docs: add research notes and scratch files

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

research/README.md

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+# Research Index
+
+All research documents in this directory. Most recent / most relevant listed first.
+
+| File | Topic | Date | Status |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `padel-hall-economics.md` | Court construction costs, operator P&L, supplier margins, buyer segmentation | Feb 2026 | Current |
+| `competitor_pricing.md` | Competitor directory, pricing models, revenue archetypes (20+ platforms) | Feb 2026 | Current |
+| `market-research-padel-costs-2026.md` | Per-city court hire rates, rent, electricity, staff costs (DE/UK/US) | Feb 2026 | Current |
+| `state-of-padel-q1-2026/` | FIP reports 2024+2025, Playtomic Global Padel Report 2025 | Q1 2026 | Current |
+| `kfw/` | KfW loan documents and business plan templates | Feb 2026 | Current |
+| `additional-supply-side-idea.md` | Supplier-side product idea notes | Feb 2026 | Draft |
+| `padelnomics-master-strategy.md` | Original strategy doc | 2025 | **Superseded** — use MARKETING.md + PROJECT.md |
+| `PLAN.md` | Original roadmap | 2025 | **Superseded** |
+| `padel-daas-vision-plan.md` | Data-as-a-service vision | 2025 | **Superseded** |
+| `padel_daas_vision.md` | DaaS vision (older) | 2025 | **Superseded** |
+| `PadelDirectory.md` | Directory concept | 2025 | **Superseded** |
+| `padelnomics-strategy-stack.md` | Strategy stack | 2025 | **Superseded** |
+| `padelnomics_erp_for_padel_entrepreneurs_customer_journey.md` | Customer journey | 2025 | **Superseded** |
+| `padelnomics-jtbd-analysis.md` | JTBD analysis | 2025 | Background context only |
+| `padelnomics_lead_platform_discussion_summary.md` | Lead platform discussion | 2025 | Background context only |
+| `product_ideas.md` | Product ideas | 2025 | Background context only |
+| `sportstaettenrechner_quotes_2022.md` | Sportstaettenrechner 2022 lead volume data | 2022 | Historical data |
+
+## Key facts (quick reference)
+
+**Construction costs:**
+- 1 outdoor court (turnkey): €33,000–€80,000
+- 4 outdoor courts (commercial): €200,000–€350,000
+- 4-court indoor hall: €700,000–€1,200,000
+- 6-court indoor hall: €1,000,000–€1,700,000
+
+**Operator revenue:**
+- Germany: €4,000/court/month GMV (Playtomic 2025)
+- UK: €9,700/court/month GMV
+- 4-court outdoor: ~€224,000/year gross (padel-court.de)
+- EBITDA mature indoor club: 50–57%
+
+**Market growth:**
+- 7,187 new courts built globally in 2024
+- Germany: 507 courts (2024) → 827 (2025), +63% YoY
+- European construction market: ~€194M/year (2024)

research/additional-supply-side-idea.md

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+# Supply-Side Lead Gen: Flächen für Padel-Gründer vermitteln
+
+*padelnomics.io — neue Revenue-Linie*
+
+---
+
+## Die Idee in einem Satz
+
+Padelnomics wird zur **Zillow für Padel-Gewerbeimmobilien**: Wir vermitteln nicht nur Padel-Gründer an Court-Lieferanten (downstream), sondern auch an Hallenbetreiber, Gewerbemakler und Wirtschaftsförderungen, die Flächen anbieten (upstream). Zwei Seiten, ein Funnel, derselbe Entrepreneur als Nutzer.
+
+---
+
+## Warum das funktioniert
+
+**Das Problem existiert.** Jeder Padel-Gründer braucht *zuerst* eine Halle, bevor er Courts bestellt. Aktuell ist die Suche komplett manuell: ImmoScout durchforsten, Makler anrufen, Wirtschaftsförderungen einzeln anschreiben. Wir haben den Schmerz beim Göttingen/Oldenburg-Scan selbst erlebt.
+
+**Wir haben die Demand-Seite bereits.** Der Padel Court Planner fängt Gründer mit konkreten Projektdaten ab: Region, Budget, Courtanzahl, Timeline. Das sind hochqualifizierte Leads für jeden, der Gewerbeflächen vermieten will — deutlich besser als ein random ImmoScout-Inserat.
+
+**Datenmoat durch Kuration.** ImmoScout taggt keine "8m+ Deckenhöhe, 800+ qm, geeignet für Padel." Wir schon. Jeder Market Scan baut eine proprietäre Datenbank padel-geeigneter Flächen auf, die niemand sonst hat.
+
+**Zillow-Analogie:** Zillow verdient, indem Makler für Buyer-Leads zahlen. Unsere Version: Hallenbetreiber / Makler / Wirtschaftsförderungen zahlen für qualifizierte Mieter-Leads — Padel-Gründer mit Budget, Specs und Timeline.
+
+---
+
+## Chicken-and-Egg lösen
+
+Das klassische Problem zweiseitiger Marktplätze umgehen wir, weil:
+
+1. **Demand-Seite existiert organisch** — Calculator-Traffic liefert Gründer-Leads ohne Akquise
+2. **Supply-Seite starten wir kuratiert** — eigene Market Scans (wie Göttingen/Oldenburg) als initialer Bestand, bevor Anbieter selbst listen
+3. **Wirtschaftsförderungen als Hebel** — quasi-öffentliche Stellen, die *wollen*, dass Unternehmer in ihre Stadt kommen; niedrige Hürde für Kooperation
+
+---
+
+## Umsetzung: Kein neues Produkt, sondern Funnel-Erweiterung
+
+Nicht als separates Produkt bauen. Stattdessen:
+
+1. **"Standort-Finder" im bestehenden Funnel** — nach dem Calculator ("Ich will in Niedersachsen bauen") kuratierte Flächen zeigen + Kontaktvermittlung anbieten
+2. **Zweite Lead-Kategorie im Marketplace** — neben Court-Supplier-Leads jetzt auch Space-Provider-Leads, gleicher Entrepreneur-Traffic
+3. **Langfristig: Anbieter listen selbst** — Gewerbemakler und Wirtschaftsförderungen pflegen Flächen direkt auf padelnomics, wir matchen automatisch
+
+---
+
+## Revenue-Modell
+
+| Stream | Mechanik | Preis-Range |
+|---|---|---|
+| Lead-Vermittlung an Vermieter | Pro qualifiziertem Mieter-Lead | €50–200/Lead |
+| Featured Listings (Flächen) | Sichtbarkeits-Upgrades à la RemoteOK | €29–199/mo |
+| Wirtschaftsförderung-Partnerschaften | Flatrate für Lead-Weiterleitung in ihre Region | €500–1.500/Jahr |
+| Site Selection Reports | Deep-Dive für eine spezifische Stadt (bereits geplant als High-Ticket) | €499–999 |
+
+---
+
+## Outreach-Strategie: Personalisierte Emails via Resend API
+
+### Warum kein Broadcast / Audiences
+
+- **GDPR + UWG §7:** Unaufgeforderte Werbe-Emails an deutsche B2B-Kontakte ohne Einwilligung = rechtlich riskant. Wirtschaftsförderungen sind quasi-öffentlich — schlechter erster Eindruck.
+- **Zu kleine Liste für Broadcast:** ~100–200 Targets (Wirtschaftsförderungen, Makler, Hallenbetreiber in 20–30 Städten). Bei der Größe schlägt Personalisierung jede Massenmail.
+- **Homogene Mails = Spam-Feeling:** "Wir vermitteln Padel-Gründer" klingt generisch. "Göttingen hat 0 Indoor-Courts bei 131.000 Einwohnern" sitzt.
+
+### Stattdessen: API-Sends mit Per-Recipient-Personalisierung
+
+**Setup:**
+1. Ziel-Spreadsheet bauen (Airtable oder Google Sheets):
+   - Stadt, Unternehmen, Kontakt-Email, Ansprechpartner (wenn bekannt)
+   - Anzahl Indoor-Padel-Courts in der Stadt (0 / wenige / viele)
+   - Einwohnerzahl
+   - Spezifischer Hook ("Move On Göttingen hat Bürger-Anfragen für Padel")
+   - Quelle (ImmoScout, Website, Makler-Verzeichnis)
+
+2. Email-Template mit Merge-Fields:
+   - `{{stadt}}`, `{{court_count}}`, `{{einwohner}}`, `{{hook}}`
+
+3. Senden via Resend API (Node-Script oder Python):
+   - Jede Email wirkt 1:1 persönlich
+   - Tracking: Opens, Replies
+   - Reply-to: persönliche padelnomics-Adresse
+
+**Beispiel-Personalisierung:**
+
+| Stadt | Hook |
+|---|---|
+| Göttingen | "0 Indoor-Courts, 131K Einwohner, Uni-Stadt, Move-On-Initiative fordert Padel" |
+| Oldenburg | "Nur 10 Courts für 175K Einwohner, ZwillisPadel sucht aktiv neue Standorte" |
+| Braunschweig | "Zweitgrößte Stadt Niedersachsens, X Courts für 250K Einwohner" |
+
+### Wann Resend Audiences DOCH sinnvoll wird
+
+Sobald Kontakte **opt-in** sind (sie antworten, zeigen Interesse, tragen sich ein):
+→ Audience anlegen und regelmäßig Updates senden:
+- "3 neue Padel-Gründer suchen Flächen in Niedersachsen diesen Monat"
+- "Neuer Marktbericht: Padel-Nachfrage in Ihrer Region"
+- Quartals-Newsletter mit Marktdaten
+
+Das ist dann ein legitimer Newsletter an engagierte Kontakte — kein Cold Outreach.
+
+---
+
+## Nächste Schritte
+
+1. **Lokhalle/GWG Göttingen** als ersten manuellen Test senden (Email ist drafted)
+2. **Target-Liste für 10 Städte** bauen (Göttingen, Oldenburg, Braunschweig, Hannover, Osnabrück, ...)
+3. **Resend API-Script** schreiben (Personalisierung + Open-Tracking)
+4. **Erste 20 Emails** senden, Response-Rate messen
+5. **Bei Traction:** "Standort-Finder"-Feature auf padelnomics.io scopen

research/padel-hall-economics.md

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+# Padel Hall Economics — Construction Costs & Supplier Revenue
+
+**Compiled: February 2026**
+**Purpose:** Ground-truth numbers for pricing decisions, supplier value proposition, and lead marketplace calibration.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Court Construction Costs — Component Breakdown
+
+Per double court (10m × 20m playing surface), supply + installation, outdoor:
+
+| Component | Range (EUR) |
+|---|---|
+| Steel frame / structure | €8,000–€12,000 |
+| Panoramic glass walls | €9,500–€16,000 |
+| Artificial turf (200 sqm) | €4,500–€8,000 |
+| LED sports lighting | €4,000–€7,000 |
+| Foundation & site prep | €5,000–€10,000 |
+| Fencing / mesh panels | €2,000–€4,000 |
+| **Total outdoor double court** | **€33,000–€57,000** |
+
+Sources: `market-research-padel-costs-2026.md` §12 (cross-checked against Fortune Padel, MejorSet, WePadel 2025, LTA construction guidance)
+
+**Turnkey quotes from real operators:**
+- padel-court.de (German broker): **€27,000–€32,000/court** indoor, **€28,000–€34,000/court** outdoor (supply + installation, ex-foundation)
+- padelplatz-kosten.de calculator output: **€45,000–€110,000+** per court (includes all configurations from basic to full panoramic with roofing)
+- padel-konzept.de / Padel Solution NL: **€44,000–€93,000** outdoor, **€53,000–€100,000** indoor (recycled range across all city pages — likely Padel Solution list prices)
+- Reform Sports (Turkey): **$39,800–$45,300** per court (≈ €37,800–€43,000) — supply only, no installation
+
+**Supply-only ex-works (China):** ~€4,000 structure per court. European-assembled supply-only: ~€10,000.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Total Facility CAPEX by Project Type
+
+| Facility type | Courts | EUR range | Notes |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Single outdoor court | 1 | €33,000–€80,000 | Lower = no foundation; upper = full site prep + lighting |
+| Small outdoor club | 2–3 | €80,000–€180,000 | Minimum viable commercial project |
+| Mid outdoor club | 4 | €200,000–€350,000 | Typical sports club / commercial entry |
+| Small indoor hall | 4 | €700,000–€1,200,000 | Courts + steel hall + HVAC + fit-out |
+| Mid indoor hall | 6 | €1,000,000–€1,700,000 | Realistic midpoint ~€1.2–1.5M |
+| Large indoor center | 8–12 | €1,500,000–€3,000,000+ | Premium brands (Padel Haus, Epic Padel) |
+
+**6-court indoor benchmark** (from `scratch/padel-hall-guide.md`):
+- Building shell: €400,000–€800,000
+- Courts (6 × ~€30,000): €180,000–€300,000
+- HVAC: €50,000–€120,000
+- Lighting: €30,000–€60,000
+- Fit-out (reception, bar, WC): €80,000–€150,000
+- Permits / legal / architect: €40,000–€80,000
+- **Total: €780,000–€1,510,000** (realistic: €1.0–1.4M)
+
+**padel-court.de real-world 4-court scenarios (2021, still widely cited):**
+- Sports club (Verein), 4 outdoor courts: €258,000 gross → **€167,700 net** after 35% federation grant
+- Commercial operator, 4 outdoor courts: **€258,000 total** (no grant)
+
+Source: https://padel-court.de/wie-viel-kann-man-mit-einem-padelcourt-verdienen/
+
+---
+
+## 3. Buyer Segmentation
+
+**Primary buyer types** (from padel-court.de FAQ, Padelcreations buyer personas, Playtomic 2025):
+
+| Buyer type | Typical project | CapEx range | Grant eligibility |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Existing tennis / sports club | 2–4 courts outdoor | €80,000–€260,000 | Yes (Landessportbund, KfW 150) |
+| Commercial entrepreneur / investor | 4–6 courts | €200,000–€700,000 | Limited |
+| Hotel / resort / hospitality | 2–4 courts | €100,000–€400,000 | No |
+| Corporate (team-building venue) | 1–2 courts | €50,000–€150,000 | No |
+| Franchise / chain operator | 6–16 courts indoor | €1M–€5M+ | No |
+| Municipality / public facility | 2–4 courts | €100,000–€350,000 | Yes (various public sports funds) |
+
+**Confirmed real projects (Germany, from padel-court.de European stats 2025):**
+- Hanse Padel Hamburg: 16 courts
+- Padel FC Berlin: 9 courts
+- Most new German projects: 4–8 courts
+
+**Smallest viable project:** 2 courts (padel-court.de explicitly says "at least two courts is economically more sensible than one")
+
+**Single-court buyers** do exist (corporate installs, hotel add-ons, indoor sports hall add-ons) but are not the primary addressable market for a B2B lead marketplace targeting full-service suppliers.
+
+### Answer to the €200K+ question
+
+**Not universal, but accurate for the core addressable market:**
+
+- Single court (1 court, basic outdoor): €33,000–€80,000 → **below €100K threshold**
+- 2-court outdoor club: €80,000–€180,000 → **€100K–€200K range**
+- 4-court outdoor commercial: **€200,000–€350,000** ✓ over €200K
+- Any indoor project: **€700,000–€3,000,000+** ✓ well over €200K
+
+The majority of projects that full-service court manufacturers and turnkey builders target are 4+ court installations — placing them firmly in the €200K–€1M+ range. However, a meaningful segment (sports clubs with grants, single-court hospitality adds) operates in the €50K–€200K range.
+
+**Better framing:** "Most construction projects in our lead feed represent €200K–€2M+ investments." Single-court buyers exist but are low-value for suppliers and can be excluded with a "minimum project size" filter.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Operator Revenue & Profitability
+
+**padel-court.de baseline model (4 outdoor courts, commercial, Germany 2021):**
+- Rate: €29/hr/court
+- Hours: 09:00–22:00 (13 hrs/day), 9 months/year (outdoor)
+- Occupancy: 55%
+- **Gross revenue per court/year: ~€56,000**
+- **4-court annual gross: ~€224,000**
+- 4-court indoor (12 months): **~€303,000/year gross**
+
+Source: https://padel-court.de/wie-viel-kann-man-mit-einem-padelcourt-verdienen/
+
+**Playtomic real-world GMV per court per month (2025):**
+
+| Country | GMV/court/month | YoY growth |
+|---|---|---|
+| UK | €9,700 | +74% |
+| Germany | €4,000 | +48% |
+| Spain | ~€3,500 | +16% |
+| Italy | ~€3,200 | +11% |
+| Benelux | ~€3,100 | +12% |
+
+UK at €9,700/court/month = **€116,400/court/year** gross. Germany at €4,000/month = **€48,000/court/year** gross. This aligns with the padel-court.de model.
+
+**6-court indoor facility P&L model** (from `scratch/padel-hall-guide.md`):
+
+| Metric | Year 1 (45% util.) | Year 2 (60%) | Year 3 (70%) |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Total revenue | €800,000 | €1,107,000 | €1,325,000 |
+| Total OPEX | €490,000 | €530,000 | €566,000 |
+| **EBITDA** | **€310,000** | **€577,000** | **€759,000** |
+| EBITDA margin | 39% | 52% | 57% |
+| Debt service (€800K loan, 5%, 10yr) | ~€102,000 | ~€102,000 | ~€102,000 |
+| Free cash flow after debt | ~€208,000 | ~€475,000 | ~€657,000 |
+
+**Key benchmarks:**
+- Breakeven utilisation: 35–40%
+- Payback period: 3–5 years (typical for well-run clubs)
+- Revenue per court at maturity: €150,000+/year
+- Playtomic reports first-year occupancy claims: "40–45%, break-even <24 months for 4-court club" (from Padelcreations)
+- Player return rate after first session: 92% (Playtomic 2025)
+
+---
+
+## 5. Supplier / Manufacturer Economics
+
+**No public financials exist** for padel court manufacturers (Artec, Mundo Padel, Global Padel, WePadel, Reform Sports, Padel Solution NL). All are private companies.
+
+**What can be inferred:**
+
+| Cost level | EUR/court | Notes |
+|---|---|---|
+| Ex-works China (structure only) | ~€4,000 | Steel frame + glass, no installation |
+| European supply-only | ~€10,000–€14,000 | Assembled in Europe, delivered ex-works |
+| European turnkey (supply + install) | €27,000–€45,000 | Padel-court.de, WePadel ranges |
+| Full project mgmt / consulting | €45,000–€100,000 | Padel Solution NL, padel-konzept.de |
+
+**Implied gross margin (rough):**
+- European manufacturer at €14,000 supply cost, selling for €30,000 installed: ~53% gross margin on product
+- Construction services margin: typically 15–30% in EU construction industry
+- Blended turnkey margin: likely 35–50% on full project revenue (no direct data found)
+
+**Typical contract values for lead marketplace suppliers:**
+
+| Supplier type | Typical contract | Deal frequency |
+|---|---|---|
+| Court manufacturer (supply only) | €40,000–€200,000 (2–8 courts) | Multiple/year |
+| Turnkey contractor (courts + foundation) | €100,000–€500,000 (4–8 courts) | 5–15/year |
+| Indoor hall builder (turnkey) | €500,000–€2,000,000 | 2–8/year |
+| Turf / lighting specialist | €10,000–€80,000 | 10–30/year |
+| Construction consultant | €15,000–€50,000 consulting fee | Multiple/year |
+
+A single closed deal for a turnkey contractor doing 4 outdoor courts = €200,000–€350,000 contract value. At 15% net margin = **€30,000–€52,000 profit per project**.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Market Growth (Construction Volume)
+
+**FIP / Playtomic 2025:**
+- Global courts end-2024: **50,017**
+- New courts built in 2024: **7,187**
+- Forecast end-2025: **59,524** (implies ~9,500 new courts in 2025)
+- Forecast end-2026: **70,274**
+- New clubs opened in 2024: **3,282** (+26% YoY)
+
+**Germany specifically (padel-court.de European stats, July 2025):**
+- Courts 2024: 507 → 2025: 827 (+63% growth)
+- DACH total new courts 2024: ~365
+
+**Implied European construction market size (rough):**
+- 7,187 new courts × Europe share (~60%) × €45,000/court average = **~€194M European court construction revenue in 2024**
+- Growing at ~20%/year → **~€233M in 2025**
+
+---
+
+## 7. Operating Cost Benchmarks (Germany, 6-court facility)
+
+| Cost item | Monthly | Annual |
+|---|---|---|
+| Electricity (lighting + HVAC) | €2,500–€4,500 | €30,000–€54,000 |
+| Staff (2–3 FTE + manager) | €9,900–€14,200 | €119,000–€170,000 |
+| Rent (varies by city) | €8,000–€15,000 | €96,000–€180,000 |
+| Insurance | €1,000–€2,000 | €12,000–€24,000 |
+| Maintenance | €1,500–€2,500 | €18,000–€30,000 |
+| Booking system / IT | €700–€1,000 | €8,400–€12,000 |
+| Marketing | €2,000–€4,000 | €24,000–€48,000 |
+
+Source: `market-research-padel-costs-2026.md` §6
+
+**One-time permits & compliance (Germany):** €15,000–€37,500 (typically 0.5–1% of construction value)
+
+---
+
+## 8. Sources
+
+| # | Source | Type | Confidence |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| [1] | padel-court.de/wie-viel-kann-man-mit-einem-padelcourt-verdienen/ | Operator blog, real project data | High |
+| [2] | padel-court.de/padel-courts-in-europa-2025-dynamik-dichte-differenzierung/ | Market stats, July 2025 | High |
+| [3] | Playtomic Global Padel Report 2025 (joint with PwC/Strategy&) | Institutional report | High |
+| [4] | FIP World Padel Report 2024 & 2025 | Federation data | High |
+| [5] | `research/market-research-padel-costs-2026.md` | Internal synthesis, multi-source | High |
+| [6] | `scratch/padel-hall-guide.md` | Internal financial model | Medium |
+| [7] | padelplatz-kosten.de calculator (Padel Solution / Ramon Tissler) | Manufacturer pricing tool | Medium |
+| [8] | padel-konzept.de city pages | Padel Solution NL list prices | Medium (single-supplier bias) |
+| [9] | WePadel.com blog 2025 | Turkish manufacturer, EN | Medium |
+| [10] | Reform Sports blog 2025 | Turkish manufacturer, EN | Medium |
+| [11] | `research/competitor_pricing.md` | Internal competitive analysis | High |
+| [12] | Padelcreations.com buyer personas + profit calculator | Spanish manufacturer marketing | Medium (optimistic bias) |
+| [13] | `research/sportstaettenrechner_quotes_2022.md` | Real lead volume data | High |
+| [14] | LTA UK padel construction guidance | Federation, UK-specific | High |
+
+**Not found / paywalled:**
+- Individual manufacturer financials (all private companies)
+- Padel Solution NL financials
+- Published gross margin data for court manufacturers
+- Mordor Intelligence / Grand View / Technavio market reports (all paywalled)
+- Companies House / KvK filings (would need company registration numbers)