fix(supervisor): stop infinite deploy loop in web_code_changed()

HEAD~1..HEAD always shows the same diff after os.execv reloads the
process — every tick triggers deploy.sh if the last commit touched web/.

Fix: track the last-seen HEAD in a module-level variable. On first call
(fresh process after os.execv), fall back to HEAD~1 so the newly-deployed
commit is evaluated once. Recording HEAD before returning means the same
commit never fires twice, regardless of how many ticks pass.

Also remove two unused imports (json, urllib.request) caught by ruff.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

data/content/articles/padel-business-plan-bank-de.md

@@ -91,6 +91,8 @@ Die Bilanz am ersten Betriebstag: Aktiva (Anlagevermögen nach CAPEX, Anfangsliq
 
 ## KfW-Förderprogramme für Padelhallen
 
+Abschnitt 9 des Gliederungsrahmens verlangt: Welche Förderprogramme wurden geprüft? Hier ist die Antwort, die Ihr Businessplan liefern muss.
+
 Die KfW bietet mehrere Programme, die für Padelhallen-Projekte relevant sein können. Wichtig: KfW-Kredite werden nicht direkt bei der KfW beantragt, sondern über die Hausbank. Die Hausbank leitet den Antrag weiter und trägt einen Teil des Ausfallrisikos mit — was erklärt, warum sie ein starkes Eigeninteresse an der Qualität des Businessplans hat.
 
 **KfW Unternehmerkredit (037/047)**
@@ -129,7 +131,7 @@ Was passiert, wenn die Auslastung 10 Prozentpunkte unter Plan liegt? Wenn die Ba
 
 ### 4. Unvollständiger CAPEX
 
-Häufig unterschätzt: Nebenkosten des Baus (Architektenhonorar, Baunebenkosten, Baugenehmigungsgebühren), Working Capital für die Anlaufphase (3–6 Monate Betriebskosten als Puffer), Kosten der Betriebsaufnahme (Marketing, Erstausstattung, Versicherungen vor Eröffnung), Unvorhergesehenes (Bankstandard: 10 Prozent Contingency auf den Rohbau). Wer diese Positionen vergisst, finanziert sich zu knapp — und die Bank bemerkt es.
+Häufig unterschätzt: Nebenkosten des Baus (Architektenhonorar, Baunebenkosten, Baugenehmigungsgebühren), Working Capital für die Anlaufphase (3–6 Monate Betriebskosten als Puffer), Kosten der Betriebsaufnahme (Marketing, Erstausstattung, Versicherungen vor Eröffnung), Unvorhergesehenes (Mindestpuffer: 10 Prozent auf den Rohbau — bei Sportstättenumbauten realistisch eher 15–20 Prozent). Wer diese Positionen vergisst, finanziert sich zu knapp — und die Bank bemerkt es.
 
 ### 5. KfW nicht adressiert
 
@@ -148,7 +150,7 @@ Fragen, die Sie sich vor der Bürgschaftsübernahme stellen sollten:
 - Gibt es Vermögenswerte, die ich herauslösen kann (z.B. durch Schenkung an Ehepartner vor Gründung — hier unbedingt Rechtsberatung einholen, da Anfechtungsrisiken bestehen)?
 - Wie viele Monate Verlustbetrieb kann ich aus eigenen Mitteln abfedern?
 
-Wer diese Fragen beantwortet hat, hat das Projekt ernst genommen.
+Wer diese Fragen beantwortet hat, hat das Projekt ernst genommen. Das spüren Banken.
 
 ---
 

data/content/articles/padel-business-plan-bank-requirements-en.md

@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ The formula:
 DSCR = operating cash flow ÷ annual debt service (interest + principal)
 ```
 
-The standard in German SME lending: **1.2 to 1.5x**. For every €1 of debt service, the project needs to generate €1.20–1.50 of cash flow. Below 1.2x, you'll either face rejection or be asked to inject more equity. A plan that doesn't make the DSCR calculation transparent forces the loan officer to do the math himself — and he'll be more conservative than you.
+The standard in German SME lending: **1.2 to 1.5x**. For every €1 of debt service, the project needs to generate €1.20–1.50 of cash flow. Below 1.2x, you'll either face rejection or be asked to inject more equity. A plan that doesn't make the DSCR calculation transparent forces the loan officer to do the math himself — and they'll be more conservative than you.
 
 The other hard constraint is **equity contribution** (*Eigenkapitalquote*): banks typically expect the founder to put in 20–30% of total investment. KfW subsidy programs can partly substitute for equity (more on that below), but they never replace it entirely. Coming to the table with 10% equity rarely works.
 
@@ -89,6 +89,8 @@ The balance sheet on Day 1: assets (fixed assets after CAPEX, opening cash) vers
 
 ## KfW Subsidy Programs for Padel Hall Projects
 
+Section 9 of the business plan framework above asks which financing programs have been evaluated. Here's the answer your plan needs to provide.
+
 KfW (Germany's state development bank) offers several programs relevant to padel hall construction and launch. One crucial operational detail: KfW loans are not applied for directly at KfW. They're applied for through your *Hausbank* (house bank), which passes the application to KfW and shares a portion of the default risk. This is precisely why your Hausbank cares so much about the quality of your business plan — they're on the hook too.
 
 **KfW Unternehmerkredit (programs 037/047)**
@@ -109,7 +111,7 @@ Each German state (*Bundesland*) runs its own SME and startup lending programs t
 - Hamburg: IFB Hamburg
 - Saxony: Sächsische Aufbaubank (SAB)
 
-These programs are overlooked in the majority of business plans we've reviewed — despite the fact that combining them with KfW can meaningfully reduce the equity burden.
+These programs are overlooked in the majority of business plans we've reviewed — even though combining them with KfW can meaningfully reduce the equity burden.
 
 ---
 
@@ -129,7 +131,7 @@ What happens if utilization comes in 10 percentage points below plan? If constru
 
 ### 4. Incomplete CAPEX
 
-Frequently underestimated items: architect and engineering fees, permitting fees and costs of the *Baugenehmigung* (building permit), working capital for the ramp-up period (3–6 months of operating costs), pre-opening expenses (marketing, initial inventory, pre-opening insurance), and contingency (the industry standard is 10% of raw construction costs). Forget these, and you're underfunded from Day 1.
+Frequently underestimated items: architect and engineering fees, permitting fees and costs of the *Baugenehmigung* (building permit), working capital for the ramp-up period (3–6 months of operating costs), pre-opening expenses (marketing, initial inventory, pre-opening insurance), and contingency (minimum 10% of raw construction costs — 15–20% is more realistic for sports hall conversions). Forget these, and you're underfunded from Day 1.
 
 ### 5. No mention of KfW or subsidy programs
 
@@ -148,7 +150,7 @@ Questions worth answering before you proceed:
 - Are there assets that could be structured outside the exposure (specialist legal advice is essential here, as pre-signing asset transfers can be challenged under German insolvency law)?
 - How many months of operating losses could I absorb from personal resources?
 
-A founder who has worked through these questions has taken the project seriously. That comes across in a bank conversation.
+A founder who has worked through these questions has taken the project seriously. Banks can tell.
 
 ---
 

data/content/articles/padel-hall-build-guide-en.md

@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ Steps 1–5        Steps 6–11       Steps 12–16       Steps 17–20     Step
 
 ## Phase 1: Feasibility and Concept (Months 1–3)
 
-This is the most important phase and the one where projects most often go wrong in one of two directions: either stopping too early because the first obstacle looks daunting, or moving too fast because enthusiasm outpaces analysis. Rigorous work here prevents expensive corrections later.
+This is the most important phase — and where projects most often go wrong in one of two directions: stopping too early because the first obstacle looks daunting, or moving too fast because enthusiasm outpaces analysis. Rigorous work here prevents expensive corrections later.
 
 ### Step 1: Market Research
 
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ Good market research won't guarantee success, but it will protect you from the m
 
 Your market research should drive your concept. How many courts? Which customer segments — competitive recreational players, club training, corporate wellness, broad community use? What service level — a pure booking facility or a full-concept venue with lounge, bar, pro shop, and coaching program?
 
-Every decision here cascades into investment requirements, operating costs, and revenue potential. Nail this down before moving to site selection.
+Every decision here cascades into investment requirements, operating costs, and revenue potential. Nail the concept before moving to site selection.
 
 ### Step 3: Location Scouting
 
@@ -125,7 +125,7 @@ Approach lenders with your full business plan. Typical capital structure for pad
 - 50–70% debt (bank loan)
 - 30–50% equity (own funds, silent partners, shareholder loans)
 
-What lenders will require: a credible financial model, collateral, your track record, and — almost universally for single-asset leisure facilities — personal guarantees from principal shareholders. See the companion article on investment risks for a full treatment of personal guarantee exposure.
+What lenders will require: a credible financial model, collateral, your track record, and — almost universally for single-asset leisure facilities — personal guarantees from principal shareholders. The companion article on investment risks covers personal guarantee exposure in full.
 
 Investigate public funding programs: development bank loans, regional sports infrastructure grants, and municipal co-investment schemes can reduce either equity requirements or interest burden. This research is worth several hours of your time.
 
@@ -256,6 +256,8 @@ Patterns emerge when you observe padel hall projects across a market over time.
 
 **Projects that succeed long-term** treat all three phases — planning, build, and opening — with equal rigor, and invest early and consistently in community and repeat customers.
 
+Building a padel hall is complex, but it is a solved problem. The failures are nearly always the same failures. So are the successes.
+
 ---
 
 ## Find Builders and Suppliers Through Padelnomics

data/content/articles/padel-hall-cost-guide-en.md

@@ -9,11 +9,11 @@ cornerstone: C2
 
 # How Much Does It Cost to Open a Padel Hall in Germany? Complete 2026 CAPEX Breakdown
 
-Anyone who has started researching padel hall investment in Germany has encountered the same frustrating non-answer: "it depends." And it genuinely does — total project costs for a six-court indoor facility range from **€930,000 to €1.9 million**, a span wide enough to make planning feel impossible.
+Anyone researching padel hall investment in Germany hits the same frustrating non-answer: "it depends." And it genuinely does — total project costs for a six-court indoor facility range from **€930,000 to €1.9 million**, a span wide enough to make planning feel impossible.
 
 But that range is not noise. It reflects specific, quantifiable decisions: whether you're fitting out an existing warehouse or building from scratch, whether you're in Munich or Leipzig, whether you want panorama glass courts or standard construction. Once you understand where the variance lives, the numbers become plannable.
 
-This article gives you the complete picture: itemized CAPEX, city-by-city rent and booking rates, a full operating cost breakdown, a three-year P&L projection, and the key metrics your bank will want to see. All figures are based on real German market data from 2025–2026. By the end, you should be able to build a credible first-pass financial model for your specific scenario — and walk into a lender conversation with confidence.
+This article gives you the complete picture: itemized CAPEX, city-by-city rent and booking rates, a full operating cost breakdown, a three-year P&L projection, and the key metrics your bank will want to see. All figures are based on real German market data from 2025–2026. By the end, you'll have everything you need to build a credible first-pass financial model for your specific scenario — and walk into a lender conversation with confidence.
 
 ---
 
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ This article gives you the complete picture: itemized CAPEX, city-by-city rent a
 
 The single largest driver of CAPEX variance is construction. Converting a suitable existing warehouse — one that already has the necessary ceiling height (8–9 m clear) and adequate structural load — costs vastly less than a ground-up build or a complete gut-renovation. This line item alone accounts for €400,000 to €800,000 of the total budget.
 
-Location adds another layer of variance. The same 2,000 sqm hall costs 40–60% more to rent in Munich than in Leipzig. That gap shows up not just in annual OPEX but in the lease deposit and the working capital reserve you need to fund the ramp-up — both of which are part of your initial CAPEX.
+Location adds another layer of variance. The same 2,000 sqm hall costs 40–60% more to rent in Munich than in Leipzig across comparable market tiers — at the extremes, the gap is considerably wider. That difference runs through every budget line: not just annual rent, but the lease deposit and working capital reserve needed at launch, both part of your initial CAPEX.
 
 For a **six-court indoor facility** with solid but not extravagant fit-out, the realistic planning figure is **€1.2–1.5 million all-in**. Projects that come in below that typically either benefited from an exceptional real estate deal or — more often — undercounted one of the three most expensive items: construction, HVAC, and the operating reserve.
 
@@ -56,6 +56,8 @@ For a **six-court indoor facility** with solid but not extravagant fit-out, the
 
 ## Commercial Rent by German City
 
+Construction and courts consume most of your initial budget. What determines long-term viability is what you pay every month: rent.
+
 A six-court facility with changing rooms, a reception area, and a lounge requires **1,500–2,500 sqm** of floor space. Current industrial/warehouse lease rates across major German cities:
 
 | City | Rent €/sqm/month | Typical monthly cost (2,000 sqm) |
@@ -77,7 +79,7 @@ One structural note: German commercial landlords typically require lease terms o
 
 ## Court Hire Rates: What the Market Will Bear
 
-Booking rates vary significantly by city and time slot. The following figures are drawn from platform data and direct market surveys:
+Revenue potential tracks location almost as closely as rent does. The following booking rates are drawn from platform data and direct market surveys:
 
 | City | Off-Peak (€/hr) | Peak (€/hr) | Confidence |
 |---|---|---|---|
@@ -113,6 +115,8 @@ Operating cost projections are where business plans most often diverge from real
 | Admin, accounting, legal | €20,000 | €22,000 | €24,000 |
 | **Total OPEX** | **€490,000** | **€530,000** | **€566,000** |
 
+Note: the rent line reflects a well-positioned facility in a mid-tier city. For Munich or Berlin, adjust upward using the city rent table above — and recalibrate your revenue assumptions accordingly.
+
 **Staffing** is the line that most first-time operators get wrong. Five FTEs is a genuine minimum for professional operations — reception, court management, a coach, administration. In Germany, employer social security contributions add roughly 20% on top of gross wages. €200k in Year 1 for a five-person team is lean, not generous.
 
 **Energy** depends heavily on the building envelope. An older warehouse with poor insulation and an oversized, inefficient HVAC installation can run 30–50% higher than the figures shown here. Commissioning a quick energy audit before signing the lease is cheap insurance.
@@ -167,13 +171,13 @@ On an €800k loan at 5% over 10 years, annual debt service is approximately €
 
 ## What Lenders Actually Look For
 
-A padel hall is an unusual asset class for most bank credit officers. What moves a credit committee is not enthusiasm for the sport — it is the rigor of the financial documentation.
+A padel hall is an unfamiliar asset class for most bank credit officers. They have no mental model for court utilization rates or booking yield — and that is actually an opportunity. What moves a credit committee is not enthusiasm for the sport. It is the rigor of the financial documentation. Arrive with clean numbers and you stand out from the start.
 
 **DSCR of 1.2–1.5x minimum.** Lenders want operating cash flow to cover debt service with a 20–50% buffer. The base case in this model clears that bar easily; your job is to show it holds under stress scenarios too.
 
-**Signed lease agreement.** Without a lease in place, the credit assessment stays hypothetical. A long-term lease with indexed escalation is a positive signal to lenders — it translates future revenue into something closer to contracted income.
+**Signed lease agreement.** Without a lease in place, the credit assessment stays hypothetical. A long-term lease with indexed escalation is a positive signal — it converts uncertain future revenue into something closer to contracted income on the credit committee's worksheet.
 
-**Monthly cashflow model for Year 1.** Lenders do not expect monthly forecasts to be accurate. They use them to assess whether you have thought through the ramp-up — the timing of fit-out completion, the month of first bookings, the staffing build-out. A monthly model signals operational seriousness.
+**Monthly cash flow model for Year 1.** Lenders do not expect monthly forecasts to be accurate. They use them to assess whether you have thought through the ramp-up — the timing of fit-out completion, the month of first bookings, the staffing build-out. A monthly model signals operational seriousness.
 
 **Sensitivity analysis.** Show three scenarios: base case (45–60% utilization), downside (35%), and stress (25%). If your project only works at optimistic assumptions, that is important information — for you, not just for the bank.
 
@@ -183,8 +187,8 @@ A dedicated article on structuring a padel hall business plan and navigating Ger
 
 ## Bottom Line
 
-Opening a padel hall in Germany in 2026 is a real capital commitment: €930k on the low end, €1.9M at the top, with €1.2–1.5M as the honest planning figure for a solid six-court operation. The economics, modelled carefully, are genuinely attractive — payback in 3–5 years, 60%+ cash-on-cash return at maturity, and a market that continues to grow.
+Opening a padel hall in Germany in 2026 is a real capital commitment: €930k on the low end, €1.9M at the top, with €1.2–1.5M as the honest planning figure for a solid six-court operation. The economics, done right, are genuinely attractive — payback in 3–5 years, 60%+ cash-on-cash return at maturity, and a market that continues to grow.
 
-The investors who succeed in this space are not the ones who found a cheaper build. They are the ones who understood the numbers precisely enough to make the right location and concept decisions early — and to structure their financing before the costs escalated.
+The investors who succeed here are not the ones who found a cheaper build. They are the ones who understood the numbers precisely enough to make the right location and concept decisions early — and to structure their financing before the costs escalated.
 
-**Next step:** Use the Padelnomics Financial Planner to model your specific scenario — your city, your financing mix, your pricing assumptions. The model above is the starting point. Your hall deserves a projection built around your actual numbers.
+**Next step:** Use the Padelnomics Financial Planner to model your specific scenario — your city, your financing mix, your pricing assumptions. The figures in this article are your starting point; your hall deserves a projection built around your actual numbers.

data/content/articles/padel-hall-financing-germany-en.md

@@ -121,6 +121,8 @@ Every state has a development bank: Investitionsbank Schleswig-Holstein, Thürin
 
 ## Personal Guarantee Reality: Don't Avoid This Conversation
 
+Once the debt structure is in place, there is one more item that belongs in every financing conversation — and that is too often skipped until the term sheet arrives.
+
 German banks financing a padel hall through a standalone project company will almost always require **persönliche Bürgschaft** (personal guarantee) from the founders. This means your personal assets — home, savings, existing investments — are at risk if the business fails.
 
 Three ways to limit this exposure:

data/content/articles/padel-hall-investment-risks-en.md

@@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ Squash followed a strikingly similar pattern in the 1980s: grassroots boom, infr
 
 The counterargument has real merit: padel requires permanent, fixed courts. That infrastructure creates genuine stickiness that squash never had — players build habits, drive to a venue, become regulars. Padel is also demonstrably more accessible and social than squash, which supports long-term participation. German player numbers show no plateau effect yet.
 
-Even so: if utilization falls from 65% to 35% in year five because hype fades, your model breaks. That scenario is largely unhedgeable — but it can be modeled. What does your P&L look like at 40% utilization sustained for two years? Can your financing structure survive it? If you haven't answered that question, you're not done with your business plan.
+Even so — if utilization falls from 65% to 35% in year five because hype fades, your model breaks. That scenario is largely unhedgeable — but it can be modeled. What does your P&L look like at 40% utilization sustained for two years? Can your financing structure survive it? If you haven't answered that question, you're not done with your business plan.
 
 ---
 
@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ When a new competitor opens ten minutes away in year three, you feel it in utili
 
 Padel has no real moat. No patents, no network effects, no meaningful switching costs. What you have is location, the community you've built, and service quality — genuine advantages, but ones that require continuous investment to maintain.
 
-**The right move is to model this explicitly.** What does your P&L look like when a competitor opens in year three and takes 20% of your demand? What operational responses are available — pricing, loyalty programs, corporate contracts, additional programming? Having thought through the competitive response in advance means you won't be improvising when it happens.
+**Model this explicitly.** What does your P&L look like when a competitor opens in year three and takes 20% of your demand? What operational responses are available — pricing, loyalty programs, corporate contracts, additional programming? Thinking through the competitive response in advance means you won't be improvising when it happens.
 
 ---
 
@@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ Good facility managers, coaches who combine technical skill with genuine hospita
 
 Courts need replacing. Artificial turf has a lifespan of five to eight years. Glass panels and framework require regular inspection and periodic replacement. If this isn't in your long-term financial model, you're looking at a significant unplanned capital call in year six or seven. Budget a per-court annual refurbishment reserve — and set it conservatively above zero.
 
-**A note on F&B:** Running a café or bar inside your facility is an entirely different business — different skills, thin margins, and separate regulatory requirements. If food and beverage is part of your concept, outsourcing to a dedicated operator deserves serious consideration before you commit to running it in-house.
+**A note on F&B:** Running a café or bar inside your facility is an entirely different business — different skills, thin margins, and separate regulatory requirements. If food and beverage is part of your concept, outsourcing to a dedicated operator deserves serious consideration before committing to running it in-house.
 
 ---
 

data/content/articles/padel-hall-location-guide-en.md

@@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ Key checks before committing to a site:
 
 ## The Site Scoring Framework: From 8 Criteria to a Decision
 
-Anyone evaluating multiple sites in parallel needs a comparison tool. A weighted scoring matrix works well: each criterion is rated 1–5 and multiplied by a weighting factor.
+Any investor evaluating multiple sites in parallel needs a comparison tool. A weighted scoring matrix works well: each criterion is rated 1–5 and multiplied by a weighting factor.
 
 A suggested weighting:
 

data/content/articles/padel-halle-bauen-de.md

@@ -122,7 +122,7 @@ Mit dem detaillierten Businessplan gehen Sie zu Banken und ggf. Fördermittelgeb
 - 50–70 Prozent Fremdkapital (Bankdarlehen)
 - 30–50 Prozent Eigenkapital (eigene Mittel, stille Beteiligungen, Gesellschafterdarlehen)
 
-Was Banken sehen wollen: belastbares Finanzmodell, Sicherheiten, Ihr persönliches Track Record, und — fast immer — eine persönliche Bürgschaft. (Mehr dazu im separaten Artikel zu Investitionsrisiken.)
+Was Banken sehen wollen: belastbares Finanzmodell, Sicherheiten, Ihr persönlicher Track Record, und — fast immer — eine persönliche Bürgschaft. Der separate Artikel zu Investitionsrisiken behandelt das Thema Bürgschaftsexposition ausführlich.
 
 Klären Sie Förderprogramme: KfW-Mittel, Landesförderbanken und kommunale Sportförderprogramme können den Eigenkapitalbedarf oder die Zinsbelastung reduzieren. Diese Recherche lohnt sich.
 
@@ -251,6 +251,8 @@ Wer Dutzende Padelhallenprojekte in Europa beobachtet, sieht Muster auf beiden S
 
 **Die Projekte, die langfristig erfolgreich sind**, haben alle drei Phasen — Planung, Bau, Eröffnung — mit derselben Sorgfalt behandelt und früh in Community und Stammkundschaft investiert.
 
+Eine Padelhalle zu bauen ist komplex — aber kein ungelöstes Problem. Die Fehler, die Projekte scheitern lassen, sind fast immer dieselben. Genauso wie die Entscheidungen, die sie gelingen lassen.
+
 ---
 
 ## Planer und Lieferanten finden

data/content/articles/padel-halle-finanzierung-de.md

@@ -159,6 +159,8 @@ Der Kapitaldienstdeckungsgrad (DSCR) auf den Bankkredit (€700k, 5 %, 10 Jahre
 
 ## Das persönliche Risiko: Bürgschaften offen ansprechen
 
+Steht die Fremdkapitalstruktur, bleibt eine Frage, die in fast jedem Finanzierungsgespräch zu spät gestellt wird — und die zu oft erst auf dem Konditionenblatt der Bank auftaucht.
+
 Banken werden für eine Padelhalle, die eine eigenständige Projektgesellschaft ist, fast immer eine **persönliche Bürgschaft** des Gründers fordern. Das bedeutet: Ihre privaten Vermögenswerte — Eigenheim, Ersparnisse, Beteiligungen — haften im Zweifelsfall.
 
 Es gibt drei Wege, dieses Risiko zu begrenzen:

data/content/articles/padel-halle-kosten-de.md

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ cornerstone: C2
 
 # Padel Halle Kosten 2026: Die komplette CAPEX-Aufstellung
 
-Wer ernsthaft über eine Padelhalle nachdenkt, bekommt auf die Frage nach den Kosten zunächst eine frustrierende Antwort: "Das kommt drauf an." Und ja — die Spanne ist tatsächlich enorm. Je nach Standort, Konzept und Bausubstanz liegen die Gesamtinvestitionskosten für eine sechsstellige Anlage zwischen **€930.000 und €1,9 Millionen**. Diese Streuung ist kein Zufall, sondern Ausdruck ganz konkreter Entscheidungen, die Sie als Investor treffen werden.
+Wer eine Padelhalle plant, bekommt auf die Kostenfrage zunächst eine frustrierende Antwort: „Das kommt drauf an." Und ja — die Spanne ist tatsächlich enorm. Je nach Standort, Konzept und Bausubstanz liegen die Gesamtinvestitionskosten für eine sechsstellige Anlage zwischen **€930.000 und €1,9 Millionen**. Diese Streuung ist kein Zufall, sondern Ausdruck ganz konkreter Entscheidungen, die Sie als Investor treffen werden.
 
 Dieser Artikel schlüsselt die vollständige Investition auf — von der Bausubstanz über Platztechnik und Ausstattung bis hin zu Betriebskosten, Standortmieten und einer belastbaren 3-Jahres-Ergebnisprognose. Alle Zahlen basieren auf realen deutschen Marktdaten aus 2025/2026. Das Ziel: Sie sollen nach der Lektüre in der Lage sein, eine erste realistische Wirtschaftlichkeitsrechnung für Ihre konkrete Situation aufzustellen — und wissen, welche Fragen Sie Ihrer Bank stellen müssen.
 
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ Dieser Artikel schlüsselt die vollständige Investition auf — von der Bausubs
 
 Warum liegen €930.000 und €1,9 Millionen so weit auseinander? Der größte Einzeltreiber ist der bauliche Aufwand. Wer eine bestehende Gewerbehalle — etwa einen ehemaligen Produktions- oder Logistikbau — kostengünstig anmieten und mit minimalem Umbau bespielen kann, landet am unteren Ende der Spanne. Wer dagegen auf grüner Wiese baut oder ein Gebäude von Grund auf saniert, zahlt entsprechend mehr.
 
-Dazu kommt der Standortfaktor. In München oder Berlin kostet dasselbe Objekt in der Miete 40–60 % mehr als in Leipzig oder Kassel. Das drückt sich nicht nur in der laufenden OPEX aus, sondern auch in der Kaution und dem nötigen Working-Capital-Puffer — beides Teil der initialen CAPEX.
+Dazu kommt der Standortfaktor. In München oder Berlin kostet dasselbe Objekt in vergleichbaren Marktsegmenten 40–60 % mehr als in Leipzig oder Kassel — an den Extremen fällt der Abstand erheblich größer aus. Das schlägt sich nicht nur in der laufenden OPEX nieder, sondern auch in der Kaution und dem nötigen Working-Capital-Puffer — beides Teil der initialen CAPEX.
 
 Realistischer Planungsansatz für eine **6-Court-Innenhalle** mit solider Ausstattung: **€1,2–1,5 Millionen Gesamtinvestition**. Wer mit deutlich weniger kalkuliert, unterschätzt in der Regel einen der drei teuersten Posten: Bau/Umbau, Lüftungstechnik oder den Kapitalpuffer für den Anlauf.
 
@@ -56,6 +56,8 @@ Die folgende Tabelle zeigt die typischen Bandbreiten für eine sechsstellige Inn
 
 ## Hallenmiete in Deutschland: Was Sie nach Standort zahlen
 
+Bau und Courts binden den größten Teil des Startkapitals. Was über die langfristige Wirtschaftlichkeit entscheidet, zahlen Sie monatlich: die Miete.
+
 Eine 6-Court-Halle benötigt je nach Konzept (Nebenräume, Lounge, Pro Shop) eine Fläche von **1.500 bis 2.500 qm**. Auf Basis aktueller Gewerberaummieten für Industrie- und Hallenflächen in deutschen Städten ergibt sich folgende Einschätzung:
 
 | Stadt | Miete €/qm/Monat | Typische Monatsmiete (2.000 qm) |
@@ -69,15 +71,15 @@ Eine 6-Court-Halle benötigt je nach Konzept (Nebenräume, Lounge, Pro Shop) ein
 | Stuttgart | €7–10 | €14.000–€20.000 |
 | Leipzig | €4–7 | €8.000–€14.000 |
 
-In Hochpreislagen Berlins (Mitte, Prenzlauer Berg) oder Münchens (Schwabing, Maxvorstadt) liegen die Preise auch für Gewerbehallen teils noch darüber. Die in der OPEX-Tabelle verwendete Jahresmiete von €120.000 entspricht einer Monatsmiete von €10.000 — das ist ein realistischer Wert für eine mittelgroße deutsche Stadt mit einem Standort leicht außerhalb der Innenstadt.
+In Hochpreislagen Berlins (Mitte, Prenzlauer Berg) oder Münchens (Schwabing, Maxvorstadt) liegen die Preise auch für Gewerbehallen teils noch darüber. Die in der OPEX-Tabelle verwendete Jahresmiete von €120.000 entspricht einer Monatsmiete von €10.000 — das ist ein realistischer Wert für eine mittelgroße deutsche Stadt mit einem Standort leicht außerhalb der Innenstadt. Für München oder Berlin kalkulieren Sie mit den Werten aus der Stadtübersicht oben — und passen Sie die Erlösannahme entsprechend an.
 
-Ein Hinweis zur Mietstruktur: Viele Vermieter verlangen bei Hallenflächen eine Laufzeit von mindestens 5–10 Jahren, oft mit Verlängerungsoptionen. Das bindet Sie, schafft aber auch Planungssicherheit für die Finanzierung. Banken bewerten einen langen Mietvertrag mit festen Konditionen positiv.
+Ein Hinweis zur Mietstruktur: Viele Vermieter verlangen bei Hallenflächen eine Laufzeit von mindestens 5–10 Jahren, oft mit Verlängerungsoptionen. Das bindet Sie, schafft aber auch Planungssicherheit für die Finanzierung. Ein langfristiger Mietvertrag mit indexierter Staffelung ist für die Bank ein echtes Positivsignal — er macht aus unsicheren künftigen Einnahmen etwas, das im Kreditbescheid wie planbarer Cashflow aussieht.
 
 ---
 
 ## Platzbuchungspreise: Was der Markt trägt
 
-Die Mietpreise sind das Fundament Ihrer Ertragsrechnung. Hier die aktuellen Marktpreise nach Stadt, basierend auf Plattformdaten und direkten Hallenerhebungen:
+Das Ertragspotenzial folgt der Standortlogik ähnlich eng wie die Mietkosten. Hier die aktuellen Marktpreise nach Stadt, basierend auf Plattformdaten und direkten Hallenerhebungen:
 
 | Stadt | Nebenzeiten (€/Std.) | Hauptzeiten (€/Std.) | Datenbasis |
 |---|---|---|---|
@@ -167,7 +169,7 @@ Bei einem Darlehen von €800.000 (z. B. KfW oder Hausbank), 5 % Zinsen und 10 J
 
 ## Was Banken wirklich wollen
 
-Eine Padelhalle ist für die meisten Bankberater ein ungewohntes Investitionsobjekt. Was zählt, ist nicht die Begeisterung für Padel — sondern die Qualität Ihrer Zahlengrundlage.
+Eine Padelhalle ist für die meisten Bankberater unbekanntes Terrain. Auslastungsquoten und Erlöse pro Court sind keine Größen, mit denen Kreditausschüsse täglich arbeiten — das ist Ihr Vorteil. Wer mit sauberen Zahlen und strukturierter Dokumentation ins Gespräch geht, fällt sofort positiv auf. Was den Kreditausschuss bewegt, ist nicht die Begeisterung für den Sport, sondern die Belastbarkeit der Unterlagen.
 
 **Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) 1,2–1,5x:** Die Bank will sehen, dass Ihr operativer Cashflow den Schuldendienst mit einem Puffer von 20–50 % abdeckt. Mit einem EBITDA von €310.000 im ersten Jahr und einem Schuldendienst von €102.000 liegt der DSCR bei 3,0 — auf dem Papier sehr solide. Aber: Banken werden nachfragen, wie empfindlich dieses Ergebnis auf niedrigere Auslastung reagiert.
 
@@ -185,6 +187,6 @@ Wie Sie einen vollständigen Businessplan strukturieren und welche Unterlagen Ba
 
 Die Kosten für eine Padelhalle sind real und erheblich — €930.000 bis €1,9 Millionen, realistischer Mittelpunkt €1,2–1,5 Millionen. Wer diese Zahlen kennt und versteht, wo die Hebel sitzen, kann daraus ein belastbares Investitionsmodell bauen. Wer mit Schätzungen aus zweiter Hand ins Bankgespräch geht, verliert Zeit und Glaubwürdigkeit.
 
-Die Wirtschaftlichkeit stimmt: Bei konservativen Annahmen und solider Betriebsführung ist die Amortisation in 3–5 Jahren realistisch. Der deutsche Padel-Markt wächst weiter — aber mit wachsendem Angebot steigen auch die Erwartungen der Spieler und die Anforderungen an Konzept, Lage und Service.
+Richtig aufgesetzt, stimmt die Wirtschaftlichkeit: Bei konservativen Annahmen und solider Betriebsführung ist die Amortisation in 3–5 Jahren realistisch. Der deutsche Padel-Markt wächst weiter — aber mit wachsendem Angebot steigen auch die Erwartungen der Spieler und die Anforderungen an Konzept, Lage und Service.
 
-**Nächster Schritt:** Nutzen Sie den Padelnomics Financial Planner, um Ihre spezifische Konstellation durchzurechnen — mit Ihrem Standort, Ihrer Finanzierungsstruktur und Ihren Preisannahmen. Das Modell oben ist der Einstieg. Ihre Halle verdient eine maßgeschneiderte Kalkulation.
+**Nächster Schritt:** Nutzen Sie den Padelnomics Financial Planner, um Ihre spezifische Konstellation durchzurechnen — mit Ihrem Standort, Ihrer Finanzierungsstruktur und Ihren Preisannahmen. Die Zahlen in diesem Artikel sind Ihr Ausgangspunkt — Ihre Halle verdient eine Kalkulation, die auf Ihren tatsächlichen Rahmenbedingungen aufbaut.

data/content/articles/padel-halle-risiken-de.md

@@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ Wenn in Jahr drei ein neuer Wettbewerber 10 Fahrminuten entfernt aufmacht, ist I
 
 Einen echten Burggraben gibt es im Padel-Geschäft kaum. Keine Patente, keine Netzwerkeffekte, keine Wechselkosten. Was bleibt, ist: Standort, Gemeinschaft, Servicequalität und die Beziehung zu Stammkunden. Das sind reale Vorteile — aber sie müssen aktiv aufgebaut und gepflegt werden.
 
-**Was Sie jetzt schon tun können:** Modellieren Sie im Businessplan explizit das Szenario "neuer Wettbewerber in Jahr drei". Was ändert sich? Wie reagieren Sie? Welche Maßnahmen senken die Auslastungsschwelle für Profitabilität?
+**Rechnen Sie das durch.** Modellieren Sie im Businessplan explizit das Szenario „neuer Wettbewerber in Jahr drei". Was ändert sich? Wie reagieren Sie? Welche Maßnahmen senken die Auslastungsschwelle für Profitabilität?
 
 ---
 

docker-compose.prod.yml

@@ -59,10 +59,10 @@ services:
     env_file: ./.env
     environment:
       - DATABASE_PATH=/app/data/app.db
-      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/analytics.duckdb
+      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/pipeline/analytics.duckdb
     volumes:
       - app-data:/app/data
-      - /data/padelnomics/analytics.duckdb:/app/data/analytics.duckdb:ro
+      - /opt/padelnomics/data:/app/data/pipeline:ro
     networks:
       - net
     healthcheck:
@@ -81,10 +81,10 @@ services:
     env_file: ./.env
     environment:
       - DATABASE_PATH=/app/data/app.db
-      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/analytics.duckdb
+      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/pipeline/analytics.duckdb
     volumes:
       - app-data:/app/data
-      - /data/padelnomics/analytics.duckdb:/app/data/analytics.duckdb:ro
+      - /opt/padelnomics/data:/app/data/pipeline:ro
     networks:
       - net
 
@@ -97,10 +97,10 @@ services:
     env_file: ./.env
     environment:
       - DATABASE_PATH=/app/data/app.db
-      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/analytics.duckdb
+      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/pipeline/analytics.duckdb
     volumes:
       - app-data:/app/data
-      - /data/padelnomics/analytics.duckdb:/app/data/analytics.duckdb:ro
+      - /opt/padelnomics/data:/app/data/pipeline:ro
     networks:
       - net
 
@@ -114,10 +114,10 @@ services:
     env_file: ./.env
     environment:
       - DATABASE_PATH=/app/data/app.db
-      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/analytics.duckdb
+      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/pipeline/analytics.duckdb
     volumes:
       - app-data:/app/data
-      - /data/padelnomics/analytics.duckdb:/app/data/analytics.duckdb:ro
+      - /opt/padelnomics/data:/app/data/pipeline:ro
     networks:
       - net
     healthcheck:
@@ -136,10 +136,10 @@ services:
     env_file: ./.env
     environment:
       - DATABASE_PATH=/app/data/app.db
-      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/analytics.duckdb
+      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/pipeline/analytics.duckdb
     volumes:
       - app-data:/app/data
-      - /data/padelnomics/analytics.duckdb:/app/data/analytics.duckdb:ro
+      - /opt/padelnomics/data:/app/data/pipeline:ro
     networks:
       - net
 
@@ -152,10 +152,10 @@ services:
     env_file: ./.env
     environment:
       - DATABASE_PATH=/app/data/app.db
-      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/analytics.duckdb
+      - SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH=/app/data/pipeline/analytics.duckdb
     volumes:
       - app-data:/app/data
-      - /data/padelnomics/analytics.duckdb:/app/data/analytics.duckdb:ro
+      - /opt/padelnomics/data:/app/data/pipeline:ro
     networks:
       - net
 

src/padelnomics/supervisor.py

@@ -17,14 +17,12 @@ Usage:
 """
 
 import importlib
-import json
 import logging
 import os
 import subprocess
 import sys
 import time
 import tomllib
-import urllib.request
 from collections import defaultdict
 from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor, as_completed
 from datetime import UTC, datetime
@@ -269,14 +267,46 @@ def run_export() -> None:
         send_alert(f"[export] {err}")
 
 
+_last_seen_head: str | None = None
+
+
 def web_code_changed() -> bool:
-    """Check if web app code or secrets changed since last deploy (after git pull)."""
+    """True on the first tick after a commit that changed web app code or secrets.
+
+    Compares the current HEAD to the HEAD from the previous tick.  On first call
+    after process start (e.g. after os.execv reloads new code), falls back to
+    HEAD~1 so the just-deployed commit is evaluated exactly once.
+
+    Records HEAD before returning so the same commit never triggers twice.
+    """
+    global _last_seen_head
     result = subprocess.run(
-        ["git", "diff", "--name-only", "HEAD~1", "HEAD", "--",
+        ["git", "rev-parse", "HEAD"], capture_output=True, text=True, timeout=10,
+    )
+    if result.returncode != 0:
+        return False
+    current_head = result.stdout.strip()
+
+    if _last_seen_head is None:
+        # Fresh process — use HEAD~1 as base (evaluates the newly deployed tag).
+        base_result = subprocess.run(
+            ["git", "rev-parse", "HEAD~1"], capture_output=True, text=True, timeout=10,
+        )
+        base = base_result.stdout.strip() if base_result.returncode == 0 else current_head
+    else:
+        base = _last_seen_head
+
+    _last_seen_head = current_head  # advance now — won't fire again for this HEAD
+
+    if base == current_head:
+        return False
+
+    diff = subprocess.run(
+        ["git", "diff", "--name-only", base, current_head, "--",
          "web/", "Dockerfile", ".env.prod.sops"],
         capture_output=True, text=True, timeout=30,
     )
-    return bool(result.stdout.strip())
+    return bool(diff.stdout.strip())
 
 
 def current_deployed_tag() -> str | None:

web/src/padelnomics/admin/routes.py

@@ -3373,6 +3373,31 @@ async def affiliate_results():
     )
 
 
+@bp.route("/affiliate/preview", methods=["POST"])
+@role_required("admin")
+@csrf_protect
+async def affiliate_preview():
+    """Render a product card fragment from form data — used by live preview HTMX."""
+    from ..content.routes import _bake_env
+    from ..i18n import get_translations
+
+    form = await request.form
+    data = _form_to_product(form)
+    lang = data["language"] or "de"
+
+    # Convert JSON-string pros/cons to lists for the template
+    product = dict(data)
+    product["pros"] = json.loads(product["pros"]) if product["pros"] else []
+    product["cons"] = json.loads(product["cons"]) if product["cons"] else []
+
+    if not product["name"]:
+        return "<p style='color:#94A3B8;font-size:.875rem;padding:.5rem 0'>Fill in the form to see a preview.</p>"
+
+    tmpl = _bake_env.get_template("partials/product_card.html")
+    html = tmpl.render(product=product, t=get_translations(lang), lang=lang)
+    return html
+
+
 @bp.route("/affiliate/new", methods=["GET", "POST"])
 @role_required("admin")
 @csrf_protect

web/src/padelnomics/admin/templates/admin/affiliate_form.html

@@ -36,14 +36,20 @@ document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function() {
     </div>
   </header>
 
+  {# HTMX preview trigger — outside the grid so it takes no layout space #}
+  <div style="display:none"
+       hx-post="{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_preview') }}"
+       hx-target="#product-preview"
+       hx-trigger="load, input from:#affiliate-form delay:600ms"
+       hx-include="#affiliate-form"
+       hx-push-url="false">
+  </div>
+
   <div style="display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 380px;gap:2rem;align-items:start" class="affiliate-form-grid">
 
     {# ── Left: form ── #}
     <form method="post" id="affiliate-form"
-          hx-post="{% if editing %}{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_edit', product_id=product_id) }}{% else %}{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_new') }}{% endif %}"
-          hx-target="#product-preview"
-          hx-trigger="input delay:600ms"
-          hx-push-url="false">
+          action="{% if editing %}{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_edit', product_id=product_id) }}{% else %}{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_new') }}{% endif %}">
       <input type="hidden" name="csrf_token" value="{{ csrf_token() }}">
 
       <div class="card" style="padding:1.5rem;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:1.25rem;">
@@ -200,9 +206,7 @@ document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function() {
     <div style="position:sticky;top:1.5rem;">
       <div class="text-xs font-semibold text-slate mb-2" style="text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.06em;">Preview</div>
       <div id="product-preview" style="border:1px solid #E2E8F0;border-radius:12px;padding:1rem;background:#F8FAFC;min-height:180px;">
-        <p class="text-slate text-sm" style="text-align:center;margin-top:2rem;">
-          Fill in the form to see a live preview.
-        </p>
+        <p style="color:#94A3B8;font-size:.875rem;text-align:center;margin-top:2rem;">Loading preview…</p>
       </div>
     </div>
 

web/src/padelnomics/admin/templates/admin/base_admin.html

@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@
   'suppliers': 'suppliers',
   'articles': 'content', 'scenarios': 'content', 'templates': 'content', 'pseo': 'content',
   'emails': 'email', 'inbox': 'email', 'compose': 'email', 'gallery': 'email', 'audiences': 'email', 'outreach': 'email',
-  'affiliate': 'affiliate',
+  'affiliate': 'affiliate', 'affiliate_dashboard': 'affiliate',
   'billing': 'billing',
   'seo': 'analytics',
   'pipeline': 'pipeline',
@@ -150,7 +150,7 @@
         Billing
       </a>
 
-      <a href="{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_products') }}" class="{% if active_section == 'affiliate' %}active{% endif %}">
+      <a href="{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_dashboard') }}" class="{% if active_section == 'affiliate' %}active{% endif %}">
         <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" d="M13.5 21v-7.5a.75.75 0 0 1 .75-.75h3a.75.75 0 0 1 .75.75V21m-4.5 0H2.36m11.14 0H18m0 0h3.64m-1.39 0V9.349M3.75 21V9.349m0 0a3.001 3.001 0 0 0 3.75-.615A2.993 2.993 0 0 0 9.75 9.75c.896 0 1.7-.393 2.25-1.016a2.993 2.993 0 0 0 2.25 1.016 2.993 2.993 0 0 0 2.25-1.016 3.001 3.001 0 0 0 3.75.614m-16.5 0a3.004 3.004 0 0 1-.621-4.72l1.189-1.19A1.5 1.5 0 0 1 5.378 3h13.243a1.5 1.5 0 0 1 1.06.44l1.19 1.189a3 3 0 0 1-.621 4.72M6.75 18h3.75a.75.75 0 0 0 .75-.75V13.5a.75.75 0 0 0-.75-.75H6.75a.75.75 0 0 0-.75.75v3.75c0 .414.336.75.75.75Z"/></svg>
         Affiliate
       </a>
@@ -204,8 +204,8 @@
     </nav>
     {% elif active_section == 'affiliate' %}
     <nav class="admin-subnav">
-      <a href="{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_products') }}" class="{% if admin_page == 'affiliate' %}active{% endif %}">Products</a>
       <a href="{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_dashboard') }}" class="{% if admin_page == 'affiliate_dashboard' %}active{% endif %}">Dashboard</a>
+      <a href="{{ url_for('admin.affiliate_products') }}" class="{% if admin_page == 'affiliate' %}active{% endif %}">Products</a>
     </nav>
     {% elif active_section == 'system' %}
     <nav class="admin-subnav">

web/src/padelnomics/admin/templates/admin/partials/article_group_row.html

@@ -6,15 +6,19 @@
   <td>
     {% for v in g.variants %}
     <div class="variant-row">
-      <a href="{{ url_for('admin.article_edit', article_id=v.id) }}"
+      {% if v.display_status == 'live' %}
+      <a href="/{{ v.language or 'en' }}{{ v.url_path }}" target="_blank"
          class="lang-chip lang-chip-{{ v.display_status }}"
-         title="Edit {{ v.language|upper }} variant">
+         title="View live {{ v.language|upper }} article">
         <span class="dot"></span>{{ v.language | upper }}
         {% if v.noindex %}<span class="noindex-tag">noindex</span>{% endif %}
       </a>
-      {% if v.display_status == 'live' %}
-      <a href="/{{ v.language or 'en' }}{{ v.url_path }}" target="_blank"
-         class="btn-outline btn-sm view-lang-btn" title="View live article">View ↗</a>
+      {% else %}
+      <span class="lang-chip lang-chip-{{ v.display_status }}"
+            title="{{ v.display_status | capitalize }}">
+        <span class="dot"></span>{{ v.language | upper }}
+        {% if v.noindex %}<span class="noindex-tag">noindex</span>{% endif %}
+      </span>
       {% endif %}
       <a href="{{ url_for('admin.article_edit', article_id=v.id) }}"
          class="btn-outline btn-sm view-lang-btn">Edit</a>

web/src/padelnomics/analytics.py

@@ -4,6 +4,10 @@ DuckDB read-only analytics reader.
 Opens a single long-lived DuckDB connection at startup (read_only=True).
 All queries run via asyncio.to_thread() to avoid blocking the event loop.
 
+When export_serving.py atomically renames a new analytics.duckdb into place,
+_check_and_reopen() detects the inode change and transparently reopens —
+no app restart required.
+
 Usage:
     from .analytics import fetch_analytics, execute_user_query
 
@@ -14,6 +18,7 @@ Usage:
 import asyncio
 import logging
 import os
+import threading
 import time
 from pathlib import Path
 from typing import Any
@@ -21,6 +26,8 @@ from typing import Any
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 _conn = None  # duckdb.DuckDBPyConnection | None — lazy import
+_conn_inode: int | None = None
+_reopen_lock = threading.Lock()
 _DUCKDB_PATH = os.environ.get("SERVING_DUCKDB_PATH", "data/analytics.duckdb")
 
 # DuckDB queries run in the asyncio thread pool. Cap them so a slow scan
@@ -32,20 +39,67 @@ def open_analytics_db() -> None:
     """Open the DuckDB connection. Call once at app startup."""
     import duckdb
 
-    global _conn
+    global _conn, _conn_inode
     path = Path(_DUCKDB_PATH)
     if not path.exists():
         # Database doesn't exist yet — skip silently. Queries will return empty.
         return
     _conn = duckdb.connect(str(path), read_only=True)
+    _conn_inode = path.stat().st_ino
 
 
 def close_analytics_db() -> None:
     """Close the DuckDB connection. Call at app shutdown."""
-    global _conn
+    global _conn, _conn_inode
     if _conn is not None:
         _conn.close()
         _conn = None
+        _conn_inode = None
+
+
+def _check_and_reopen() -> None:
+    """Reopen the connection if analytics.duckdb was atomically replaced (new inode).
+
+    Called at the start of each query. Requires a directory bind mount (not a file
+    bind mount) so that os.stat() inside the container sees the new inode after rename.
+    """
+    global _conn, _conn_inode
+    import duckdb
+
+    path = Path(_DUCKDB_PATH)
+    try:
+        current_inode = path.stat().st_ino
+    except OSError:
+        return
+
+    if current_inode == _conn_inode:
+        return  # same file — nothing to do
+
+    with _reopen_lock:
+        # Double-check under lock to avoid concurrent reopens.
+        try:
+            current_inode = path.stat().st_ino
+        except OSError:
+            return
+        if current_inode == _conn_inode:
+            return
+
+        old_conn = _conn
+        try:
+            new_conn = duckdb.connect(str(path), read_only=True)
+        except Exception:
+            logger.exception("Failed to reopen analytics DB after file change")
+            return
+
+        _conn = new_conn
+        _conn_inode = current_inode
+        logger.info("Analytics DB reopened (inode changed to %d)", current_inode)
+
+        if old_conn is not None:
+            try:
+                old_conn.close()
+            except Exception:
+                pass
 
 
 async def fetch_analytics(sql: str, params: list | None = None) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
@@ -61,7 +115,11 @@ async def fetch_analytics(sql: str, params: list | None = None) -> list[dict[str
         return []
 
     def _run() -> list[dict]:
-        cur = _conn.cursor()
+        _check_and_reopen()
+        conn = _conn
+        if conn is None:
+            return []
+        cur = conn.cursor()
         try:
             rel = cur.execute(sql, params or [])
             cols = [d[0] for d in rel.description]
@@ -104,8 +162,12 @@ async def execute_user_query(
         return [], [], "Analytics database is not available.", 0.0
 
     def _run() -> tuple[list[str], list[tuple], str | None, float]:
+        _check_and_reopen()
+        conn = _conn
+        if conn is None:
+            return [], [], "Analytics database is not available.", 0.0
         t0 = time.monotonic()
-        cur = _conn.cursor()
+        cur = conn.cursor()
         try:
             rel = cur.execute(sql)
             cols = [d[0] for d in rel.description]

web/src/padelnomics/content/templates/city-cost-de.md.jinja

@@ -181,7 +181,7 @@ Der **Market Score ({{ market_score | round(1) }}/100)** misst die *Marktreife*:
 
 {{ city_name }} has a **<a href="/{{ language }}/market-score" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',sans-serif;font-weight:800;color:#0F172A;letter-spacing:-0.02em">padelnomics</span> Market Score</a> of {{ market_score | round(1) }}/100** — placing it{% if market_score >= 55 %} among the strongest padel markets in {{ country_name_en }}{% elif market_score >= 35 %} in the mid-tier of {{ country_name_en }}'s padel markets{% else %} in an early-stage padel market with room for growth{% endif %}. The city currently has **{{ padel_venue_count }} padel venues** serving a population of {% if population >= 1000000 %}{{ (population / 1000000) | round(1) }}M{% else %}{{ (population / 1000) | round(0) | int }}K{% endif %} residents — a density of {{ venues_per_100k | round(1) }} venues per 100,000 people.{% if opportunity_score %} The **<a href="/{{ language }}/market-score" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',sans-serif;font-weight:800;color:#0F172A;letter-spacing:-0.02em">padelnomics</span> Opportunity Score</a> of {{ opportunity_score | round(1) }}/100** scores investment potential — supply gaps, catchment reach, and sports culture as a demand proxy:{% if opportunity_score >= 65 and market_score < 40 %} limited competition meets strong location fundamentals{% elif opportunity_score >= 65 %} strong potential despite an already active market{% elif opportunity_score >= 40 %} solid potential as the market starts to fill in{% else %} the area is comparatively well-served; differentiation is the key lever{% endif %}.{% endif %}
 
-The question investors actually need answered is: given current pricing, occupancy, and build costs, what does the return look like? The financial model below uses real {{ city_name }} market data to give you that answer.
+The question that matters: given current pricing, occupancy, and build costs, what does a padel investment in {{ city_name }} actually return? The financial model below works with real local market data.
 
 ## What Does a Padel Investment Cost in {{ city_name }}?
 

web/src/padelnomics/content/templates/country-overview.md.jinja

@@ -178,7 +178,7 @@ Der **Market Score (Ø {{ avg_market_score }}/100)** bewertet die Marktreife: Be
 
 Padel is growing rapidly across {{ country_name_en }}. Our data tracks {{ total_venues }} venues — a figure that likely understates the true count given independent clubs not listed on booking platforms. The average <span style="font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',sans-serif;font-weight:800;color:#0F172A;letter-spacing:-0.02em">padelnomics</span> Market Score of {{ avg_market_score }}/100 across {{ city_count }} cities reflects both market maturity and data availability.
 
-{% if avg_market_score >= 55 %}Markets scoring above 55 typically show an established player base, reliable pricing data, and predictable demand patterns — all critical for sound financial planning. Yet even in mature markets, venue density per 100,000 residents varies significantly between cities, pointing to pockets of underserved demand.{% elif avg_market_score >= 35 %}A mid-range score signals a growth phase: demand is proven, venue infrastructure is building, and pricing hasn't fully settled to competitive levels. This creates opportunities for well-positioned new entrants who can secure good locations before the market matures.{% else %}Emerging markets offer first-mover advantages — less direct competition, potentially better lease terms, and the opportunity to build a loyal player base before the market fills out. The trade-off is less pricing data and more uncertainty in demand projections.{% endif %}
+{% if avg_market_score >= 55 %}Markets scoring above 55 typically show an established player base, reliable pricing data, and predictable demand patterns — all critical for sound financial planning. Yet even in mature markets, venue density per 100,000 residents varies significantly between cities, leaving genuine supply gaps even in established markets.{% elif avg_market_score >= 35 %}A mid-range score signals a growth phase: demand is proven, venue infrastructure is building, and pricing hasn't fully settled to competitive levels. This creates opportunities for well-positioned new entrants who can secure good locations before the market matures.{% else %}Emerging markets offer first-mover advantages — less direct competition, potentially better lease terms, and the opportunity to build a loyal player base before the market fills out. The trade-off is less pricing data and more uncertainty in demand projections.{% endif %}
 
 {% if avg_opportunity_score %}The average **<a href="/{{ language }}/market-score" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-family:'Bricolage Grotesque',sans-serif;font-weight:800;color:#0F172A;letter-spacing:-0.02em">padelnomics</span> Opportunity Score</a> of {{ avg_opportunity_score }}/100** shows how much investment potential remains untapped in {{ country_name_en }}. {% if avg_opportunity_score >= 60 and avg_market_score < 40 %}The combination of a high Opportunity Score and a moderate Market Score makes {{ country_name_en }} particularly attractive for new entrants: demand potential and sports culture are there, infrastructure is still building — first-mover conditions for well-chosen locations.{% elif avg_opportunity_score >= 60 %}Despite an already active market, locations with significant potential remain — particularly in mid-size cities and at the periphery of major metro areas.{% else %}Many locations in {{ country_name_en }} are already well-served. New projects need careful site selection and a clear differentiation strategy to compete.{% endif %}{% endif %}
 

web/src/padelnomics/scripts/seed_dev_data.py

@@ -284,6 +284,184 @@ LEADS = [
 ]
 
 
+AFFILIATE_PRODUCTS = [
+    # Rackets
+    {
+        "slug": "bullpadel-vertex-04-amazon",
+        "name": "Bullpadel Vertex 04",
+        "brand": "Bullpadel",
+        "category": "racket",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST01?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 17999,
+        "rating": 4.7,
+        "pros": '["Carbon-Rahmen für maximale Power", "Diamant-Form für aggressive Spieler", "Sehr gute Balance"]',
+        "cons": '["Nur für fortgeschrittene Spieler", "Höherer Preis"]',
+        "description": "Der Vertex 04 ist der Flaggschiff-Schläger von Bullpadel für Power-Spieler.",
+        "status": "active",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 1,
+    },
+    {
+        "slug": "head-delta-pro-amazon",
+        "name": "HEAD Delta Pro",
+        "brand": "HEAD",
+        "category": "racket",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST02?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 14999,
+        "rating": 4.5,
+        "pros": '["Sehr kontrollorientiert", "Ideal für Defensivspieler", "Leicht"]',
+        "cons": '["Weniger Power als Diamant-Formen"]',
+        "description": "Runde Form mit perfekter Kontrolle — ideal für Einsteiger und Defensivspieler.",
+        "status": "active",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 2,
+    },
+    {
+        "slug": "adidas-metalbone-30-amazon",
+        "name": "Adidas Metalbone 3.0",
+        "brand": "Adidas",
+        "category": "racket",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST03?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 18999,
+        "rating": 4.8,
+        "pros": '["Brutale Power", "Hochwertige Verarbeitung", "Sehr beliebt auf Pro-Tour"]',
+        "cons": '["Teuer", "Gewöhnungsbedürftig"]',
+        "description": "Das Flaggschiff von Adidas Padel — getragen von den besten Profis der Welt.",
+        "status": "active",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 3,
+    },
+    {
+        "slug": "wilson-bela-pro-v2-amazon",
+        "name": "Wilson Bela Pro v2",
+        "brand": "Wilson",
+        "category": "racket",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST04?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 16999,
+        "rating": 4.6,
+        "pros": '["Bekannter Signature-Schläger", "Gute Mischung aus Power und Kontrolle"]',
+        "cons": '["Fortgeschrittene bevorzugt"]',
+        "description": "Der Schläger von Fernando Belasteguín — einer der meistgekauften Schläger weltweit.",
+        "status": "active",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 4,
+    },
+    # Beginner racket — draft (tests that draft products are excluded from public)
+    {
+        "slug": "dunlop-aero-star-amazon",
+        "name": "Dunlop Aero Star",
+        "brand": "Dunlop",
+        "category": "racket",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST05?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 8999,
+        "rating": 4.2,
+        "pros": '["Günstig", "Für Einsteiger ideal"]',
+        "cons": '["Wenig Power für Fortgeschrittene"]',
+        "description": "Solider Einsteigerschläger für unter 90 Euro.",
+        "status": "draft",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 5,
+    },
+    # Shoes
+    {
+        "slug": "adidas-adipower-ctrl-amazon",
+        "name": "Adidas Adipower Ctrl",
+        "brand": "Adidas",
+        "category": "shoe",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST10?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 9999,
+        "rating": 4.4,
+        "pros": '["Hervorragender Halt auf Sand", "Leicht und atmungsaktiv"]',
+        "cons": '["Größenfehler möglich — eine Größe größer bestellen"]',
+        "description": "Professioneller Padelschuh mit optimierter Sohle für Sand- und Kunstrasencourts.",
+        "status": "active",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 1,
+    },
+    {
+        "slug": "babolat-jet-premura-amazon",
+        "name": "Babolat Jet Premura",
+        "brand": "Babolat",
+        "category": "shoe",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST11?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 11999,
+        "rating": 4.6,
+        "pros": '["Sehr leicht", "Gute Dämpfung", "Stylisches Design"]',
+        "cons": '["Teurer als Mitbewerber"]',
+        "description": "Ultraleichter Padelschuh von Babolat — ideal für schnelle Spieler.",
+        "status": "active",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 2,
+    },
+    # Balls
+    {
+        "slug": "head-padel-pro-balls-amazon",
+        "name": "HEAD Padel Pro Bälle (3er-Dose)",
+        "brand": "HEAD",
+        "category": "ball",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST20?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 799,
+        "rating": 4.5,
+        "pros": '["Offizieller Turnierball", "Guter Druckerhalt", "Günstig"]',
+        "cons": '["Bei intensivem Spiel nach 4–5 Sessions platter"]',
+        "description": "Offizieller Turnierball von HEAD — der am häufigsten gespielte Padelball in Europa.",
+        "status": "active",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 1,
+    },
+    # Grips/Accessories
+    {
+        "slug": "bullpadel-overgrip-3er-amazon",
+        "name": "Bullpadel Overgrip (3er-Pack)",
+        "brand": "Bullpadel",
+        "category": "grip",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST30?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 499,
+        "rating": 4.3,
+        "pros": '["Günstig", "Guter Halt auch bei Schweiß", "Einfach zu wechseln"]',
+        "cons": '["Hält weniger lang als Originalgriff"]',
+        "description": "Günstiges Overgrip-Set — jeder Padelspieler sollte regelmäßig wechseln.",
+        "status": "active",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 1,
+    },
+    {
+        "slug": "nox-padel-bag-amazon",
+        "name": "NOX ML10 Schläger-Tasche",
+        "brand": "NOX",
+        "category": "accessory",
+        "retailer": "Amazon",
+        "affiliate_url": "https://www.amazon.de/dp/B0CXTEST40?tag=padelnomics-21",
+        "price_cents": 5999,
+        "rating": 4.4,
+        "pros": '["Platz für 2 Schläger", "Gepolstertes Schlägerfach", "Robustes Material"]',
+        "cons": '["Kein Schuhfach"]',
+        "description": "Praktische Padelschläger-Tasche mit Platz für 2 Schläger und Zubehör.",
+        "status": "active",
+        "language": "de",
+        "sort_order": 1,
+    },
+]
+
+# Article slugs for realistic click referrers
+_ARTICLE_SLUGS = [
+    "beste-padelschlaeger-2026",
+    "padelschlaeger-anfaenger",
+    "padelschuhe-test",
+    "padelbaelle-vergleich",
+    "padel-zubehoer",
+]
+
+
 def main():
     db_path = DATABASE_PATH
     if not Path(db_path).exists():
@@ -481,6 +659,72 @@ def main():
                 )
                 logger.info("  PadelTech unlocked lead #%s", lead_id)
 
+    # 7. Seed affiliate products
+    logger.info("Seeding %s affiliate products...", len(AFFILIATE_PRODUCTS))
+    product_ids: dict[str, int] = {}
+    for p in AFFILIATE_PRODUCTS:
+        existing = conn.execute(
+            "SELECT id FROM affiliate_products WHERE slug = ? AND language = ?",
+            (p["slug"], p["language"]),
+        ).fetchone()
+        if existing:
+            product_ids[p["slug"]] = existing["id"]
+            logger.info("  %s already exists (id=%s)", p["name"], existing["id"])
+            continue
+        cursor = conn.execute(
+            """INSERT INTO affiliate_products
+               (slug, name, brand, category, retailer, affiliate_url,
+                price_cents, currency, rating, pros, cons, description,
+                status, language, sort_order)
+               VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, 'EUR', ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)""",
+            (
+                p["slug"], p["name"], p["brand"], p["category"], p["retailer"],
+                p["affiliate_url"], p["price_cents"], p["rating"],
+                p["pros"], p["cons"], p["description"],
+                p["status"], p["language"], p["sort_order"],
+            ),
+        )
+        product_ids[p["slug"]] = cursor.lastrowid
+        logger.info("  %s -> id=%s (%s)", p["name"], cursor.lastrowid, p["status"])
+
+    # 8. Seed affiliate clicks (realistic 30-day spread for dashboard charts)
+    logger.info("Seeding affiliate clicks...")
+    import random
+    rng = random.Random(42)
+    # click distribution: more on popular rackets, fewer on accessories
+    click_weights = [
+        ("bullpadel-vertex-04-amazon", "beste-padelschlaeger-2026", 52),
+        ("adidas-metalbone-30-amazon", "beste-padelschlaeger-2026", 41),
+        ("head-delta-pro-amazon", "padelschlaeger-anfaenger", 38),
+        ("wilson-bela-pro-v2-amazon", "padelschlaeger-anfaenger", 29),
+        ("adidas-adipower-ctrl-amazon", "padelschuhe-test", 24),
+        ("babolat-jet-premura-amazon", "padelschuhe-test", 18),
+        ("head-padel-pro-balls-amazon", "padelbaelle-vergleich", 15),
+        ("bullpadel-overgrip-3er-amazon", "padel-zubehoer", 11),
+        ("nox-padel-bag-amazon", "padel-zubehoer", 8),
+    ]
+    existing_click_count = conn.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM affiliate_clicks").fetchone()[0]
+    if existing_click_count == 0:
+        for slug, article_slug, count in click_weights:
+            pid = product_ids.get(slug)
+            if not pid:
+                continue
+            for _ in range(count):
+                days_ago = rng.randint(0, 29)
+                hours_ago = rng.randint(0, 23)
+                clicked_at = (now - timedelta(days=days_ago, hours=hours_ago)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
+                ip_hash = f"dev_{slug}_{_:04d}"  # stable fake hash (not real SHA256)
+                conn.execute(
+                    """INSERT INTO affiliate_clicks
+                       (product_id, article_slug, referrer, ip_hash, clicked_at)
+                       VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?)""",
+                    (pid, article_slug, f"https://padelnomics.io/de/blog/{article_slug}", ip_hash, clicked_at),
+                )
+        total_clicks = sum(c for _, _, c in click_weights)
+        logger.info("  Inserted %s click events across 9 products", total_clicks)
+    else:
+        logger.info("  Clicks already seeded (%s rows), skipping", existing_click_count)
+
     conn.commit()
     conn.close()