 PDF: `https://www.padelfip.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/WORLD_PADEL_REPORT_2024_FIP-1.pdf`
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> - FIP 2025 PDF: `https://www.padelfip.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/FIP-WPR-2025_DIGITAL.pdf`
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---
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## 1. Global Player Population
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| Metric | End 2023 (FIP 2024 report) | Mid/Oct 2025 (FIP 2025 report) | Growth |
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|--------|---------------------------|-------------------------------|--------|
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| Amateur players worldwide (est.) | ~25–30 million | **>35 million** | — |
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| Federated / licensed players | **600,000** | **850,000** | +42% |
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| Players playing ≥1×/week | >50% of amateurs | >50% of amateurs | — |
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| Gender split | ~60% M / 40% F | ~60% M / 40% F | — |
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| Pro-ranked players | ~4,874 | **11,125** | +128% |
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| Junior-ranked players | ~1,209 | **4,219** | +249% |
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**Player distribution by continent (FIP 2025 report):**
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| Continent | Share |
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|-----------|-------|
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| Europe | 61.3% |
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| South America | 19.0% |
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| Central & North America | 7.7% |
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| Asia | 6.8% |
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| Africa | 4.9% |
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| Oceania | ~0.3% |
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*Source: FIP World Padel Report 2025, `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt`*
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---
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## 2. Courts Worldwide
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| Metric | Early 2024 (FIP 2024) | June 2025 (FIP 2025) | Growth |
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|--------|----------------------|---------------------|--------|
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| **Total courts worldwide** | **60,000** (milestone) | **77,355** | +29% |
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| Europe | 42,600 (70%) | 51,000+ (66%) | +20% |
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| South America | ~14,850 | ~14,100 (18%) | — |
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| Asia | ~3,200 | ~4,633 (6%) | +45% |
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| Central & North America | ~2,000 | ~3,976 (5%) | +99% |
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| Africa | ~2,300 | ~3,389 (4%) | +47% |
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| Oceania | ~50 | ~110 | +120% |
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| Court-to-club ratio (global avg) | 3.2 | — | — |
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**3-year context (from FIP 2024 report):** +240% court growth globally since 2021.
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Excluding Spain, European countries grew courts 6× in the same period.
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*Source: FIP 2024 report pp. key facts section; FIP 2025 report country-breakdown section. `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` lines ~380–414; `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` court section.*
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---
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## 3. Top Countries by Court Count
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### 2025 (June 2025 data, FIP 2025 report)
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| Rank | Country | Courts |
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|------|---------|--------|
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| 1 | Spain | 17,300 |
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| 2 | Italy | 10,220 |
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| 3 | Sweden | 4,220 |
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| 4 | Argentina | 4,220 |
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| 5 | France | 4,000 |
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| 6 | Netherlands | 3,500+ |
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| 7 | Belgium | 2,150 |
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| 8 | Mexico | 2,000+ |
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| 9 | Chile | ~2,000 |
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| 10 | Denmark | ~1,560 |
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| 11 | Portugal | 1,560 |
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| 12 | Saudi Arabia | 1,127–1,575 |
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### 2024 (early 2024 data, FIP 2024 report)
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| Country | Courts |
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|---------|--------|
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| Spain | 16,000+ |
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| Argentina | ~9,053 |
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| Sweden | ~4,200 |
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| France | ~2,300 |
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| Netherlands | ~2,420 |
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*Source: FIP 2025 top-15 courts chart, `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` ~lines 390–412. FIP 2024 country pages, `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt`.*
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---
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## 4. Clubs Worldwide
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| Metric | FIP 2024 report | FIP 2025 report |
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|--------|----------------|----------------|
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| Total clubs worldwide | ~19,800 | **24,627+** |
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| FIP-affiliated clubs | 5,820 (+48% vs 2022's 3,923) | 8,612 (managing 30,000+ courts) |
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| Countries / nations playing padel | 130 + 12 territories | **150 + 20 territories** |
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*Source: `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` global summary; `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` headline stats.*
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---
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## 5. FIP Member Federations
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| Metric | FIP 2024 | FIP 2025 |
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|--------|---------|---------|
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| Total FIP member federations | **71** (30 joined in prior 3 years) | **87** |
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| European | 39 | 50 |
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| Asian | 15 | — |
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| American | 12 | — |
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| African | 3 | — |
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| Oceanian | 2 | — |
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*Source: `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` line 3573; `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` federation overview.*
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---
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## 6. Country-Level Licensed (Federated) Players
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### From FIP 2025 report (data as of Oct 2025)
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| Country | Licensed Players | Gender split | Amateur est. | Courts | Clubs |
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|---------|-----------------|-------------|-------------|--------|-------|
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| Spain | **109,182** | 39,851W + 69,331M | 6,200,000+ | 17,300+ | 4,570+ |
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| Italy | **86,301** | 23,257W + 61,837M | 2,200,000 | 10,220 | 3,795 |
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| France | **250,000** | via FFT* | 800,000 | 4,000 | 2,917 |
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| Sweden | **6,118** | 1,900W + 4,218M | 700,000 | 4,220 | 1,202 |
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*France figure = FFT (Fédération Française de Tennis) licences covering padel. 100,000 are padel-only; 150,000 are multi-racket licences.*
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### From FIP 2024 report (data as of end 2023 / April 2024)
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| Country | Licensed Players | Amateur est. |
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|---------|-----------------|-------------|
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| Spain | **101,326** | 5,500,000+ |
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| France | **113,006** (FFT) | 1,000,000 |
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| Argentina | **73,741** | 1,500,000 |
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| Paraguay | 15,000 | 500,000 |
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*Source: `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` Spain ~line 25571, Italy ~line 19606, France ~line 17550, Sweden ~line 26084. `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` Argentina ~line 4125, France ~line 4488.*
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---
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## 7. Professional Circuit — Scale & Growth
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### FIP-Organized Tournament Volume
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| Year | Total FIP tournaments | Countries hosting | Unique players |
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|------|-----------------------|-------------------|----------------|
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| 2024 (full year) | **182** | — | — |
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| H1 2024 | 71 | 21 | 2,419 (65 nationalities) |
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| H1 2025 | **132** (+86%) | **38** (+81%) | **3,266** (+35%, 91 nationalities) |
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**H1 2025 breakdown:** 12 Premier Padel + 75 CUPRA FIP Tour + 45 FIP Promises
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### Digital reach (H1 2025)
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- 1.85 million unique website users (+19% vs H1 2024)
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- 30+ million page views (+33%)
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- 680,000 social followers (+23%)
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*Source: padelfip.com press release July 2025, plain HTML.*
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---
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## 8. Premier Padel Prize Pools
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### Per-tournament prize money by tier
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| Tier | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
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|------|------|------|------|
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| Major | €525,000 | €525,000 | Not confirmed |
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| P1 | €250,000 | **€300,000** | Not confirmed |
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| P2 | — | €150,000 | **€250,000** (+67%) |
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| Year-end Finals | — | — | **€600,000 total** |
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**2024 Finals breakdown (Barcelona, Dec 2024):**
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Winner per player €52,500 · Finalist €30,000 · 3rd €21,000 · 4th €13,500 · QF €7,688 · Alternate €2,250
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**2025 update:** Women's P2 raised a further €10,000 (announced March 2025, padelfip.com).
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> **Note on 2024 Major/P1 amounts:** Not confirmed in any accessible source.
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> The 2024 P2 increase (€150k → €250k) was confirmed from Genova P2 announcement.
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> Major/P1 for 2024 require one more manual lookup on padelfip.com.
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*Source: padelfip.com press releases 2022, 2023, 2024 — plain HTML, fully accessible.
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2024 Finals: `padelfip.com/2024/10/countdown-to-the-qatar-airways-premier-padel-finals...`*
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---
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## 9. Broadcast & Viewership
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### 2022 (most granular year — from FIP press release)
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| Metric | Value |
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|--------|-------|
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| YouTube views (season) | 22 million |
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| Live stream viewers | 17 million |
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| Watch time | 6 million hours |
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| Household broadcast reach | 150 million+ |
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| Territories | 180+ |
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| Multi-year broadcast deals | 11 (ESPN, beIN Sports, Canal+, RTVE, etc.) |
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| Live attendance | 200,000+ across 8 events |
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### H1 2024
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| Metric | Value |
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|--------|-------|
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| Broadcast territories | 242 (6 continents) |
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| Live attendance | **350,000+** (14 tournaments, 12 countries) |
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| Social media followers | ~2M total; 4M on Instagram |
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| Broadcast countries (full year) | 187 |
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> 2024 viewership ratings / unique viewer counts **not published** in any accessible source.
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> The 2022 figures remain the most granular available.
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*Source: padelfip.com 2022 year-end release; padelfip.com August 2024 US expansion announcement.*
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---
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## 10. World Padel Tour (WPT)
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WPT operated prior to the WPT/Premier Padel merger (completed May 2024).
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`worldpadeltour.com` is effectively defunct — `ERR_TLS_CERT_ALTNAME_INVALID` on all fetches, domain being wound down. No aggregate 2023 WPT prize pool figure was recoverable from any accessible source.
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The FIP 2024 report notes: from 2019 (birth of Cupra FIP Tour) through April 2024, **355 tournaments** were played across **36 different nations** on the FIP circuit.
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---
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## 11. What Padelnomics DuckDB Adds
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The FIP data is country-level. The Padelnomics pipeline has city-level granularity:
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```sql
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-- Venue counts per country (OSM + Playtomic deduplicated)
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SELECT country_code, COUNT(*) as venues
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FROM serving.dim_venues
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GROUP BY country_code ORDER BY venues DESC;
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-- City-level market scores + venue density
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SELECT city_name, country_code, market_score, venue_count, population
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FROM serving.city_market_profile
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ORDER BY market_score DESC LIMIT 50;
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```
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The delta between FIP's 17,300 courts in Spain and Padelnomics-tracked venues is meaningful for the article — it illustrates the data methodology gap (FIP = self-reported by federations; Padelnomics = independently scraped OSM + Playtomic).
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---
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## 12. Data Source Assessment
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| Source | Available | Format | Notes |
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|--------|-----------|--------|-------|
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| FIP 2024 PDF | **Free** | PDF → parseable text | `/tmp/fip_2024_text.txt` — layout scrambles extraction slightly |
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| FIP 2025 PDF | **Free** | PDF → parseable text | `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` — same |
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| padelfip.com press releases | **Free** | Plain HTML | Clean URL pattern `/YYYY/MM/slug/`. Best source for prize pools, circuit stats |
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| premierpadel.com | Partial | Next.js SPA | Requires headless browser; static fetch returns empty shell |
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| Playtomic / PwC Global Padel Report 2025 | **Gated** | HubSpot form → PDF | 45-page report; only teaser stat (70k courts by 2026) visible on landing page |
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| Statista padel topic | **Paywalled** | — | |
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| Market research firms (Mordor, GVR, etc.) | **Paywalled** | — | Typical quoted figures: ~$1.5–2B market, 15–20% CAGR through 2030 |
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| worldpadeltour.com | **Dead** | — | Invalid TLS cert post-merger |
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---
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## 13. Data Still Needed Before Writing Session
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| Gap | How to fill |
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|-----|------------|
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| Premier Padel Major/P1 prize pools for 2024 | 1 manual lookup: search padelfip.com for "2024 Premier Padel season announcement" |
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| DuckDB pipeline venue counts | Run the 2 SQL queries above |
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| FIP 2025 per-country data (all 87 federations) | `/tmp/fip_2025_text.txt` has the full text — grep by country name |
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