padelnomics/research/PLAN.md

# Padelnomics — Execution Plan

**Date:** 2026-02-16
**Model:** Zillow for padel — open consumer tool, monetize both sides

---

## Positioning

**One-liner:** The intelligence platform for padel entrepreneurs — plan your facility, get builder quotes, export a bank-ready business plan.

**Business model:** Two-sided marketplace.
- **Entrepreneur side (padelnomics.io):** Open planner drives traffic and engagement. Revenue from paid business plan export (bank-ready PDF). Later: market intelligence subscriptions.
- **Builder/supplier side (padelnomics.io/suppliers):** Pay for qualified leads via credits and subscriptions. Boost upsells for directory visibility. All leads paywalled from day one.
- **Data moat:** Playtomic scraping starts early, compounds daily. Improves planner defaults, powers market research. Eventually becomes its own paid product.

**Languages:** English (default) + German from launch.

**Name:** Padelnomics (final). Keep current branding and colors.

---

## Architecture: Two Audiences, Two Experiences

### padelnomics.io — Entrepreneur Side

Clean, minimal. Calculator front and center.

- Full 6-tab planner works without signup (guest mode)
- All 60+ variables, all charts, all metrics — zero friction
- **Signup required for:** saving scenarios, exporting business plan PDF, requesting builder quotes
- Hero: "Plan. Finance. Build." + calculator entry point
- Journey stages visible as roadmap with "Coming Soon" badges on future stages

### padelnomics.io/suppliers — Builder/Supplier Side

Separate landing page, separate value prop, separate dashboard.

- Sells lead access to builders/suppliers
- Shows: lead volume, avg project value, how credits work, pricing tiers
- Signup flow with plan selection + boost upsells (RemoteOK-style psychology)
- Dashboard: KPIs, lead feed, listing management, boost toggles

Entrepreneurs never see builder pricing. Builders never see the planner internals.

---

## Product & Pricing Structure (Paddle)

### Entrepreneur Products

| Product | Type | Price | Paddle Config |
|---------|------|-------|---------------|
| **Padel Business Plan** | One-time | €99 | One-time charge |
| **Padel Business Plan Pro** | Subscription | €39/mo | Monthly recurring |
| *(Phase 3) Market Intelligence Explorer* | Subscription | €79/mo | Monthly recurring |
| *(Phase 3) Market Intelligence Pro* | Subscription | €149/mo | Monthly recurring |

**Padel Business Plan (€99 one-time):**
Bank-ready PDF auto-generated from planner inputs. Covers what banks and investors need to see for facility financing (including KfW Gründerkredit in Germany). Available in English and German. Contains:

- **Executive summary** — facility concept, location, key financials at a glance
- **Market analysis** — padel-specific templated narrative covering target market, competitive landscape, demand drivers. User fills in location-specific details.
- **Investment plan** — full CAPEX breakdown from planner (courts, construction, equipment, working capital, contingency). Mapped to standard bank categories. Includes budget vs. projected CAPEX comparison.
- **Revenue & profitability forecast** — 3-year P&L from planner projections. Revenue streams, operating costs by category, EBITDA, net income, available income after debt service and taxes.
- **Liquidity plan** — 12-month cash flow from planner's monthly model. Inflows, outflows by category, monthly and cumulative balance, financing structure (equity + debt).
- **Sensitivity analysis** — utilization and pricing sensitivity tables from planner
- **Key metrics** — IRR, MOIC, DSCR, cash-on-cash, break-even utilization, payback period

Uses the calculator's own numbers and formatting. Clean, professional layout. Not locked to any specific bank's form — but covers everything banks, KfW, and investors ask for.

**Business Plan Pro (€39/mo):**
Everything above, plus:
- Unlimited scenario exports (compare indoor vs outdoor, 4-court vs 8-court, etc.)
- Market data in projections (from Playtomic scraping, when available)
- Sensitivity analysis appendix with additional scenarios
- Branded cover page with company logo

### Supplier Products

| Product | Type | Price | Paddle Config |
|---------|------|-------|---------------|
| **Supplier Growth** | Subscription | €149/mo | Monthly recurring |
| **Supplier Pro** | Subscription | €399/mo | Monthly recurring |
| **Credit Pack 25** | One-time | €99 | One-time charge |
| **Credit Pack 50** | One-time | €179 | One-time charge |
| **Credit Pack 100** | One-time | €329 | One-time charge |
| **Credit Pack 250** | One-time | €749 | One-time charge |
| **Boost: Logo** | Add-on | €29/mo | Monthly recurring add-on |
| **Boost: Highlight** | Add-on | €39/mo | Monthly recurring add-on |
| **Boost: Verified Badge** | Add-on | €49/mo | Monthly recurring add-on |
| **Boost: Lead Feed Access** | Add-on | €199/mo | Monthly recurring add-on |
| **Boost: Newsletter Feature** | Add-on | €99/mo | Monthly recurring add-on |
| **Boost: Sticky Top (1 week)** | One-time | €79 | One-time charge |
| **Boost: Sticky Top (1 month)** | One-time | €199 | One-time charge |

**Supplier Growth (€149/mo):** Directory listing + 30 credits/mo + basic analytics.
**Supplier Pro (€399/mo):** Directory listing + 100 credits/mo + full analytics + priority placement.

No free tier for suppliers. Leads are paywalled from day one.

### App-Side Implementation

Products managed through:
1. **Paddle product catalog** — all products/prices defined in Paddle dashboard
2. **`products` table in app DB** — maps Paddle product IDs to internal feature flags
3. **`subscriptions` table** — tracks active subs per user (synced via Paddle webhooks)
4. **`credits` table** — tracks credit balance per supplier (incremented on purchase, decremented on lead unlock)
5. **`entitlements` helper** — checks what a user can do: `can_export_pdf(user)`, `can_view_leads(user)`, `has_credits(user, n)`
6. **Paddle webhook handler** — processes subscription.created/updated/cancelled, transaction.completed for one-time purchases

---

## New Calculator Variables

### Budget Target (`budget`)
Top-level input in the Assumptions tab. User enters their total budget (e.g. €300K).

**Enables:**
- **Budget vs. Plan indicator** across Investment tab and Key Metrics: "Your plan costs €340K — €40K over budget"
- **Savings guidance:** "Switch from panoramic to standard glass to save €24K"
- **Pre-fills budget** in the quote request brief (validated against a real model, not a guess)
- **Business plan PDF** shows "Budget vs. Projected CAPEX" — banks value this

### Court Glass Type (`glassType`)
Pill select in Assumptions tab.

Options: `panoramic` (full panoramic glass walls, higher cost) / `standard` (standard glass walls) / `no_preference`

Affects: court cost per unit in CAPEX calculation. Pre-fills into quote request brief.

### Lighting Type (`lightingType`)
Pill select in Assumptions tab.

Options: `led_competition` (competition-grade, higher cost) / `led_standard` (standard, moderate cost) / `natural` (natural light / outdoor, no lighting CAPEX)

Affects: lighting line item in CAPEX calculation. Pre-fills into quote request brief.

---

## "Get Builder Quotes" — Lead Qualification Flow

3-step form designed for maximum lead qualification. Pre-fills from calculator state where possible. Reference: `padelnomics-demand-side.jsx`.

### Step 1: Project Specs

Pre-filled from calculator, editable by user.

| Field | Source | Options |
|-------|--------|---------|
| Facility type | Calculator (venue type) | Indoor / Outdoor / Both indoor & outdoor |
| Number of courts | Calculator (dblCourts + sglCourts) | 1–16 slider |
| Court glass type | Calculator (glassType) | Panoramic glass / Standard glass / No preference yet |
| Lighting | Calculator (lightingType) | LED competition / LED standard / Natural light only / Not sure yet |
| Build context | Brief-only | New standalone facility / Adding to existing sports club / Converting existing building |

### Step 2: Project Details

Lead qualification fields — not in calculator.

| Field | Type | Options |
|-------|------|---------|
| City / Region | Text input | e.g. "Göttingen, Lower Saxony" |
| Country | Dropdown | Germany, Netherlands, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Portugal, UAE, USA, Other |
| Timeline | Pill select | ASAP (< 3 months) / 3–6 months / 6–12 months / 12+ months (exploring) |
| Budget | Pre-filled from calculator | Editable. Shows "Based on your plan: €340K" if coming from planner |
| Location status | Pill select | Lease/purchase signed / Shortlisted locations / Still searching |
| Financing status | Pill select | Self-funded / Bank loan approved / Seeking financing / Not started |
| *(If "Seeking financing")* | Conditional | "Would you like help finding padel facility financing?" — Yes, connect me with financing partners / No, just builder quotes for now |
| Decision process | Pill select | Solo decision / Business partners / Club board or committee |
| Previous supplier contact | Pill select | Already received quotes / Talked to some / This is my first step |
| Services needed | Multi-select pills | Court construction (turnkey), Court surfaces only, Steel structures / canopy, Glass walls, Lighting systems, Flooring / foundation, Architecture & planning, Consulting / feasibility |
| Additional info | Textarea | "E.g. converting an existing warehouse, need planning permission support..." |

### Step 3: Contact Details

| Field | Required | Notes |
|-------|----------|-------|
| Name | Yes | |
| Email | Yes | Also creates account if not logged in |
| Phone | Optional | |
| Company / Organization | Optional | |

Shows summary card of all selections before submission.
Privacy notice: "Your contact details are shared only with matched, paying suppliers. No spam, no public listing."

### After Submission

- Lead stored in `lead_requests` with all fields + linked to scenario if user was logged in
- Confirmation page with "What happens next" steps
- Confirmation email sent to user
- Lead appears in supplier lead feed (anonymized until unlocked with credits)
- Heat score auto-calculated from readiness signals:

| Signal Combo | Heat | Credit Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Location secured + financing approved/self-funded + timeline <6mo + solo decision | Hot | 30–40 credits |
| Shortlisted + seeking financing + 6–12mo + partners | Warm | 15–25 credits |
| Still searching + not started + 12+mo + committee | Cool | 5–10 credits |

- If "Yes, connect me with financing partners" → flagged as financing lead for future Phase 2–3 monetization

---

## Builder Directory

Public directory at `/directory` showing court builders and suppliers.

### Listing Structure

Each listing shows:
- Company name + logo (if Logo boost active)
- Service area (countries/regions)
- Specialties (turnkey, surfaces, glass, lighting, structures, etc.)
- Short description
- Project count / years in business
- Verified badge (if Verified boost active)
- "Request Quote" CTA → links to the lead qualification flow

### Directory Layout

- Grid/list view of suppliers
- Filter by: country, service type, specialty
- Sort by: relevance (default, weighted by boost level), newest
- Highlighted listings (if Highlight boost active) get colored border/background
- Sticky top placements (if Sticky boost purchased) pinned above organic results

### Boost Effects

| Boost | Effect in Directory | Effect on Profile |
|-------|--------------------|--------------------|
| Logo (+€29/mo) | Company logo shown next to name | Logo on profile page |
| Highlight (+€39/mo) | Colored border, stands out in list | Featured badge |
| Verified (+€49/mo) | "Verified" badge | Trust signal |
| Lead Feed (+€199/mo) | — | Access to anonymized project briefs |
| Newsletter (+€99/mo) | — | Featured in monthly newsletter to entrepreneurs |
| Sticky 1wk (€79) | Pinned to top of results for 1 week | — |
| Sticky 1mo (€199) | Pinned to top of results for 1 month | — |

### Supplier Signup Flow

Reference: `padelnomics-supplier-signup.jsx`. Built in Quart/HTMX.

1. **Choose plan** — Growth (€149/mo) or Pro (€399/mo). Show what's included.
2. **Add boosts** — pre-selected "recommended" bundle (Logo + Highlight + Verified = +€117/mo). Show visibility multiplier ("3.2x more visibility vs basic listing"). Loss aversion: all recommended boosts pre-checked, user opts out.
3. **Extra credits** — optional credit packs if they want more leads beyond monthly allocation
4. **Account details** — company name, contact, email, country, service categories
5. **Paddle checkout** — processes subscription + any add-ons/one-time purchases

---

## Phase 0 — Ungate & Validate (Weeks 1–2)

**Goal:** Get distribution flowing. Validate that builders will pay for leads.

### 0.1 Guest Mode Planner
- Remove `@login_required` from `/planner/` and `/planner/calculate`
- Planner works fully without signup — all 6 tabs, all inputs, all outputs
- Disable scenario save/load/compare for guests (show "Sign up to save" prompt)
- Ensure planner page is SEO-indexable (meta tags, og:image, structured data)

### 0.2 New Calculator Variables
- Add budget target input to Assumptions tab with over/under indicator on Investment tab and Key Metrics
- Add court glass type (panoramic/standard/no preference) to Assumptions tab
- Add lighting type (LED competition/standard/natural) to Assumptions tab
- Wire into CAPEX calculation

### 0.3 CTAs on Planner Results
Two CTAs visible after the user has results:

**"Export Business Plan (PDF)" → €99**
- Requires signup → Paddle checkout
- Auto-generates bank-ready PDF from current planner state (EN or DE)

**"Get Builder Quotes" → 3-step lead qualification flow**
- Pre-fills from calculator state (court count, type, glass, lighting, budget)
- Captures readiness signals (location status, financing, decision process, previous contact)
- Stores in `lead_requests` with heat score
- Confirmation page + email

### 0.4 Builder Outreach & Paid Validation
- Reach out to 5–10 German court builders
- Pitch: "We have entrepreneurs planning padel facilities. Pay per lead to connect."
- Offer Growth plan (€149/mo) or credit packs
- Goal: 1+ paying builder within 2 weeks
- No free tier, no free trial — validate willingness to pay immediately

### 0.5 SEO Validation
- Research keyword volumes: "padel halle kosten," "padel court cost," "padel business plan," "padel hall bauen"
- Target: confirm >500 combined monthly searches

### 0.6 First SEO Article
- "How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in 2026?"
- Link to the planner
- Publish on padelnomics.io/blog

**Exit criteria:**
- [ ] Planner accessible without login
- [ ] New calculator variables (budget, glass type, lighting) live
- [ ] Business plan PDF export working (Paddle checkout → PDF generation)
- [ ] "Get Builder Quotes" 3-step flow live and capturing qualified leads
- [ ] 1+ builder paying for lead access
- [ ] Keyword volumes confirmed

---

## Phase 1 — Revenue Engine (Weeks 3–8)

**Goal:** Both revenue streams producing. Builder directory live. Content flywheel started. Data moat seeded.

### 1a. Lead Operations (Weeks 3–4)
- Admin view to manage incoming quote requests
- Lead forwarding to paying builders (automated email with project brief)
- Email nurture sequence for planner users who didn't convert
- Track conversion: planner completions → quote requests → builder unlocks → deals

### 1b. Builder Directory (Weeks 3–5)
- Public directory at /directory
- All listings require paid subscription (Growth €149/mo or Pro €399/mo)
- Company profiles: name, logo, service area, specialties, description, projects
- Boost upsells: logo, highlight, verified badge, sticky placements
- Pre-selected "recommended" bundle during signup
- Visibility multiplier display
- "Request Quote" CTA on each listing → leads to quote flow
- Built in Quart/HTMX, using supplier-signup.jsx as design reference

### 1c. Content & SEO (Weeks 3–6)
- 2 more SEO articles:
  - Passive stage: "Is Padel Still a Good Investment in 2026? The Data Says..."
  - Deciding stage: "What Banks Want to See in a Padel Business Plan"
- Programmatic city pages from Playtomic data (/markets/berlin, /markets/munich, etc.)
- Post to padel communities (Reddit, Facebook groups, padel forums)

### 1d. Data Pipeline — padelnomics-data (Weeks 3–6, parallel track)
Separate `padelnomics-data` package in the uv monorepo. ELT-style architecture.

- **Extract:** Scraper API for Playtomic data (venues, availability, pricing)
- **Load/Transform:** sqlmesh + DuckDB
- **Output:** Market-informed defaults flowing back into the planner (avg pricing by region, typical court counts)
- Basic public market map (builds authority + SEO)
- Historical storage from day 1 (the moat compounds daily)

*Data engineering architecture to be discussed separately.*

### Revenue target: €1K–2K/mo
- Builder subscriptions: 2–3 × €149–399/mo
- Credit purchases from builders
- Business plan PDF exports: 5–10 × €99

---

## Phase 2 — Scale the Marketplace (Months 3–6)

**Goal:** Automated lead marketplace. Supplier dashboard live. €3K–5K MRR.

### 2a. Supplier Landing Page (/suppliers)
- Dedicated landing page selling to builders
- Value prop: "Get connected with entrepreneurs planning padel facilities"
- Show: monthly lead volume, average project value, how credits work
- Social proof: "X projects planned this month, €Y total investment value"
- Pricing table with Growth/Pro plans + boost add-ons
- CTA: "Start Getting Leads" → signup flow

### 2b. Supplier Dashboard
- Dashboard tab: KPIs (profile views, leads unlocked, credits balance, directory rank)
- Lead feed tab: browse + filter anonymized project briefs, unlock with credits
- My listing tab: preview how company appears, performance metrics (views, clicks, contact requests)
- Boosts tab: toggle add-ons, see visibility multiplier, update plan
- Built in Quart/HTMX, using supplier-dashboard.jsx as design reference

### 2c. Lead Feed & Credits
- Anonymized project briefs visible to subscribed builders
- Heat scoring from readiness signals (location status, financing, timeline, decision process)
- Credit cost scales with heat + project size
- Bidder count visible ("2 suppliers already unlocked — be first in your region!")

### 2d. Business Plan Pro (€39/mo subscription)
- Upgrade from one-time PDF
- Unlimited scenario exports
- Market data integration (when available from padelnomics-data)
- Sensitivity analysis appendix
- Branded cover page

### 2e. Market Map (Public)
- Interactive map of padel venues (from padelnomics-data pipeline)
- Court density, pricing ranges, basic occupancy indicators
- City-level aggregate stats
- Drives SEO, demonstrates data capability
- Teaser for future paid intelligence product

### 2f. Financing Leads (if validated)
- If enough "Yes, connect me with financing partners" signals accumulated in Phase 0–1
- Approach banks/lenders: "We have X entrepreneurs/mo seeking facility financing"
- Same credit-based marketplace model, different supply side

### Revenue target: €3K–5K MRR
- 5–8 builder subscriptions × €149–399/mo
- Credit revenue from lead unlocks
- Business plan exports (one-time + subscription)
- Boost add-on revenue

---

## Phase 3 — Data & Intelligence (Months 6–12)

**Goal:** Data moat becomes a product. €5K–10K MRR. Monetize the entrepreneur side with intelligence.

*Exact shape depends on what we learn in Phases 0–2. This is directional.*

### 3a. Market Intelligence Dashboard (Paid)
By now we have 6+ months of historical data + hundreds of completed plans.

- Explorer tier (€79/mo): city-level stats, monthly trends, market map with overlays
- Pro tier (€149/mo): venue-level data, competitor tracking, site selection scoring, historical data, export
- Features: occupancy heatmaps, pricing benchmarks, demand gap analysis, competitor alerts, growth trends

### 3b. Operator Analytics
- For venue owners already running halls
- Benchmark performance vs. market (occupancy, pricing, revenue/court)
- Pricing optimization from scraped competitor data
- Competitor monitoring alerts (new venues, pricing changes)
- Natural upsell for planner users who actually built their facility

### 3c. Premium Products
- Site Selection Reports (€499–999): custom location analysis
- Quarterly "State of Padel" reports: builds authority, generates enterprise leads
- Financing partner integrations (full lending marketplace)

### Revenue target: €5K–10K MRR

---

## Phase 4 — Scale (Months 12–18+)

**Goal:** Pan-European. €10K+ MRR.

- Geographic expansion: DACH → Western Europe → global
- Additional language support
- Multi-source data aggregation (beyond Playtomic)
- Enterprise tier for franchises, RE developers, investors
- API / data licensing
- Newsletter monetization ("The Padel Business Report")
- Productized consulting (Padel Hall Accelerator, €999)
- ML/forecasting layer on accumulated data

---

## Revenue Model Summary

| Phase | Timeline | Source | Target MRR |
|-------|----------|--------|------------|
| 0 | Weeks 1–2 | Business plan PDF + first builder payments | €0–500 |
| 1 | Weeks 3–8 | Builder subs + credits + PDF exports + directory | €1K–2K |
| 2 | Months 3–6 | Scaled marketplace + Business Plan Pro sub | €3K–5K |
| 3 | Months 6–12 | + Market intelligence subs + premium reports | €5K–10K |
| 4 | Months 12–18 | + Enterprise + API + consulting | €10K+ |

---

## Key Assumptions to Validate

| # | Assumption | How to Test | Success Signal | Phase |
|---|-----------|-------------|----------------|-------|
| 1 | Builders will pay for leads | Direct outreach, no free trial | 1+ builder paying in week 2 | 0 |
| 2 | SEO can drive traffic | Keyword volume research | >500 combined monthly searches | 0 |
| 3 | Open planner → quote requests | Track completions → CTA clicks | >5% conversion to quote request | 0–1 |
| 4 | Entrepreneurs will pay €99 for bank-ready PDF | Build it, sell it | 5+ sales in first month | 1 |
| 5 | Playtomic data is scrapable at scale | Build pipeline, run 2 weeks | Stable daily scrape | 1 |
| 6 | Builders prefer subscription over per-lead | Offer both | 30%+ choose subscription | 2 |
| 7 | Financing lead demand exists | Count "connect me with financing" signals | 20%+ of leads request financing help | 0–1 |

---

## Tech Stack

### padelnomics (web app)
- **Backend:** Quart (async Python) + aiosqlite
- **Frontend:** Vanilla JS + HTMX + Tailwind CSS v4 + Chart.js
- **Auth:** Magic links (existing)
- **Payments:** Paddle (products, subscriptions, one-time charges, webhooks)
- **PDF generation:** TBD (WeasyPrint or similar Python PDF library)
- **Deployment:** Docker + GitLab CI/CD + blue-green deploys (existing)

### padelnomics-data (data pipeline)
- Separate package in the uv monorepo
- **Extraction:** Scraper API
- **Transformation:** sqlmesh + DuckDB
- **Architecture:** ELT-style, batch extraction
- *Details to be discussed separately.*

React prototypes used as **design reference only** — everything built in Quart/HTMX:
- `padelnomics-demand-side.jsx` → quote request flow
- `padelnomics-supplier-signup.jsx` → supplier signup
- `supplier-dashboard.jsx` → supplier dashboard

---

## What We're NOT Doing (Yet)

Parked until Phase 3+ or until demand proves it:
- Operator dashboards / ERP features
- AI scenario advisor
- Franchise toolkit
- M&A intelligence
- Mobile app
- Paid advertising
- Free tiers for suppliers
- Full financing marketplace (capturing intent signal only for now)